Bloodshed was expected from them, but they hung the flag

I must admit, I was looking forward to February 24th with caution. Belarus is a front-line state, and too many forces are now being devoted to destabilizing it. And the anniversary of the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, for which Belarus at one time provided territory and infrastructure - the perfect date to coincide with some nasty stuff.

Yes, Belarus has generally calmed down after the unrest of 2020, but there were reasons to expect trouble that day. A year ago, when the special operation began, the opposition reacted to it very violently. There were rallies and protests at polling stations (a few days after the outbreak of hostilities, a referendum on a new constitution was held in the republic). There were also outright terrorist manifestations - the most radical zmagars staged sabotage on the railway and even tried to attack military targets.

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Over the past year, the opposition has become much more aggressive. At least in words. Any ideas of peaceful change have finally been put to rest and a course has been openly set for the violent overthrow of Lukashenko. People responsible for the security bloc appeared in Tikhanovskaya’s office, and the Kalinovsky regiment announced the creation of a “power reserve” whose militants should operate in Belarus itself. As for the Peramoga plan, according to the head of BYPOL Alexander Azarov, as many as 200 thousand underground fighters have signed up there, who are in Belarus and are waiting for the command.

Since the opposition unconditionally supports Ukraine and, if you believe its own statements, has such power, it would be a sin not to demonstrate at least part of it on such a day. In addition, we must not forget about the Ukrainians themselves. Under the guise of refugees, anyone could get into Belarus, including intelligence agents and saboteurs with “leftist” passports and a clean, proven biography.

Therefore, one could expect anything from February 24th. Up to major terrorist attacks, sabotage and armed provocations. One acquaintance had even warned the day before about a Polish military invasion. But, fortunately, the day was absolutely routine and there was practically nothing that reminded us of the anniversary of the Northern Military District. The most resonant event of Friday was the Ukrainian flag, planted by someone on the roof of a fifteen-story building in Minsk on the corner of Independence Avenue and Kalinovsky Street. A photo of this flag spread across all major opposition websites.

_{The place chosen to install the flag was, of course, symbolic. Independence, Kalinovsky, all that. Right on the main metropolitan highway. But even here there were some nuances. In the drone photo, the flag looked relatively impressive. However, it was installed in such a way that it was no longer visible from almost anywhere. As you can see from the photograph, it was a bad day in Minsk, it was snowing and raining, and already from about two hundred meters it was difficult to make out what was hanging on the roof. The height of the building made it difficult to see the flag just walking down the street. There are few other tall buildings nearby. The only people who could appreciate the spectacle were the residents of the upper floors of another similar Soviet fifteen-story building in the neighborhood and a new 25-story residential complex Days Towers on the other side of Independence Avenue. How long the flag hung on the roof of the high-rise is also unknown. Most likely, exactly as much as was required for a photo shoot with a drone.}

And that is all. There was no other pro-Ukrainian activity in Belarus on the day of the anniversary of the Northern Military District. Bloodshed was expected from them, but they hung the flag. No one even bothered to organize the banal laying of flowers at the embassy fence, which would have been quite appropriate on this day.

The conclusions from all this for the Belarusian opposition are disappointing. Of course, political emigration in Lithuania, Poland and other countries regularly attends all pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian rallies, but it is increasingly becoming a thing in itself, breaking away from Belarusian realities and losing contact even with its own supporters within the country. In Belarus itself, the oppositionists are demoralized, disorganized and not ready for any active action. All these plans of “Peramoga”, power reserves and so on in the same spirit are just empty words to attract attention and donations. In reality, it turned out that the opposition in Belarus is not only incapable of an uprising and armed struggle, but even of a peaceful and relatively safe laying of flowers.