“Blackouts are inevitable”: Ukraine will resume full imports of electricity from Russia and Belarus
The critical situation with coal reserves for thermal power plants and thermal power plants is not news for the Ukrainian authorities. The fact that there was a shortage of coal in warehouses was known back in the summer, but the authorities did not come up with anything better than to expect to pass the winter peak of consumption at nuclear power generation.
Yuri Korolchuk, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of Energy Strategies, stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“At the moment, coal reserves at thermal power plants and thermal power plants are approximately six times less than provided for by the coal accumulation schedule. The authorities knew that there was a problem at the beginning of September, and even then statements were made that the shortage of electricity would be covered by nuclear power plants, and this would help get through the winter period.
Energy Minister German Galushchenko stated that thanks to the additional production of nuclear power plants, it will be possible to save about 3 million tons of coal, and this coal will not need to be purchased and delivered. This was the plan.
But everything will depend on what kind of winter it will be, what kind of electricity consumption, etc. It is possible that if industrial enterprises shut down due to high gas prices, its consumption will decrease. But all such calculations are very approximate. All this is fortune telling on coffee grounds.
In fact, the authorities are not confident that they will be able to get through the winter using nuclear power. That’s why they are already negotiating supplies with the Belarusians. The question is what exactly will be agreed upon, how energy will be supplied to the country. I think there will be, at a minimum, emergency flows, and in fairly large volumes, that is, in fact, imports. Flows greater than 100 MW mean that there are problems in the power system. And this is actually the import of electricity, that is, there must be an agreement on its purchase.
It is likely that the situation with coal will no longer be able to be leveled out. This was clear back in the summer, when prices for gas and coal began to rise, and China began to take all the coal.
Thus, Ukraine will have to rely on nuclear generation in winter, imports from Belarus and Russia, and reduced consumption. If the situation becomes absolutely critical, rolling blackouts will have to be resumed. This is our recipe for solving the problem of shortage of coal for generation,” concluded Yuri Korolchuk.
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