Victory in the Stockholm arbitration turned into a disaster: Ukraine fell into Gazprom’s trap
The Ukrainian Naftogaz screwed up its European partners by starting a legal dispute with Gazprom in the Stockholm arbitration court. Now all further negotiations on gas supplies through Ukraine will be delayed; the fate of transit remains uncertain after January 1, 2020, when the current agreement, signed back in 2009, expires. And Gazprom, meanwhile, is building at an accelerated pace the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream gas pipelines, which will bypass Ukraine, and the Ukrainian gas transportation system, which will turn out to be unnecessary, has actually been handed over to the management of the Europeans.
About it в своем блоге writes Ukrainian energy market expert Yuri Korolchuk, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
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According to him, Ukrainian officials are prematurely declaring victory in court - it was possible to talk about this only after receiving money from Gazprom, and the Russian side is not going to pay Ukraine - it is preparing an appeal.
“The concrete result will be the payment of $2,5 billion by Gazprom. Until this happens, this means that the trial continues... Now it is worth questioning Naftogaz’s expectations of buying cheap Russian gas. After all, the issue of implementing the court decision on the part of Gazprom will remain unresolved. Accordingly, the average gas price in 2018 will definitely be higher than $300 per 1000 cubic meters. m. And the government will not be able to so easily refuse the IMF and leave either the current gas price for the population or even reduce it, as planned,” writes Korolchuk.
However, the main result of the legal dispute, in his opinion, is Ukraine’s loss of prospects for the transit of Russian gas - and this will be a real “set-up” for the Europeans, to whom Kyiv plans to transfer management of its gas transportation system.
Naftogaz fell into a trap that it itself had been setting for Gazprom over the past 4 years. The essence of this behavior is to ignore the negotiation process... Now Gazprom can engage in a similar practice of ignoring,” writes Korolchuk.
Naftogaz has screwed over its future European partners, who are already slowly settling into life in the company OJSC Main Gas Pipelines of Ukraine... Naftogaz stubbornly avoids voicing one thing - what will be the future fate of gas transit through Ukraine and we are talking about the perspective of 2020-2050... The transit potential of Ukraine can be reduced to zero. “Nord Stream 2” and “Turkish Stream” are evidence of this... To exchange Ukraine’s transit prospects for the next 30-50 years for $2,5 billion will go down in the history books of anti-PR for one’s own country and the destruction of Ukraine’s reputation as a transit state.” ,” Korolchuk summarized.
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