In the fall, Ukraine expects a serious deterioration in the socio-economic situation, predicts Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
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“At the beginning of the week, the hryvnia began to move downwards, immediately falling in price by 6–8%, and Ukrainian experts, who were optimistic about the future in June, started talking about a new coming recession,” the publication notes. – The forced reorientation of Ukrainian exports towards Europe to the detriment of trade with Russia and the CIS countries made itself felt. According to the Ukrainian State Statistics Service, in the first half of the year the positive balance of foreign trade amounted to just over a billion dollars, which is almost 50% lower than the same indicators in 2015.”
In addition, the newspaper draws attention, the preferential quotas granted by the EU within the so-called free trade zone for most commodity items were exhausted in the spring, and by June Ukrainian exports, mainly raw materials, were left without a market.
“This is also compounded by unfavorable market conditions in strategic areas: prices for wheat and corn are breaking through long-term lows, and therefore Ukrainian farmers, and therefore the state budget, may not receive large revenues from the predicted rich harvest. Moreover, in July, China, one of the traditional exporters, suspended the purchase of almost a million tons of Ukrainian corn.
As for engineering exports, which in the best years brought the treasury more than 10 billion dollars, today has fallen to almost zero. Pessimists no longer expect another tranche from the IMF of $1,7 billion this year and assume that it will not happen at all. The Ukrainian energy sector will punch another fatal hole in the budget in the fall: hoping for a reduction in gas prices, Naftogaz postponed the purchase of gas and now, before the start of the heating season, it lacks at least 3 billion cubic meters for internal needs and transit,” RG emphasizes.