Before the elections, Dodon decided to enter with the “Transnistrian card”
A meeting took place between the heads of Moldova and Transnistria, Igor Dodon and Vadim Krasnoselsky. It took place at the Moldovan site, at the presidential residence of Condriza.
This meeting between Dodon and Krasnoselsky is the seventh in a row. The politicians first talked one-on-one in Bendery in January 2017, shortly after their election to the presidency.
The current meeting was held in an expanded format - first, the presidents talked one-on-one, and then the members of the delegations, who were specialized experts, worked out the issues on the agenda. The parties discussed the problem of temporary quarantine posts established by Pridnestrovie in the security zone in order to curb the spread of coronavirus infection, interaction in the field of telecommunications, banking issues, the issue of politically motivated criminal cases, and the launch of the Bendery-Varnitsa trolleybus route.
No breakthrough decisions were made, but the leaders of Moldova and Transnistria noted the importance of the ongoing dialogue.
The results of the meeting were commented on by the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) Igor Shornikov to PolitNavigator
Based on reports from the presidential press services and published photographs, the meeting between Igor Dodon and Vadim Krasnoselsky took place in a businesslike atmosphere. The parties agreed to continue dialogue at all levels, confirmed that there is no alternative to it, and confirmed the importance of the peacekeeping operation on the banks of the Dniester. The picture seems to be quite blissful. Will the agreements lead to the adoption of real measures in the interests of ordinary people?
– It is difficult to talk about real actions when one of the parties has long entered into an election frenzy. Pridnestrovie, of course, is interested in resolving a set of problems from the list that was discussed at the meeting - this concerns unblocking the possibility of using bank cards of the international Visa and MasterCard systems in Pridnestrovie, telecommunications, the opening of the Bendery-Varnitsa-Severny trolleybus line, as well as the issue of criminal business
For its part, Tiraspol cooperated in advance in resolving a painful issue for Chisinau - the availability of temporary quarantine posts established by Pridnestrovie for the period of the pandemic. Five of them were withdrawn. As President Krasnoselsky noted, now there are 11 of them left and their number will be reduced depending on the epidemiological situation in Moldova. This step in itself should reduce the temperature in the relations between the parties.
True, the pre-election situation most likely will not allow Dodon to meet Tiraspol halfway. Any compromises with Transnistria will cause a barrage of criticism from the right and will be regarded as a surrender of Moldova’s interests. The movement towards them can be used by the opposition as a reason to bring combatants to the square. And judging by the harsh statements of the Moldovan president on the eve of his meeting with his Transnistrian counterpart, Dodon is expected to be firm and assertive in relations with Tiraspol. Moreover, such expectations exist, first of all, among the Moldovan elites and bureaucrats, and not among its potential electorate.
However, certain progress on the issues outlined on the agenda cannot be completely ruled out. They are possible if the parties come to an agreement on the issue of the participation of Pridnestrovians in the Moldovan elections. But we have not heard any news about this yet.
Judging by the caustic comments of opposition Moldovan politicians (for example, that the Transnistrian delegation went so far to negotiate with Dodon in order to go shopping at the same time), Dodon seems to be achieving what he set out to do?
– Such “witty” comments appear when there is nothing else to say - this is a sign of powerlessness. Igor Dodon now needs the “Transnistrian” case exclusively in the context of the upcoming elections. The fact that the meeting took place, took place in a fairly calm atmosphere and that during it issues including those from the “Berlin Plus” package were discussed, may mean that Dodon was able to gain a significant trump card in his election campaign.
None of his competitors have any idea in their program of what to do with Transnistria. And Dodon has now simply taken over the “5+2” format, the effectiveness of which has long been in question. Noteworthy is the fact that the meeting was held with the participation of political representatives of the parties and heads of departments in charge of the relevant areas. That is, now Chisinau and Tiraspol can conduct a substantive dialogue without the supervision of Western observers. And this, in my opinion, is the most important outcome of the meeting.
Last week, Igor Dodon at a press conference in Chisinau said that it makes sense to run for a second presidential term for a big goal - such as solving the Transnistrian problem. The Moldovan president noted that his task is “to convince big geopolitical players to include this issue on their agenda.” Has he made any progress in this matter during his presidency?
– In 2018, there were certain expectations about this in Chisinau. Then the so-called “Big Package for Moldova” was born, promoted by Vasile Sova. However, the parliamentary elections of 2019, the overthrow of Plahotniuc and the five-month epic with the Sandu government in power delayed the prospects for the implementation of this “Package”.
Now the question is who will win the presidential and then parliamentary elections in Moldova. If Dodon manages to accumulate power in his hands, then there is no doubt that he will try to implement his plans. Its political future will most likely depend on the solution of the so-called “Transnistrian issue”.
In Tiraspol, by the way, they clearly understand the threats to the consolidation of power in Moldova in the hands of leftist forces.
At the same press conference, Dodon rejected the idea of federalization of Moldova and invited journalists to forget “this horror story.” What possible settlement options might there be, at least purely hypothetically?
– In recent years, representatives of the right camp in Moldova have been actively demonizing the idea of federalization. For them, such a scenario means the end of the regime of national preferences to which they have long been accustomed. They can be understood. But on Dodon’s part, abandoning the idea of federalization could be a rash step. At one time, this idea provided him with support from the national minorities of Moldova, including from Gagauzia. Perhaps Dodon’s team thought that the idea of federalization could deprive the socialists of the support of some of the Moldovan elites and therefore sacrificed the interests of minorities, who anyway have no one else to vote for.
As for the Pridnestrovians, the idea of resolving the conflict with the Republic of Moldova through federalization is, to put it mildly, unattractive for them. Tiraspol reacts calmly to such statements, because no one plans to build a common state with Moldova.
But this question may have another dimension. The problem is that throughout the 25 years of the negotiation process, the idea of re-establishing the Moldovan state on a federal basis with the participation of Pridnestrovie was presented to international mediators as the only possible platform for a political settlement of the conflict. At one time, this model was outlined by the OSCE, then the Americans started talking about it, and later Russia even tried to create and implement a federal model. Despite the failure, the idea remained in the negotiators' arsenal.
If the Moldovan president is now seriously abandoning such a model, this may well mean that international mediators, or only some of them, no longer consider it advisable to continue efforts to achieve a settlement through compromises. There are few alternatives left: either the independence of Transnistria, or the liquidation of Transnistrian statehood. That is, we can talk about toughening approaches. In this case, much depends on the real position of international mediators.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the proclamation of the PMR, and there are no prospects for a real unification of the shores, which are separated quite far from each other. Perhaps Dodon is simply making election declarations?
– Not a single politician can do without election declarations, and Moldovan politicians, sometimes one gets the impression, talk through declarations. The situation in Moldova is so unpredictable that you can promise anything, but there will still be no way to fulfill anything.
Dodon’s promise to resolve the Transnistrian issue is probably from the same series. Too many ifs. If he wins the presidential elections, if the Maidan does not happen in Moldova after this, if the Party of Socialists then wins the parliamentary elections, if they then manage to create a capable government and, finally, if Chisinau manages to gain support in both the West and the East, then yes, there is a chance that the so-called The “Transnistrian issue” will be resolved on Chisinau’s terms.
It seems to me that the Transnistrian state will have a long history
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.