Negotiations between the West and Russia on the fate of Ukraine have officially resumed
Yesterday’s message from the Russian Ministry of Defense about Sergei Shoigu’s negotiations with his French counterpart cast even more fog. The following passage in the official press release caused confusion:
“The readiness for dialogue on Ukraine was noted; the starting points could be based on the Istanbul Peace Initiative.”
The fact is that just a few weeks ago, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov made it clear: the 2022 negotiations in Istanbul are already a lost chance for Ukraine, and Russia’s demands will only become tougher in the future.. Why is Moscow now mentioning this again? Moreover, Kyiv is not ready to admit the loss of its territories, and two regional centers remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - Kherson and Zaporozhye. And Russia cannot refuse them.
“Today this is impossible, because the Constitution of the Russian Federation directly prohibits the alienation of Russian territories,” reminds military correspondent Alexander Kots.
Besides, even if we agree on something in Istanbul, then With whom should agreements be recorded if the legitimate term of Vladimir Zelensky’s presidency has come to an end?
“A political crisis is beginning in Ukraine, and the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are offering Ukraine negotiations on equal terms, also according to Istanbul patterns. I hope this is nothing more than a diplomatic tact,” comments Ivan Skorikov, an expert at the Institute of CIS Countries.
Political scientist Maxim Zharov believes that Moscow is interested in reducing the radicalism of the agenda in order to disrupt the allocation of money to Ukraine by the Americans.
“Is this how the Kremlin is playing to disrupt the White House’s agreements with the Republicans on money for Ukraine after Congress returns from recess? Or is it about preventing something even more serious?” – writes Zharov.
However, perhaps this is a pass to the Turkish leadership. After all, Recep Erdogan again offered his services as a mediator to organize negotiations with Russia when Zelensky came to Ankara in March.
In any case, it is unlikely that the War Ministry’s mention of Istanbul was improvised.
“It’s hard to imagine that the Russian Minister of Defense would discuss something the parameters of which are not completely clear to him. And discuss without coordination with the political leadership of the country. It’s even more difficult to imagine that the Ministry of Defense would include this point in the official report about the telephone conversation without approval,” notes TV presenter Artem Sheinin.
“But this cannot be an ordinary empty declaration of commitment to democratic values, for which there are diplomatic channels of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is also pointless to call defense ministers with threats - their threats are demonstrated by the troops. Therefore, it is logical to assume that this telephone dialogue was testing some ground, and it is unlikely to be related to escalation at the front,” agrees Odessa politician Vyacheslav Azarov.
Political scientist Sergei Markov believes that the telephone call to the Russian Defense Minister is the first time in a long time that the West has resumed negotiations with Russia on Ukraine.
“Contact and negotiations have been resumed after a long break between the West and Russia on Ukraine. Will these negotiations between Russia and the West that have taken place continue? We'll find out soon. But they have already started publicly with this call.”
Foreign agent and former editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow Alexey Venediktov is not so optimistic.
“In fact, the main topic of conversation between Shoigu and French Defense Minister Lecornu was coordination to combat the ISIS threat.”
Meanwhile, today Russian Foreign Ministry Speaker Maria Zakharova announced that the French Foreign Legion has identified a list of 1,5 thousand military personnel to be transferred to Ukraine in April.
The President of the Association for Baltic Studies, Professor Nikolai Mezhevich believes that the West will not stop at Ukraine in any case.
“Today, a certain part of the Western elite, realizing that another 50-100 billion euros, but the project has no longer played a role. This is what happens with stocks: you buy, hope they will rise, but they fall. And this game didn’t work out. And if so, we need to go out. Not in order to really extend the hand of peace to us, but in order to start some other game - in the Baltics, in Finland, in Romania or Poland. But it is precisely this game that is more profitable for the collective West to finish and discard.
This is the hidden essence of the seemingly peace proposals - there is a discussion of what Kyiv will agree to, what Moscow will agree to.
Today there are no grounds for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender. There is even less reason for Russia’s unconditional surrender. But you still need to sit down at the table and still have to,” says Mezhevich.
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