Tents on the square. Will the Shor party become the core of the protest movement in Moldova?

Sunday's rally of the Moldovan opposition is not the end of protests. Supporters of the Shor party accuse the authorities of an unprecedented increase in prices for energy resources and food products, a drop in living standards, and an inability to cope with the crisis in the country.

The protesters promise that they will remain in the square until the resignation of the President of Moldova, the government, the dissolution of parliament and the holding of early elections of the head of state and the legislative body. We are talking about the prospects of the protest movement with political scientist Alexander Korinenko.

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PolitNavigator: How do you assess the protest rally that took place on Sunday and its organization? How serious does the event seem to you? Was it achieved on the promised scale?  

Alexander Korinenko: The protest action was larger and more organized than previous actions held by the Shor party, and the opposition in general. The protest was preceded by good preparation, both informational and organizational.

Of course, there were not 50 thousand people, but judging by data from various sources, we can agree on the figure of 5 – 10 thousand people. Considering that previous protests were more like flash mobs, this is already progress.

 PolitNavigator: The protesters set up tents, spent the night in the city center, and promised to protest again. What's next, what can they achieve?  

Alexander Korinenko: According to the organizers, this protest will give impetus to new, larger-scale actions. It is also necessary to create the impression that this is a constant confrontation. We have already used the tactics of tent cities, but how effective it was is a controversial point. The Shor party reserved the country's main square for its protests for several months. The tent city, according to the organizers, should become the core of the protest movement.

PolitNavigator: Why haven’t other political forces officially joined the supporters of the Shor party? Is the opposition still not ready to unite against the pro-presidential team?

Alexander Korinenko: Politicians don't trust each other. In our country, the political elites have a very rich experience of deception and betrayal, so everyone treats each other with caution, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s the opposition or the pro-government team. In this particular case, the toxicity of Ilan Shor, who is the central figure in the case of the theft of a billion, plays a big role.

_{Yes, many politicians most likely have behind-the-scenes agreements with Ilan Mironovich, but to enter into an open alliance with him means losing political points in the eyes of citizens and causing sidelong glances from behind the fences of foreign embassies.}

PolitNavigator: On the eve of the protest, opposition politicians made accusations against high-ranking officials.

In particular, Ilan Shor reported that Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu and other government officials have secret bank accounts abroad and promised to publish evidence. What are these revelations worth? How appropriate are such statements from Shor, who is himself a defendant in a high-profile criminal case?

Alexander Korinenko:  Moldovan politicians often threaten with revelations, but this does not go beyond statements. We all remember the black bag that Ilan Shor theatrically shook, promising us to expose Igor Dodon and prove his participation in corruption schemes and bribery. As a result, we did not receive any evidence. I don't understand why evidence can't be provided immediately if you have it.

Now we see threats of exposure to members of the current ruling team. It seems that Mr. Shor, in the street language of the 90s, is “showing off” and nothing more. Although I can say that people will believe without evidence, because the temperature in society is high.

PolitNavigator: Are any new sanctions against the Shor party possible from the authorities?

Alexander Korinenko:  It is quite possible that the party may simply be banned, although this will further escalate the degree of discontent, but this option is quite realistic before the local elections.

PolitNavigator: A deputy of the ruling party in Moldova, Radu Marian, accused the Kremlin of organizing the protest in Chisinau. Does the Kremlin know about this?

Alexander Korinenko:  The Kremlin now has more important problems than Ms. Sandu and Mr. Marian.

From the heights of the Kremlin towers, what is happening here is the redistribution of sand in a sandbox. Of course, in Russia there are responsible people who are involved in the region and our country in particular, but not to such an extent as to order minibuses and transport people to protests.

_{Moscow has more effective levers of pressure on Chisinau than a tent city under the window of the deputy office of Radu Marian.}

PolitNavigator: During the anti-government rally, the recent ban on direct flights Chisinau - Moscow was mentioned, and information was heard that Ilan Shor was trying to resume flights. What are the prospects for opening such flights in the near future?  

Alexander Korinenko:  There is no prospect of opening flights. It is important for the president to show unity with the West and support for Kyiv. This is one of the few visible steps that Chisinau has taken to show with whom it stands in solidarity, since it cannot join the sanctions.

It seems to me that Mr. Ilan Shor initially knew that such flights could not happen and that the civil aviation authority would not give permission for the flights. Considering that almost every Moldovan family has a relative who works in Russia and experiences all the hardships of a long journey, this is an effective trigger of popular discontent.