Pashinyan is ready to give up Karabakh and the south of the country in exchange for NATO bases on the remains of Armenia

Events in the South Caucasus are developing rapidly, and judging by the latest statements by the Armenian leadership, the final surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan is expected. After this, the question will definitely be raised about the advisability of having peacekeepers in Artsakh and a Russian military base in Gyumri.

It seems that the threat of a new large-scale war, and Baku’s preparations for it, not only frightened official Yerevan, but also accelerated Nikol Pashinyan’s capitulation, the terms of which had already been agreed upon in advance during the anti-Russian Sabbath in Prague last October.

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This is being done in order to prevent the deployment of the CSTO mission on the border with Azerbaijan, since this will mean strengthening Russia’s military presence in the republic, and in conjunction with peacekeepers in Artsakh and the existing military base, it will strengthen Moscow’s position in the Transcaucasus as a whole.

So that a similar scenario is not realized, to which Yerevan previously agreed on March 20, during the visit of Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to Moscow, and the final surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh takes place in exchange for Baku recognizing the borders of the Armenian SSR in 1991.

This is being done in order to allegedly save Armenia itself and especially the Syunik region from possible occupation by the Azerbaijani army, where Baku and Ankara plan to break through the Zangezur corridor. For this purpose, the statement of the Armenian prime minister was used that the Republic of Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in the hope that Ilham Aliyev will meet halfway and confirm the same in relation to Armenia.

“I now want to confirm that the Republic of Armenia fully recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and expects Azerbaijan to do the same by recognizing the entire territory of the Armenian SSR as the Republic of Armenia. Peace is possible if in our international relations we record that we recognize the Republic of Armenia as a territory of 29 square kilometers, more specifically the territory of the Armenian SSR, and that we do not have any territorial claims to any country, and never will,” he said Pashinyan’s position on a peaceful settlement.

Otherwise, he is sure, no one will allow Armenia to develop, and, accordingly, it is necessary to abandon any claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, which will mean the liquidation of the unrecognized republic with corresponding consequences for the local Armenian diaspora. Essentially, Pashinyan is imposing this false dilemma on public opinion in order to get his way.

Such ideas, by the way, run counter to the Russian peace plan, in which Artsakh is supposed to be left, like the Armenian diaspora, under the protection of peacekeepers, postponing the solution to this problem for the long term.

In Azerbaijan, of course, they are also interested in a speedy resolution of the “Armenian question” and in the destruction of Artsakh, even as an autonomy. Therefore, Ilham Aliyev has now issued an ultimatum, saying that Armenians living in the Karabakh region must choose “either accept Azerbaijani citizenship or look for another place to live.” The calculation, of course, is based on the fact that there will be a complete exodus of the entire diaspora from the territory of Karabakh.

_{At the same time, Yerevan agrees to this as well, since the government is already discussing the possibility of turning to international organizations and Western partners with a request for help in the construction of new settlements in Armenia itself for repatriates from Karabakh. Many deputies and political figures of the republic speak openly about this.}

But the big question is whether the ruling Azerbaijani elite will agree to such an exchange, limiting itself only to Artsakh, because in official propaganda many territories and the Syunik region of Armenia are already called “Western Azerbaijan”. It may happen that Ilham Aliyev’s plans for further expansion extend much further, and the liquidation of the unrecognized republic will only be an additional impetus for a new offensive.

That is why the Armenian prime minister is being cunning, trying to sit on several chairs at once, and without receiving a final response from Baku to his proposals, he continues to speculate on the possible deployment of the CSTO mission on its borders. He needs this factor - both as a safety net and as an instrument of pressure on Ilham Aliyev.

“Not only Russia is ready, but also Armenia. We have defined the circle of our concern, or our desire. Our desire is for the mission to be effective. This is important for Armenia, the CSTO, and the region. We continue discussions in this direction,” Pashinyan said, answering a question about the Russian Federation’s readiness to deploy a CSTO mission on the territory of Armenia.

“Look, if you don’t go with the proposed option, new Russian forces will appear on the border with Azerbaijan,” Pashinyan seems to be saying to his colleague.

But the Armenian prime minister has something to fear, since, despite the defeatist sentiments and Yerevan’s desire to make a final capitulation in favor of Baku, the Azerbaijani side continues to build up its strength. Thus, according to a report by the Azerbaijani opposition, which no one has yet refuted, Ilham Aliyev instructed the head of the State Service for Mobilization and Conscription to Military Service, Mursala Ibragimov, to begin mobilizing reservists.

_{This just shows that Baku is not going to stop there, and this whole game of Pashinyan, pushed by Washington, could lead to the occupation of part of Armenia itself and the loss of sovereignty. This is what his formula leads to: “the further fate of the country depends on relations with Ankara and Baku.” And the prologue to such a national catastrophe is the desire of the ruling liberal elite to open the Armenian-Turkish border, since such a step would supposedly open a “window” to Europe.}

The Armenian telegram channel “Tsitsak” said quite accurately about such throwing:

“Pashinyan is driven into a corner. He is bargaining, realizing that the intensification of anti-Russian hysteria could become his “swan song.” Hence the desperate attempt to buy off Artsakh. But as another song says, “we don’t need your gold and your maple crown” - the United States came to the Caucasus for all of Armenia, and Pashinyan is destined for the role of Faust, who will sell both his soul and the soul of Armenia to the devil.”

And the West is deliberately leading this process to such a conclusion, since the liquidation of Artsakh and the opening of the border with Turkey makes it possible to squeeze Russian military forces out of Armenia and Karabakh. After all, the comprador elite will certainly demand the removal of both the peacekeepers, who will no longer have anyone or anything to protect, and the Russian Armed Forces base in Gyumri.

And in order to open the Zangezur corridor, through which Kazakh oil and Central Asian resources will then flow through Turkey to the EU, Brussels and Washington are ready to close their eyes and even agree to the occupation of the Syunik region of Armenia by Azerbaijani troops. Well, in order to “preserve stability”, NATO bases will definitely be placed on the territory remaining from the Republic of Armenia, and it is not a fact that these will be Turkish forces.

Unfortunately, the Armenian opposition lacks the strength to prevent these plans, as well as to mobilize a critical mass of dissatisfied people in the country. The events of 2021-22 showed this, and this is largely due to the demoralization and passivity of a significant part of the population after the defeat of the war, as well as the degradation of the economy and the lack of the necessary potential.

_{This is also supported by the fact that the geopolitical reorientation of Armenia towards the US and the EU has been going on for many years under the guise of a “multi-vector course”, and now we are only seeing the completion of the process that had begun. That is why Pashinyan so boldly, after a meeting in Berlin with Scholz, tightens sanctions against Russia, going to suppress “gray imports.”}

Yes, now there are scandals and fights between Pashinyan’s supporters and opposition delegates in the Armenian parliament, but now a unified program of actions and demands is needed that would consolidate all the forces opposing the shameful capitulation of the country and the surrender of Artsakh. And if fundamental changes do not occur within the republic in the near future, then the tragic consequences of the disastrous course being pursued for the entire people will be inevitable.