Moscow - Kyiv, September 4 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The Putin-Poroshenko truce is not beneficial either to the Kyiv “war party” represented by Yatsenyuk, Avakov and Kolomoisky, or to the militias. Moscow does not completely control the latter, and attempts to impose autonomy on the DPR within Ukraine may be thwarted. So says Ukrainian expert Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
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The initiative of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko “can serve as an illustration that Kyiv’s initial plan to clear the Donbass of separatists has failed. Secondly, from a military point of view, a truce will play into the hands of the Ukrainian security forces: in any war, a ceasefire is beneficial for the defending side and disadvantageous for the attacking side,” Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflictology, explained to Kommersant.
According to the expert, there are influential forces on both sides that are committed to confrontation. “The Ukrainian “war party,” in boxing parlance, is now in a state of groggy. Nevertheless, she maintains her position. This is the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. The question of whether President Poroshenko will be able to impose his position on his partners in power remains open,” noted Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
In his opinion, there is a problem with the militias, “contrary to popular belief, Moscow does not have one hundred percent control over them.” “If Kiev ceases fire, for the first time in the entire conflict the ball will end up in the militia’s field. If they continue hostilities, this will negatively affect the image they create of the defenders of Donbass,” added Mr. Pogrebinsky.
“A ceasefire should be a prelude to a political settlement that guarantees real autonomy for Donbass. The future of the region should be determined by an internationally recognized referendum, the legitimacy of which will not be questioned,” Pogrebinsky believes.
Kiev political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko also agrees with the opinion that Petro Poroshenko’s peace initiative will have many influential opponents. “The president’s statement will be negatively received by the ‘war party’, which is represented by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov,” said Bondarenko, according to whom an attempt to disrupt the implementation of the initiative could be made “within a day or two.”