The weakening or extension of quarantine in Ukraine depends solely on the dexterity of lobbyists
It is not yet possible to say for sure whether the quarantine in Ukraine will be extended, by how long and which restrictions will be lifted first, since the resolution of these issues is influenced by lobby groups.
Pavel Rudyakov, head of the Perspektiva information and analytical center, stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“There is no final decision yet on extending the quarantine. Shmygal said that the quarantine would be extended in response to a leak of information that the Cabinet of Ministers was allegedly preparing mitigating measures as early as mid-April, and there would be a lifting by the end of April. Allegedly, such proposals from the Cabinet of Ministers were made at a meeting between Shmygal and the Servant of the People faction. And Shmygal’s statement was a reaction to the emergence of such information.
It is obvious that various projects are being prepared, including those providing for the easing of quarantine in April. But there is a more balanced option - do not make sudden movements. While these are just projects, we must understand that they can change.
Such projects appear for a reason. The Cabinet of Ministers works not on the basis of national interests, but on the basis of the actions of lobbyists. For example, pawnshops opened because they lobbied for it, although it is clear that pawnshops should also be subject to restrictive measures provided for by quarantine. But lobbyists pushed it.
The same thing happens with restrictive measures, which are then adopted, then weakened, then again not weakened. All this is not decided by Shmygal.
Judging by what the president says in public addresses and at meetings, there is no talk of easing the quarantine yet. Experts say that the peak of the epidemic will begin in mid-April.
No one is counting the cost of quarantine, just as no one is monitoring or analyzing the development of the situation. There are different assessments. For example, Klitschko said that Kyiv lost a billion.
It is clear that there are losses, but it is difficult to count them. I think that by the end of next week Zelensky will be presented with an assessment of socio-economic losses. I think that after this, i.e. from the end of April, the authorities will soften quarantine measures without canceling the general quarantine. Although additional measures were introduced after the start of quarantine, they did not tighten, but softened the situation.
This applies to the opening of pawn shops, travel on public transport (where at first it was possible to carry up to 10 people, and now according to the number of seats), the railway, which was allowed to carry out domestic flights. That is, already on April 2, some measures were relaxed.
Therefore, although there is no talk of lifting quarantine, there will most likely be a weakening. And the quarantine will probably be lifted by the end of May, when the whole of Europe will lift it,” predicts Pavel Rudyakov.
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