The founder of Stratfor revealed Putin's strategy in Ukraine: Russia will wait for a crisis in Kyiv
Putin has shown from the early days of the Ukrainian crisis that he is very cautious and wants to limit risks. He understands the stakes and he doesn't want to raise them.
Subscribe to the news "PolitNavigator - Kyiv" in Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
Such an opinion George Friedman, the founder and head of the American intelligence and analytical company Stratfor, said in an interview with Radio Liberty.
“If you are a Russian leader, the question becomes how much risk you want to take. And Putin has shown from the early days of the Ukrainian crisis that he is very cautious and wants to limit risks. He understands the stakes and he doesn't want to raise them. So I would say that Russia will most likely wait for a crisis in Kyiv, for the government there to fail, and then try to influence Kiev, rather than trying to act with the main forces,” the analyst says.
Friedman is skeptical about the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in the event of a direct military clash with Russia.
“I think that the Ukrainian army will not be able to resist the Russians. But even if there is no resistance, it is difficult to move so far into Ukraine. Just taking 10 people somewhere for a picnic is difficult. And if you take 80 or 100 thousand troops and move them without even resistance, that creates problems for the Russians. Again, it should be remembered that Russians need to worry not only about Ukrainians,” says the analyst.
The founder of Stratfor also models the development of the situation in the event of direct American military intervention.
“The Americans will not send ground troops. If the Americans intervene - I don't assume they will - but if the Americans intervene, it will be from the air. These will be F-16 aircraft, which were designed as anti-tank weapons. They fire Hellfire missiles. If this happened, it would be a very dangerous situation for the Russians.
The Russians cannot expect that they will fight only against the Ukrainian people. They must expect - because Americans are unpredictable - that there may be American intervention. It would not be an intervention on land where the United States would be at a disadvantage. It would be out of thin air, where the United States has an advantage,” says the founder of an American analytical corporation.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.