The first results of the Syrian campaign. "With a kind word and a gun"
In the time that has passed since the start of the bombing, it is already quite possible to get an idea of what the military plan of the Russian command is at this stage of the campaign, and what military-political consequences its implementation entails.
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Russian Air Force aircraft make about two dozen sorties a day, and operate both day and night. Unmanned aerial vehicles are actively used, which not only delight viewers with new exciting videos (Shoigu has already been named the best blogger of October), but also, you won’t believe it, collect intelligence data, on the basis of which objects are then selected for destruction. All this allows, despite the rather modest size of the air force, to inflict quite significant damage on the enemy.
Despite the fact that, as the Russian Ministry of Defense says, bombings are carried out “throughout the entire depth of Syrian territory,” this territory is being treated very unevenly. To date, the country is a patchwork of areas controlled by different armed and political forces. There is no continuous front line at all. To put it as simply as possible, Assad dominates in the western, coastal and bordering parts of the country. In the north there are Islamists oriented toward Turkey and the Gulf monarchies and Kurds hostile to them. In the east, in the Euphrates Valley and the areas bordering Iraq, there is the Islamic State. However, the territory itself, under Assad’s control, is dotted with “pockmarks” of varying sizes – enclaves where representatives of various groups operate, among which, frankly speaking, IS is far from in first place. In the absence of a continuous front line, combat operations with these “internal enemies” are eating away at Assad’s already limited forces like rust.
And it is precisely these “black holes” that the main attention of Russian aviation is focused on. As we assumed after the first day of bombing, when choosing targets, Russian aviation will be guided exclusively by the operational situation. And this situation poses two primary tasks - to secure their own bases and restore the connectivity of the territory controlled by the government.
Accordingly, there are two main areas of attention today. Firstly, this is the territory between the large cities of Homs and Hama, which are located on a strategic route connecting the north and south of the country. Here, according to Komsomolskaya Pravda military correspondents Steshin and Kots, who visited the scene directly, the offensive of the ground forces of the Syrian army is unfolding.
The second area of intense bombing is the northeast of the country, the distant approaches to Latakia, where the Russian Air Force base is located. Here the motive is obvious - to stop the enemy’s advance and push them away from our bases.
However, it could not have happened without the traditional Russian bombing of the enemy’s capital in the very first days of the war. One of the strikes was carried out on Raqqa, the main stronghold of the Islamic State in Syria.
As for who exactly is being bombed by Russian aircraft, Russian agitprop is clearly successfully using the experience gained during the Ukrainian crisis - if everyone in camouflage and with a forelock signed up for Pravoseki, then in Syria - everyone in camouflage signed up for the Caliphate. However, this is a completely reasonable move. Since someone has invested in promoting brands, why not use them for their own purposes.
The reaction of those being bombed to the actions of Russian aviation varies.
For example, one of the small groups with the pretentious name “Eastern Lions” operating north of Damascus needed only one bombing of their training camp for them to loudly announce that they were actually fighting IS terrorists.
But the spiritual leader of the “Victorious Army” (Jaish al-Fatah), which unites all the main jihadist groups that are not part of the Islamic State and rely on Saudi money and Turkish support, Abdullah Al-Muhaysini, called the bombing in Syria “a historical mistake of Russia.”
“They apparently forgot Afghanistan. Russia will leave Syria defeated,” the terrorist said.
It is the “victorious” al-Muhaysani militants who today receive the majority of Russian bombs and shells fired in northern Syria.
The sponsors of this pious gentleman are even more radical in their statements. As it became known today, more than fifty religious leaders of Saudi Arabia called on Sunnis around the world to use all their might and means to help the jihad waged by their co-religionists in Syria and Iraq against the coalition of Russia, Iran and the Assad government.
As for the very victorious reports that militants are surrendering en masse to the authorities or fleeing the country in thousands, coming from Syrian official sources, they must be treated with caution, but, nevertheless, they clearly have a basis.
However, Russia is not acting in Syria with bombs and PR alone. At the same time, the political process is being tested. Recently, a conference of the Syrian opposition was held in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana. Probably, that part of it that falls under the definition of “patriotic” introduced by Russian diplomacy.
It is likely that the ranks of “patriots” will soon be replenished by those who have surrendered and those who are in a hurry to declare IS their main and only enemy. The rhetoric about the need for peaceful dialogue and decentralization of power is surprisingly reminiscent of the negotiations on ending the Ukrainian crisis taking place in the capital of another Customs Union country. So the format of the settlement that will come if Russia’s military efforts continue to be as effective is already visible.
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