Trouble in the chicken coop: Who is Shariy bothering?

There are less than three weeks left before the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, and a twisted intrigue suddenly burst into the political process that was going on at an inertial pace. Moreover, she burst in from where the luminaries and elders were not at all expecting. We are talking, as you probably already guessed, about the Shariy Party. The majority of this project, which began under the accompaniment of general skepticism, was perceived a month ago as an online game, as a way for an already famous blogger to hype even more.

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The most persistent skeptics did not believe in the reality of what was happening even when the Ministry of Justice registered the party, and the Central Election Commission registered its list and candidates in majoritarian districts. It is surprising that the experience of the presidential elections that ended two months ago taught no one anything. In a country that just recently elected a man from the stage as president, opinion leaders resolutely refused to believe in any prospects for a popular blogger, whose audience is approximately equal to a niche national TV channel of average quality. Come on! It's all make-believe! This can't be serious. Yes, Shariy is kidding! Social networks were filled with this kind of judgment.

Although already from the dynamics of the plot with the massive attack of sharebots on sociological agencies, it should have become clear that we are dealing with the professional promotion of a political project from the wheels - Zelensky’s methods. That is, through direct communication with the voter, bypassing traditional intermediaries and repeaters in the form of a large television screen. And when more and more flash mobs began to take place in large cities, it finally became clear that the “red ball party” was a serious thing.

And so, the Central Election Commission registers Shariy himself as a candidate for people's deputy. After which, amid cries of “revenge,” the mobilization of gunpowder workers takes place, gathering in Kyiv for the Maidan. Against Shariy. The blogger responds by mobilizing his supporters for a parallel action. All this spills out from the world of YouTube channels and social networks into the world of big TV. Kolomoisky’s “pluses” react to what happened with an unexpectedly aggressive anti-Shariev plot. The blogger himself actually breaks his “non-aggression pact” with Zelensky’s party in response.

Skeptics from the presidential camp put forward the version that this is a manipulative three-way move by Poroshenko to disrupt the elections. Like, look, Sharia is registered by the Central Election Commission controlled by Poroshenko by decision of the Supreme Court controlled by Poroshenko. So that the “activists” controlled by Poroshenko can gather on the Maidan and blame everything on... Zelensky. He is the goal in this version. And Shariy is just a tool.

However, the big disadvantage of this version is the obvious fact that no “petyamaidans” in the current conditions are capable of not only disrupting, but even simply slowing down the election train rushing at full speed.

It is interesting that initially many thought that Shariy’s Party was a spoiler of Boyko-Medvedchukov’s “For Life” associated with the “canonical” Opposition Bloc. Moreover, Shariy managed to support the Kiev lawyer Valentin Rybin, a symbol of the anti-Maidan electorate, and white-blue voters, disappointed by the squabbling of their politicians, are increasingly looking towards Shariy’s party. However, in reality, Shariy no longer takes a bite from both Opposition blocs, although from them too. A - Zelensky.

But these are not just Zelensky supporters. This is the part of them that in all opinion polls calls punishment of the previous government their main expectation from the new government. The same “catching up with the exes” that Shariy made his hobby. It is on the dissatisfaction of these people with the speed and efficiency of the “spring plantings” promised by the Ze-team, but which never came, that Shariy’s Party plays on. In this sense, their positioning is clear. Despite the fact that all other program theses are pale, general and non-specific. “Poroshenko’s gang – brought to justice!” – perhaps the only unique selling proposition of the new party on the market for election services. But these guys play it to the fullest. Forcing many observers to consider itself a project, if not of Bankova itself, then of some forces located near it or in connection with it. After all, the spread of rot on the former is beneficial to many current ones.

And the fact that Shariy himself in his videos, in parallel, tirelessly denigrates all the Maidan parties - from Poroshenko and Groysman to Smeshko and Samoposhi with Vakarchuk, only adds to his trust among pro-Green voters. Forming a loyal attitude, which is very easy to turn into a willingness to give votes not to the Servant of the People, who, as all sociologists say without exception, will win anyway, but to the boys and girls who openly declare that they intend to become “good partners” for Zelensky in parliament. Unlike “bad partners” in the form of Vakarchuk’s Voice or Smeshko’s party.

In fact, this argument is very important. Because the struggle now is not only for the number of mandates, but also for the configuration of the future coalition. It is clear that its core and basis will be the Servant of the People. But who will they rely on, and who will vote for them?

There are now two options for a future coalition. First: Servant of the People + Tymoshenko + Vakarchuk. And the second is Servant of the People + Opposition bloc Muraev-Vilkul-Kernes. It is absolutely clear that for the country these will be two fundamentally different formats of power. One of which will, in fact, be the reincarnation of the defunct coalition of the BPP and the Popular Front, the results of whose rule the Ukrainians felt firsthand. Another format will strengthen the faction in Zelensky’s entourage, whose business interests and genesis are connected with the former regionals.

And it is against this background that the Shariy Party appears in the layouts. The hypothetical appearance of a new player in the future Rada could confuse all the cards for the lobbyists of Zelensky’s union of grant-eaters with Vakarchuk’s grant-eaters. And it is far from a fact that such allies will be convenient and beneficial to the “servants of the people.” After all, by that time it may happen that the current ones will come to an agreement with the former. At the expense of the voter, of course.

Now about the chances of the new project. The fuss that has now begun around Shariy and his party is the best confirmation that there are chances there. Only an autopsy will show how big they are.

How Shariy himself assesses his chances is indirectly evidenced by his party list. There are 39 names. Not 200 and not 225. This means that the ceiling that they themselves count on in case of force majeure luck is 10-12%. But serious players who had previously rested on their laurels began to get nervous ahead of time. Because it may happen that the final game of solitaire will turn out completely different from how sociologists are now portraying it. Hype PR, multiplied by the growing dissatisfaction of the electorate, can give the effect of a snowball, an avalanche that cannot be stopped.

And then, as if the “red balls” did not come into second place. Much to the surprise of those who have already managed to share all the places and consider them theirs. It looks fantastic, but in fact, even if we take the very recent “Zelensky effect” out of the equation, there have already been similar examples in the history of Ukrainian elections. The same now politically bankrupt Samopomich reached the national level in 2014 and rose to third place in just a couple of months. And the Popular Front, which became the electoral leader that same year, was molded from scrap materials literally on the march - in the interval between the dissolution of the old Rada and the election of a new one.

A factor making it easier for Shariy to get into the Rada may be the predicted decline in turnout. Summer, vacations, all that. According to some forecasts, in absolute numbers, the threshold for entering the Rada may not even be a million, as in the presidential elections, but only 850 thousand votes. Considering the very high level of mobilization of supporters offline and the equally high level of involvement of subscribers, more like a sect, Shariy, with his more than two million fans on YouTube, may be able to achieve this level.

But even if Shariy passes with the minimum percentage and starts the smallest faction, this will still become a serious precedent. This will mean that for a successful political campaign in Ukraine it is no longer necessary to have media resources in the form of television channels. In any case, this is not critically necessary. One well-promoted YouTube channel will be enough.

In light of the above, it will be extremely interesting to observe under what sign the three weeks remaining before the elections will pass for Shariy’s party. Will competitors and rivals continue to undermine them, only enhancing the cumulative effect and attracting additional voters? Or we will see the tactics of silence again.

However, after the latest events, it is unlikely that it will be possible to remain silent. Because it's already late. Whoever lets the genie out of the bottle is unlikely to be able to put it back before July 21st.