Plahotniuc lost his last point of support. How will this affect Moldovan politics?
The fate of the former shadow ruler of Moldova, Vlad Plahotniuc, who fled the country last year, is close to a denouement. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his Twitter page announced the introduction of personal sanctions against Plahotniuc and members of his family.
Plahotniuc, his wife and two children are deprived of an American visa and can be deported from the country at any time if their stay in the United States is confirmed.
This news was greeted with joy by the overwhelming majority of Moldovan society. Most rejoiced were representatives of the radical pro-Western opposition from the Action and Solidarity party led by Maia Sandu and the TV channels supporting her project.
At the same time, it should be recognized that the United States does not have the lead in the prosecution of Plahotniuc. Russia was the first to impose sanctions against him. The Basmanny Court of Moscow arrested the scandalous oligarch in absentia and put him on the wanted list back in November 2017, on charges of preparing a murder.
Later, in 2019, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs opened criminal cases against Plahotniuc on two more charges – “organizing a criminal community” and “organizing a drug cartel.” At the same time, Interpol stubbornly blocked any attempts to put Plahotniuc on the international wanted list through this organization.
Over the course of these two years, Plahotniuc used the fact of his persecution by Russia to actively fan anti-Russian propaganda in Moldova and present himself in the West, primarily in the United States, as a person opposing Russian influence in his country. Plahotniuc managed to become especially close friends on the Russophobic path with the former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.
However, the American administration began to realize that continuing to support Plahotniuc would only harm its image. During the June 2019 crisis, the visit of US Ambassador Derek Hogan to Plahotniuc’s office became the decisive argument for Plahotniuc and his inner circle to leave Moldova.
Today, the West, led by the United States, has a new undisputed favorite in the Moldovan political arena - this is ex-Prime Minister Maia Sandu. It is her that the West is actively preparing as a candidate to replace Igor Dodon in the presidential elections that will take place this fall. In this situation, Plahotniuc and his team from the Democratic Party are no longer needed. They are removed to the side so that they do not get underfoot.
How will personal sanctions against Plahotniuc by the United States affect Moldovan politics in the near future?
Firstly, this means that the fugitive oligarch is forever cut off from returning to Moldovan politics. The expulsion of Plahotniuc from the United States means the loss of his last point of support and the collapse of the hope that he will ever be able to return to the political Olympus of Moldova in the mantle of a winner.
Secondly, this is a deadly signal for the Democratic Party, which still controls a significant part of the parliamentary seats in Moldova and the majority of the administrations of the country’s settlements.
The entire project of the Democratic Party was associated exclusively with Plahotniuc, his power, influence, financing, and organizational talent. Most likely, the Democratic Party of Moldova will sink into oblivion or join one of the existing projects: either the socialists or the pro-Western camp led by Maia Sandu.
And finally, US sanctions against Plahotniuc are a clear signal to the current President Igor Dodon: the games are over, it will not be possible to continue to wobble and rush about. Any attempts to somehow come to an agreement with Washington, to appease the “city on a hill” are useless. In fact, Dodon finally burned his bridges with the West after he refused to compromise with Maia Sandu on the appointment of the prosecutor general, fearing that this institution would become an instrument of political reprisal and pressure in her hands.
Today, Dodon has only one way to retain the presidency: to win with such a convincing result that challenging the election results will become useless.
However, if the current government manages to achieve the extradition of Vlad Plahotniuc in handcuffs, this will play into the hands of Igor Dodon and raise his rating within the country.
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