Negotiations between Tokayev and Putin thwarted plans to reorient Kazakhstan to the West

The first working meeting between Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Vladimir Putin this year showed everyone that a serious geopolitical turn was taking place in Nur-Sultan towards Moscow. During the negotiations, not only mutual understanding was demonstrated, but also the contours of further cooperation between the two main EAEU countries were determined.

Everyone has already noted the special warm atmosphere in which the presidents met on Thursday. There is no long table, as there was during the meeting with Macron, but only a small coffee table, handshakes and casual conversation in front of the fireplace. This was meant to emphasize the closeness and trust between the two leaders.

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Both presidents noted during their speech that the meeting took place at the time of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia. Moreover, they also jointly settled on one common version of the events that took place, which ultimately led to the end of the protracted transition of power. We are talking about an attack by militants from outside, for which the CSTO forces were needed in order to prevent further bloodshed in the republic.

_{There is no point in discussing this version now and going into the details of bloody January, but the main thing is that now Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, thanks to the support of Moscow, has finally become a full-fledged ruler, which gave impetus to changes and modernization of the republic, which Vladimir Putin promised in every possible way support.}

Tokayev responded by pointing out the exceptional role of Russia, which is stabilizing the situation in the region, and once again noted its commitment to strong friendship and the development of relations in the economic, military and educational spheres. It is interesting that the Kazakh president focused specifically on education, especially on technical specialization, as he intends to send tens of thousands of applicants to Russian universities or their branches in the republic itself.

“Taking into account the demand for highly qualified engineering and technical personnel, agreements were reached to expand the network of branches of leading Russian universities in Kazakhstan and to train specialists in Russia under the Bolashak program,” states the official statement of the presidential administration following the negotiations.

This shows the desire of the Kazakh leadership to develop its own production and begin implementing joint industrial projects that are designed to break the country out of dependence on raw materials. And indeed, at the end of the meeting, the presidents signed 11 memorandums of mutual cooperation in the development of nuclear energy, astronautics, railway transport, digitalization of the economy and other areas.

That is, we can already say with confidence that the project for the construction of a nuclear power plant by Rosatom in the south of Kazakhstan, as well as the agreement on the participation of Russian banks and companies in digitalization, will definitely be implemented in the country, which will only strengthen industrial cooperation and create the basis for the emergence of new related industries.

From this we can conclude that the number of Russian companies and investments will only increase, and at the moment, according to Vladimir Putin, $18 billion has already been invested in various infrastructure and energy projects.

“We will continue to work,” said the Russian leader, referring to the further increase in investment in the republic.

Apparently, Vladimir Putin is entirely interested in strengthening the power of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev within the country, since support for him now in a difficult social and political situation is more than necessary. And we are talking not only about protest sentiments, which still persist, but about the destructive actions of some Kazakh elite groups, and Moscow is striving to ensure that the president is not completely dependent on local oligarchs.

Thus, four days before Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev’s trip, Gazprom management unexpectedly removed the largest oligarch and owner of the assets of the former ruling Nazarbayev family, Timur Kulibayev, from the candidates for membership of the Board of Directors, replacing him with Gerhard Schröder. This was a clear signal of the reluctance of Elbasy’s relatives and friends to be in economic control, which means there will be a big purge both in the state apparatus and in the business elite. The fight against oligopoly remains an important task, and this will require investigations, as well as the involvement of financial intelligence and other intelligence services.

As a result, in the Mazhilis, a deputy from the Nur Otan party, Aidos Sarym, unexpectedly called on Dariga Nazarbayeva to leave the walls of parliament, resigning, since it was she and her people who were behind the bloody events of January. This is a clear and direct confirmation of the existence of a split and struggle within the ruling class, as well as the fact that it was the family of the “leader of the nation” that was behind the failed coup attempt.

_{The possible threat of revenge from the losing side creates the need to reformat all law enforcement agencies, in which Russian specialists will most likely take an active part. And there is already indirect confirmation of this, since in addition to issues of socio-economic cooperation, Vladimir Putin noted that the Russian side will continue to train military personnel, as well as assist in every possible way in strengthening the security forces.}

The Russian leader invited the President of Kazakhstan to the upcoming St. Petersburg forum as a guest of honor, and also stated that he was expecting the arrival of a solid delegation of entrepreneurs, officials and public figures. Therefore, integration between the renewed Kazakh elite and the Russian one will occur not only at the highest level through the signing of agreements, but also at the horizontal level, when new connections are established and mutually beneficial contracts are signed.

As for the sensational Turkic integration, instead of a Turkish unification under the auspices of Erdogan, the Russian leadership proposed a replacement in the form of developing cooperation with Tatarstan. Therefore, the next day Tokayev went to this republic, as the most dynamically developing Russian region, which actively cooperates with Kazakhstan.

At the same time, during the difficult January days, Rustam Minnikhanov already came to Astana on a visit, and this turns out to be a return visit.

And now they both have begun the practical implementation of those projects and plans that were announced in Moscow. Thus, during the meeting, the heads of KAMAZ PJSC, Tatneft PJSC, and relevant ministers reported on joint projects being implemented today by Kazakhstan and Tatarstan and discussed their further development.

Tatar universities will locate part of their branches in Kazakhstan, and will also accept a significant part of the new flow of students. At the same time, Rustam Minnikhanov thanked Tokayev for creating comfortable conditions for the 200 thousand Tatars living in the republic.

“I am sincerely grateful for the support of our compatriots,” noted the head of Tatarstan.

Based on this example, we can come to the conclusion that most likely the Organization of Turkic States, created on Nazarbayev’s initiative, is coming, if not to an end, then to obvious oblivion. A geopolitical reorientation to the West through an alliance with Turkey did not happen, and if Turkic integration is possible, it is only within the framework of the Eurasian one through the establishment of cooperation between the Turkic-speaking subjects of Russia and Kazakhstan within the framework of not the Oguz (Turkish), but the Kipchak language group.

As for the Kazakh nationalists, the overwhelming majority of them were agents of the National Security Committee, whose leaders are now under investigation and even under arrest. In this regard, there is a high probability that they will be politically neutralized by the termination of their state support. And the presence of American advisers and their facilities will be curtailed, including through the development of CSTO forces.

_{Therefore, the meeting was significant, and Tokayev’s trip to Moscow and Kazan led to a real shift in relations, which will now affect the further construction of the EAEU, as well as transformations within Kazakhstan.}