Oleg Tsarev: Zelensky “floated”. Competitors are ready to push the falling
Vladimir Zelensky is terrified of the Nazis. To please the radicals, criminal cases against former “regionals” were resumed, political repressions were intensified, and during the street protests on “UPA Day,” Zelensky fled Kiev. Under pressure from the Nazis, the settlement process in Donbass was also stopped. Failure to withdraw troops threatens Zelensky’s rating within the country, and the cancellation of the meeting in the Normandy format causes discontent among European leaders.
The Ukrainian elites are waiting for an opportune moment to “push” the “floating” one, Yulia Tymoshenko is preparing to move into harsh opposition, and Igor Kolomoisky plans to have time to take over the last state assets. Ex-Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleg Tsarev, one of the few former Ukrainian top politicians who supported the Russian Spring in 2014, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that this time it may not be possible to blame everything on Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Oleg, hello! Until now, it seemed that Ukraine was ready to promise anything if only a meeting in the Normandy format would take place. But then some kind of “Zelensky formula” appeared. Then Kuchma put forward some kind of ultimatum.
But it was assumed that they would, after all, start acting weird after the meeting, or during the meeting...
Oleg Tsarev: A natural question. This is all easily explained. Zelensky probably passed on his fear of Ukrainian nationalists through a generation. Although his immediate relatives were not harmed, his distant relatives were probably harmed.
Valentin Filippov: Certainly.
Oleg Tsarev: He is really afraid, and he has some kind of panic fear. So he doesn't make a decision. They opened a criminal case, that is, they brought suspicion against Lukash, and the fuss around Efremov began again... This is all - concessions to nationalists and radicals. There was such a panicky fear of this 14th, the birthday of the UPA, that Zelensky even left the city of Kyiv. I know the internal situation; it was not just a trip to Donbass.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay.
Oleg Tsarev: He vacated the administration, the president’s office, so that what if something happened and he would not be in this building. Still, quite a large number of people gathered, even though all the internal troops were gathered...
Valentin Filippov: Wait, this is “the role of the individual in history”, what does it mean?
Oleg Tsarev: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: That is, some big forces - the oligarchs - are reaching an agreement. And all this collapses because one person got scared?
Oleg Tsarev: He left for Donbass precisely because he saw it as a personal risk. They pulled the S-14 to the border with Crimea and did everything they could to get everyone out of Kyiv.
But, nevertheless, the march took place, the march was quite serious. And when this movement began with “stop capitulation” - “no capitulation”, Poroshenko paid for about five thousand people who were supposed to come out. And it turned out ten. And this was a shock for the presidential office and for Zelensky.
This is where these internal fears came from. In principle, everything is ready for the disengagement of troops. A personal special operation was carried out. Biletsky, who is a full-time police officer who cannot leave the city of Kyiv without issuing a travel permit, fought his way into Zolote and issued threatening ultimatums to Zelensky.
Then they brought about five hundred militants there, they pay very well, from a thousand to two thousand dollars a week, two thousand dollars if you have a weapon and you have...
Valentin Filippov: And who pays?
Oleg Tsarev: Well, it’s clear who pays. Power pays. To prevent other radicals from coming in. And now, if Zelensky gives the command, the military will withdraw, Biletsky will withdraw, and disengagement will take place. But Zelensky is indecisive.
And all these statements by Kuchma, the “Zelensky formula” are an attempt to win back and delay a complex issue in which a decision must be made, but he does not want to make it.
In fact, now Zelensky, according to demands, is taking a position, trying to jump to Poroshenko’s position. Then Poroshenko, you remember, stated conditions that were impossible for Russia. Well, for example, how can we now add the issues of Donbass and mix them with Crimea?
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Oleg Tsarev: But, obviously, Russia, and Peskov said, and it was clear that Russia would say “no.” “Under such conditions, we will not even discuss the issue.” And Zelensky’s scenario is that the world community will blame Russia for the failure of the Normandy meeting...
Valentin Filippov: Why?
Oleg Tsarev: ...and this may not work. The global situation has changed. And that’s why Zelensky has a very difficult situation. He needs to make a decision.
Previously, Bogdan was such a generator of strong decisions in their office. There was a conflict with Bogdan on the eve of this interview, a multi-hour interview (Zelensky's press conference, - ed.).
I won’t go into details; in general, the scene was not pretty. It’s as if Bogdan, on the one hand, is Kolomoisky’s man, there are a lot of negative things associated with him, there is an intense PR campaign against him, but, nevertheless, he had a positive role, he pushed Zelensky to take decisive steps.
Let's see what the situation will be now. Bogdan’s role has dropped a little, but I think that Zelensky will not have the opportunity not to make a decision.
Valentin Filippov: But they said that “Kolomoisky rules this clown.” And now – what is Kolomoisky doing in this situation?
