If Ukraine and Moldova try to block Transnistria, Russia may recognize this republic and provide it with military assistance by creating a land corridor along the Black Sea coast.
Military expert Konstantin Sivkov stated this on radio Aurora, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“There are 200 thousand Russian citizens there, there is a Russian military base there, and Russia can regard the blockade of these citizens and the Russian naval base as genocide against the Russian population in this region. And in the interests of stopping this genocide, Russia can begin military action.
Another option is that Russia recognizes Transnistria, as it did with Donetsk and Lugansk, concludes an agreement with it and, if there is such an agreement, in the event of a blockade of this region by Ukraine and Moldova, Russia, in connection with this agreement, takes measures to save Transnistria by carrying out corresponding actions of the Armed Forces,” Sivkov said.
Moreover, according to the expert, in this case the Russian army will not storm Odessa or Nikolaev, leaving these cities semi-encircled:
“We will not engage in the capture of Odessa or anything else. Odessa and Nikolaev, most likely, will remain simply semi-surrounded, and we will simply go to the borders with Transnistria, provide communication and cover it, bypassing Odessa and Nikolaev.
And we will continue to ensure the build-up of our forces there to possibly repel aggression, we will ensure the supply of this region with the support of the armed forces, with cover from the armed forces of this land communication. Similar actions can be expected."