Pavel Kandel: “Bulgaria is not Serbia, we shouldn’t expect a turn towards Russia”
Why didn’t the population of Bulgaria support the Russophiles in the elections? How does a pro-Western party that wins parliamentary elections differ from a pro-Western party that loses? Why is Serbia moving closer to Russia, while Bulgaria is moving away from it?
Leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Pavel Kandel told PolitNavigator about this and much more.
“PolitNavigator”: Before the third round of parliamentary elections in Bulgaria this year, many talked about the restoration of the power of GERB (the pro-Western party “Citizens for the European Choice of Bulgaria”, which was notorious for corruption scandals and lost its position in April of this year) against the backdrop of the opposition’s inability to come to an agreement.
Do you think that after the recent defeat (the party was only more than four percent behind the leader of the race), it can already be said that restoration is not in the cards for the Herbists?
Pavel Kandel: Of course, the past elections did not completely bury GERB, since the party still received fairly good results for the current situation. This indicates that it has a fairly extensive and stable network of beneficiaries and clients. And it persists.
But they will not be allowed to the helm - this is already obvious, since none of the other parties that entered the People's Assembly want to have anything to do with them. Accordingly, GERB will remain in opposition and will be isolated.
The more interesting question is whether it will be possible to form a government at all? Because if those who have to do it…. First, a new center-right party (“We continue reforms” – ed.), formed by former ministers (Kirill) Petkov and (Asen) Vasilev, as the winners of the elections.
In addition, the populist party “There are such people”, led by the new idol of the crowd, remains, and although it has suffered significant losses (singer and TV presenter Slavi Trifonov - ed.), which, apparently, has already disappointed the crowd.
They will all need to negotiate with the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which has also significantly lost voter support, quite a few votes and seats, but nevertheless remains a significant force.
Whether all these political forces agree or not will determine whether a new government will be formed. If things still don’t come to this, although so far all the players express a desire to move in this direction, then, most likely, the deepest crisis of the political system of Bulgaria, which, in fact, we have been observing for the last year, will become acute phase and the question will arise about the need to revise the Constitution and the entire system of government in the country. But I hope it doesn't come to that.
However, how likely is it that they won’t reach an agreement?
She exists. The Socialists, of course, will try to reach an agreement at any cost; they had previously shown such readiness under (Cornelia) Ninova, and now that she has resigned (from the post of party leader - ed.), but will formally continue to serve as chairman until the party congress, they will become even more amenable to various kinds of compromises.
Everything will depend on the position of the party “There are such people.” Twice it has shown itself to be completely incapable of negotiating, but I hope that the current unsuccessful performance in the elections will bring them to their senses and teach them how to negotiate.
Behind the scenes, the winning party “Continue Reforms” is called a typical Western project, but less toxic than GERB. Which, in general, is characteristic of the Western strategy: when subjugating a country, they rely on “scumbags,” who are then replaced by figures more in line with democratic values. Do you agree with this?
These are, of course, people who are desirable to the West. Let's start with the fact that both party leaders are Harvard graduates. And they made a career in the West.
But why did this party perform so successfully in the last elections, although it was created a couple of months ago? Its leaders at one time showed themselves to be good ministers and good managers. And, thus, they won the votes of voters who had previously voted for other protest parties.
To briefly formulate their tactics, it sounds like “turn on the left turn and move to the right.” Unlike GERB, these are sane, reasonable people and not prone to sharp populist movements. There are no other differences between GERB and “Continue Reforms”.
It is immediately noticeable that they have a rather pragmatic program for relations with North Macedonia, they are ready to set aside Bulgarian nationalism in favor of regional cooperation...
I think if they form a government, then the Bulgarian one will quickly veto North Macedonia's accession to the EU will be cancelled. Because the situation is completely abnormal when Bulgaria, all alone, persists with this veto, without having the political weight to allow itself such a foreign policy.