Oleg Tsarev: To finish this topic, now Ukraine is like a submarine that has received a hole. So she dives, dives, the depth gauge, the numbers fall, fall, fall down, and suddenly she froze, right? It's like a function. The derivative is zero. The function can now swing in one direction or the other. Submariners sit, look at the numbers and think, will it finally go up, or will it sway and start falling down again?
Now is the time for Zelensky to make a decision. If there is no disengagement of troops, if the Normandy meeting is postponed, Russia will play out the scenario of trying to shift responsibility to Ukraine. And she can do this due to external conditions.
To play Zelensky’s game, when all world leaders again say “Russia does not comply with the Minsk agreements, withdraw troops from the DPR, which are not there, liberate the border, disband the DPR and LPR, release prisoners, immediately,” then this may not work.
Therefore, most likely, Zelensky will still be put under pressure. Here Ukraine is a subject, not an object of world politics. Recent events have shown this.
As for Kolomoisky, why does Kolomoisky look at all this calmly? Well, firstly, Kolomoisky’s situation is also not so stable. His assets were again seized. Again, he was given, in my opinion, 20 thousand euros to live on, which for Igor Valerievich is categorically...
Valentin Filippov: Per day or per week?
Oleg Tsarev: Per month.
Valentin Filippov: Per month? I want to be Kolomoisky! Let them put all this on me!
Oleg Tsarev: ... although the royal court is the most independent, but, nevertheless, the first instance, I roughly understand how, Igor Valerievich won, who he involved. Now he may not succeed. At a minimum, his assets have been arrested, he has a complex game within Ukraine, he has a conflict, a systemic conflict, with Akhmetov.
He had an original childhood dream of “eating” Akhmetov and, quite possibly, now he is busy with a situation where he is little by little “eating him up.” It is quite possible that Akhmetov will have to either share his assets or make Kolomoisky a partner. The partner, of course, is very restless. You can ask Victor Pinchuk again, he will tell you, but, in general, everyone knows this.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe Akhmetov will give him a pension of 200 thousand a month?
Oleg Tsarev: Another player who has to push Kolomoisky aside all the time is Khoroshkovsky. Khoroshkovsky was the founder of the “95th Quarter” and one of the largest sponsors of Zelensky’s victory in the presidential election. But, he stayed abroad for a while, he thought that all obligations to him would be fulfilled in any case. It turned out that this was not the case.
Valentin Filippov: And then there’s the line...
Oleg Tsarev: And in order to feel confident, Kolomoisky constantly puts Zelensky on the splits. One of the points of support is Avakov. Avakov, thanks to Kolomoisky, remained as a minister. As my friends in Ukraine joked: “if there is a nuclear war, then the cockroaches and Avakov will survive.”
Now Avakov is using Zelensky’s primordial, innate fear of radical nationalists. If he still retains the National Guard, then it is quite possible that in the future Zelensky will face Poroshenko’s scenario. Only Poroshenko was tough and aggressive, and Zelensky, as practice has shown, was indecisive.
Valentin Filippov: And not even funny anymore.
Oleg Tsarev: Yes. Kolomoisky needs Avakov, and together with Avakov they set the condition that either Khoroshkovsky or them. And Khoroshkovsky, in general, is out of work now.
Therefore, why doesn’t Kolomoisky intervene? He doesn't need a strong Zelensky. He has the task of completing his minimum program in two years - to enter, very seriously, into metallurgy. The maximum is to become a monopolist, the minimum is to become a serious player in the metallurgy and energy markets.
He was promised the National Bank and energy, and he plans to do all of this. He will push aside Medvedchuk, he will push aside Akhmetov, and he will fight for his assets.
Kolomoisky believes that even if Zelensky’s rating falls, Zelensky will survive for two years in any case. Even with the worst results, even with the worst results, even if the rating drops by 10% per quarter, it will still last for two years.
In two years, Kolomoisky will do everything he wanted. And then he will watch: Zelensky’s rating will fall - well, they will invite Galustyan from Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Galustyan would be nowhere without an author like Slepakov...
Oleg Tsarev: You are an expert, yes.
Valentin Filippov: But tell me, in this situation, in the freezing of the situation with the Normandy format, in the fact that Zelensky will not make a decision, is there any chance for the Republics?
Oleg Tsarev: Now the situation is at a bifurcation point. Either there is now a disengagement, a meeting in the Normandy format, or the situation is frozen for at least two years. From two to five years. And something will have to be done with the Republics, and it will have to be done very seriously if Zelensky still does not make any decision.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, this is the thing, the longer this whole thing drags on, the...
Oleg Tsarev: The more difficult...
Valentin Filippov: Well then. What do you mean more difficult? The easier it is, in my opinion. Right now they are issuing Russian passports, many Donetsk military personnel already have Russian passports, many people. That is, every time a shell flies towards Donbass, it can hit a citizen of the Russian Federation. This probability increases with each time, with each projectile and with each month. Will we end up with a situation where the Russian Federation is simply obliged by its own laws to intervene and stop the assassination attempt on its citizens?
