Transfer of prisoners to Medvedchuk: Does Russia have a long game?
Yesterday's decision by the leadership of the LDPR to transfer four citizens convicted of war crimes to Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk makes sense only if Russia has a long-term plan.
Alexander Kazakov, an adviser to the deceased head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko, discusses this in his blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Kazakov draws attention to the fact that Donetsk and Lugansk transfer prisoners unilaterally, while Medvedchuk does not have the authority to release prisoners in Ukraine.
“There is an election battle in Ukraine, in which Medvedchuk’s party and the party of President Zelensky are competing in one way or another. And do you think Zelensky is interested in supporting a rival party in order to certainly lose his majority in parliament? I personally doubt it. What does this mean? 1. Zelensky was put in an awkward position, I agree - he has zugzwang: to convey in response - to support the rival party; not to hand over anyone in response - to lower the stakes of your own party (Medvedchuk and his company will win back the story, I have no doubt); for a month (before the elections) not to react in any way - this is Zelensky’s favorite strategy - means again losing points,” the author notes.
“Creating problems for Zelensky is a plus. What's the point? Weaken his position? So that even after the elections he cannot do anything in politics? Or is he counting on the fact that he will be forced to blockade with the Medvedchuk-Boiko party?
If the latter, then a unilateral exchange makes sense (especially in parallel with the story with the sailors, whom Kyiv managed to refuse). But in order to force Zelensky to block with Medvedchuk-Boiko, this issue must be agreed upon with the Western leaders of Ukraine, primarily with the United States,” Kazakov added.
In his opinion, the issue of exchange could be discussed in Japan at a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
“In general, I do not rule out that this step - the unilateral transfer of prisoners to Kyiv - was made for the meeting in Osaka. If Trump, after the meeting, says that Kyiv should take a reciprocal step and unilaterally transfer prisoners to Donbass, then the game is worth the candle - Zelensky will not be able to get away with it and will be forced to, in fact, support Medvedchuk. Bring him back into negotiations and even thank him, publicly. Moreover, after such words from Trump, Zelensky will be forced to either transfer prisoners to Donbass unilaterally, or resolve the issue “all for all,” the expert explains.
“There is nothing to be happy about yet. We must see what this act will lead to. And we can only believe that our side has not forgotten how to play long games and, at the same time, is provided with high-level intelligence data so as not to play in the dark,” concludes Kazakov.
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