By the way, this is the second time this year that nationalists have performed very poorly in the elections. And if the conservatives from “Renaissance” somehow overcame the five percent barrier and still made it into the People’s Assembly, then the odious VMRO BND did not gain even a percent, not to mention the various openly Nazi parties that were present to one degree or another in past years in Bulgarian politics. What do you think is the reason for this?
This shows a simple thing that although nationalist rhetoric in the Balkans has always been considered a kind of win-win magic wand, it turned out that this is no longer the case, and the time for such rhetoric has passed.
The population is now most concerned about socio-economic problems. But the nationalists have nothing to offer in this regard. And all attempts to play on the Great Bulgarian idea found no demand.
In the first elections of this year, the nationalists acted separately, and therefore lost; in the second, they united partially, but still this did not bring them success; in the last elections, again, some organizations acted in an alliance, some - separately, but one thing is clear that all this has already is not in demand.
It is also noteworthy that almost all the leaders of nationalist organizations were nominated as presidential candidates, and each of them received only a few thousand votes. Which means that they are not quoted personally either.
Russia, of course, is interested in reducing the degree of Russophobia, which is what distinguished GERB, in Bulgarian politics. Can we expect that under the power of the “Continue Reforms” party, Sofia’s relations with Moscow will be at least neutral, and attacks on Soviet monuments will stop?
Yes, these guys are really more pragmatic than GERB, so I think that a decrease in the degree of Russophobia can be expected, but they will not take any far-reaching steps in the direction of Russia, at least those that Orban is taking in Hungary. At most, they will stop some completely odious gestures of an anti-Russian nature. Not more.
We remember that the current incumbent President Rumen Radev, who has a great chance of being re-elected next Sunday in the second round, went to the polls for the first time with pro-Russian rhetoric. Now there is no trace left of her. At one time, various Russophile forces raised their heads in the country, but now they are practically inaudible. What, in your opinion, is the reason for the decline in the average person’s interest in the Russophile movement in Bulgaria?
I think this is the same reason why the nationalists failed. Russophile themes occupy modern Bulgarians much less than socio-economic problems. This is the poorest country in the European Union, even Albania is now ahead of it in terms of living standards and many other indicators. A significant part of Bulgarians are now forced to work abroad, young people also connect all their prospects with Europe, with work there, so this whole topic is now not very relevant, I think that the main reason is this.
What’s interesting is that the history of Russian-Bulgarian ties goes back several centuries. At the same time, in recent history we are not allies. While we were definitely not friends with Serbia, with which we were definitely not friends throughout the Soviet period when Yugoslavia existed, we managed to restore historical fraternal and allied relations. Vucic will soon come to Moscow. Why did Russia succeed with the Serbs, but not with the Bulgarians?
Well, because historically the pro-Serbian orientation of Russian foreign policy was stronger than the pro-Bulgarian one. And the Serbs and Bulgarians, as soon as they gained independence, immediately began to compete.
And even in 1885 they staged the first Serbo-Bulgarian war. The reason for the rivalry was Macedonia, since Serbia wanted to find access to the sea, and Bulgaria claimed these territories with no less, and perhaps with more right, since the Macedonians speak a dialect of the Bulgarian language, although it is now officially called the Macedonian language.
For this reason, Bulgaria in two world wars sided with Serbia’s opponents, respectively Germany and its allies. At the same time, being formally in a state of war with Moscow, in reality no one thought of sending Bulgarian troops against Russia.
In your opinion, can a leader like Vucic emerge in Bulgaria, under whom relations with our countries will again become fraternal?
Returning to the Revival party, the only national conservative party that managed to get into the People’s Assembly, its leaders are prone to Russophilia, they even talk about leaving the EU, NATO, pursuing an independent foreign policy, restoring relations with Russia and China. , Arab world.
But they received, I repeat, only a little over five percent of the votes, but this is clearly not enough to be a significant factor on the political scene. I doubt that they will negotiate with them about participating in the government.
And, let’s admit that their victory itself was due not so much to their national program, but rather to the tricky circumstance that they actively supported Covid-skepticism, which is very strong in Bulgaria. Which is what they played on.
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