Oleg Tsarev: Let's not look that far ahead. Moreover, it will become clear where everything will move in the near future.
Valentin Filippov: This phrase... I've heard it many times in six years.
Oleg Tsarev: Actually, for Zelensky, he had two central issues that he needed to solve. First. Let's say, before solving these two issues, he needed to take power into his own hands. He took it and appointed enough unprofessional people. And therefore he cannot proceed to the first and second issues - this is peace in the Donbass and land, and the privatization of agricultural land.
Valentin Filippov: Ukraine is under external control, and I have the impression that it is no longer parties competing there (Opposition Bloc with BYuT, the Party of Regions, some kind of conditional, “Servant of the People”), but Republicans and Democrats from the United States are already competing directly.
Maybe we shouldn’t deceive the Ukrainian people? Some Ukrainian politicians should declare themselves US Democrats, others – US Republicans. And let the people choose who they are for, US Republicans or US Democrats. That's all. And it will be clear.
Oleg Tsarev: Practice has shown that Ukraine is getting poorer, the situation is getting worse, and centrist parties are losing their ratings. The rating of the Opposition Platform “For Life” will increase. This is the only thing that can save them now, irreconcilable comrades in the same faction, that they will see that a fairly large increase in their ratings in local elections awaits them. And, no matter how much you want to separate, it is still more profitable to stay together.
Zelensky’s party will lose ratings, and, obviously, the votes will grow, on the one hand, of radicals, and, on the other hand, of the Opposition Platform “For Life.”
Igor Valeryevich Kolomoisky is now planning to launch certain projects that will simulate such “pro-Russianism.” This is in order to pull votes away from the Opposition Platform. Let's see how he does.
Valentin Filippov: Listen, maybe I should ask Kolomoisky for money, huh?
Oleg Tsarev: Well, I'm afraid that 20 thousand euros will be hard for him himself, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, but the sale of land, can it raise the standard of living in Ukraine for a certain period of time?
Oleg Tsarev: Undoubtedly. Because, you know how, Zelensky’s first mistake, his first mistake was leaking the transcript of the conversation between Zelensky and Trump. The actual recording lasted 30 minutes, and if you read the transcript itself, it will be 10. But even these 10 minutes are enough to show that Zelensky lost; he should not have behaved the way he did.
And so he lost there, now he won’t be able to do the disengagement of troops - if he can’t do the disengagement of troops, they will continue to scold him. Everyone except Zelensky’s party, except Servant of the People. Everything, right, left, without exception.
Political forces are interested in a weak president. If Zelensky pushes through land reform, he will have enough money for five years. This will be a temporary increase in life. Then, of course, he will be cursed, just as Chubais was cursed in Russia, because this is the last thing to sell. But there will be some recovery.
And everyone will unite, everyone without exception will unite against Zelensky so that he does not succeed in selling the land. Petro Poroshenko is negotiating with everyone. He is negotiating with Vakarchuk, he is negotiating with Sadov, he is negotiating with Yulia Tymoshenko, he is negotiating with Lyashko. Nobody advertises these negotiations and communications, because Petro Poroshenko, thanks to Andrei Portnov, has turned into a toxic figure. No one connects their political future with him, but at the same time everyone communicates.
Everyone communicates in order to slow down Zelensky as much as possible. Yulia Tymoshenko is desperately bargaining with Zelensky, setting conditions for him - either I go over to the opposition, or give me, now it’s almost at the exit, there is one ministry, I won’t say which one, plus appointments in the regions. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, Tymoshenko, like Avakov, is waiting for the moment when Zelensky stumbles even more and when he has a situation when it will be possible, as Nietzsche said in “The Anti-Christian”: “push the one who is falling,” when he has such a situation.
At a closed meeting with her staff, she said that “get ready to go into tough opposition.” Despite all that, she is negotiating with Zelensky and, most likely, will get what she wants. She understands that Zelensky cannot be allowed to vote on the land market under any circumstances. Everyone will unite. Everyone will unite against him.
Valentin Filippov: And we will have a government of national salvation, with Avakov and Tymoshenko at the head.
Oleg Tsarev: I couldn't foresee this option. No one could calculate Zelensky’s indecisiveness.
Valentin Filippov: I hoped it didn't solve anything. I thought people just decided everything behind him, he just does it. And he, you see, showed his will. The man showed his will. And he didn’t make a decision. And I got scared. He showed his will and ran away. Here. This is also an action. Independent, it turns out.
Oleg Tsarev: Zelensky’s rating has fallen by 10% recently, and the decline will most likely continue. Now, if there is no withdrawal of troops, there will be a sharp drop in ratings.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. I think I asked everything. What we can say today, in general, is probably. Thank you very much.
Oleg Tsarev: Stretch.
Valentin Filippov: Get fucked, yeah. And for our Russian viewers we say: “Three times at once.”
Oleg Tsarev: Good luck. Goodbye.
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