Merkel's plan. How Turkey and Ukraine can join the EU
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will have a difficult end to the week. On Thursday there is a debate in the Bundestag, then the EU Conference and, finally, a state visit to Turkey. And all this for the sake of one goal - to help long-suffering refugees.
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It seems that, without waiting for the Nobel Committee to evaluate her righteous labors, this daughter of a Protestant pastor decided to make solving the problem of disadvantaged foreigners her life's work. At least in political life. Speaking recently at the CDU party conference in the small Saxon town of Schkeuditz, she said: “This is the main task that I, as chancellor, have faced in my life.” And she added, “I know this is a difficult situation, but I won’t give up.” In response, one of the delegates unfurled a banner: “Stop the refugee chaos! Protect German culture and values. Overthrow Merkel! The chancellor's ratings are falling, but she says in interviews that she has never allowed poll results to influence her policies.
But it’s not just about individual party “dissidents.” The head of the Bavarian CSU, a party whose alliance with the SPD in its fundamental strength could compete with the “bloc of communists and non-party people” in the USSR, spoke out against Merkel’s policies. Its leader Horst Seehofer, speaking in Munich, said: “without restrictions on migration, Germany and the whole of Europe will face a spectacular collapse.” In his opinion, Merkel simply lost control of the situation, has no concrete plan to combat the crisis and capitulated to the migration wave. And Seehofer can be understood. It was Bavaria that received the main flow of refugees, who arrive at a rate of 1000 people per day. The head of the Bavarian government threatened that if Berlin does not stop the flow of immigrants and does not set a limit on their reception, he will file a lawsuit in the German Constitutional Court.
The main thesis that Merkel voices both in Germany and in Europe is that in the XNUMXst century, in the era of the Internet, it is impossible to isolate yourself from the outside world and its problems. It seems that the walls, behind which the Hungarians have already begun to hide and which many in the EU seem to be a way out of the situation, simply cause physical rejection in this former resident of East Germany. Apparently associations with the Iron Curtain and its material embodiment – the Berlin Wall – are still very much alive. Therefore, Merkel's policy is an open door policy.
However, as the famous son of a Turkish citizen said: “but we will not extend this helping hand to everyone.” The measures that the Bundestag overwhelmingly adopted are based on two principles: to weed out all outsiders and to integrate as much as possible those who are in need. Countries such as Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro have been classified as “safe”, meaning that the large number of migrants from there who arrived in the Schengen zone this summer will be denied refugee status. In the future, Turkey may also be included in the “safe” list, which means that Europe will have to turn a blind eye to the Kurdish issue. Also, refugees will no longer receive payments in cash; all the necessary things will be provided to them in ready-made form by the state. At the same time, courses in German language and culture, which were previously only taken by those who have already received refugee status, will now be required to accept everyone who has just applied for asylum.
Merkel wants to impose approximately this set of measures on the European Union. “Open doors” in German does not mean “passage yard.” Merkel wants to create a new full-fledged supranational border force, create a special refugee agency with a large staff and broad powers, wants to revise the system of registration and redistribution of refugees between EU countries, wants to get the Greeks and Turks to jointly patrol their territorial waters, wants to build in southern Italy and Greece have full-fledged filtration camps. If all this is implemented, then we will see a completely different Union, in which there will be even less room for national sovereignty and in which Germany will have not only economic and political, but also moral leadership.
However, Merkel understands that she cannot cope with the refugee crisis alone, without a serious ally. But in Europe itself it has no such allies. She constantly has to be reminded of the solidarity and basic principles of the EU, for which, in her words, the current crisis has become a “historic test”. And constantly criticize the “renegades”, whether in Eastern Europe or the British Isles, who do not share its enthusiasm for migrants.
And here the chancellor finally drew attention to the man who had recently been trying to attract the attention of Europe. Still October 1st, i.e. at a time when the scale and nature of Russian bombing in Syria were completely unclear, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey at the opening of the parliamentary session, said with unprecedented pathos: “Turkey has been giving shelter to more than 4 million people for 2 years now.” Syrian and Iraqi brothers, thereby demonstrating not only a neighborly mission, but also saving the dignity of humanity. Our people, showing great selflessness, taught the world community a lesson in humanity.”
But after it became clear that Russian bombs and strikes by Syrian troops advancing on the ground were primarily targeting militants directly associated with Turkey itself, Erdogan accused Russia of the fact that its actions only increase the flow of refugees, which his country alone can cope with no longer capable. Erdogan directly appealed to the EU for help.
And he was heard. The German Chancellor, this good angel for all the disadvantaged, learned the Turkish “lesson of humanity.” “There is no doubt that Turkey plays a key role in this situation,” Merkel said, “we cannot regulate and stop the movement of refugees without working together with Turkey.” According to rumors, Berlin and Brussels, which supports it in all refugee-related endeavors, are ready to allocate up to 3 billion euros to Ankara, open a visa-free regime for Turkish citizens and even resume long-frozen negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the EU.
Moreover, there are all the conditions for a sharp rapprochement between Turkey and Germany. Firstly, this is an extensive historical foundation, and secondly, this is the world's largest Turkish diaspora living in Germany. And thirdly, these are the circumstances of the moment itself. Erdogan has always been a Eurosceptic in the chair of the head of the Turkish Republic, but the situation simply leaves him no choice. Russia's actions are crushing all its efforts to eliminate Assad. US relations with the Kurds are a constant source of tension. The other day, the ambassadors of the United States and Russia were called to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs for clarification, and both were explained that Ankara considers the Syrian Kurds not a party to the conflict with which it is necessary to conduct a dialogue, and certainly not an ally in the fight against the Islamic State, but terrorists who do not shake hands. So, left alone, Merkel and Erdogan are simply doomed to rapprochement.
The well-known formula states that Ukraine will be admitted to the EU immediately after Turkey. True, its second half sounds like this: “But Turkey will never be accepted into the EU.” It is possible that now this phrase should end not with a period, but with a question mark. At least, if the experience of accommodating migrants in exchange for integration preferences is successfully tested using the example of Turkey, then it can be successfully implemented in other EU neighbors. But for a billion euros a year, a visa-free regime and prospects for membership, any Ukrainian politician will sell even his own mother to anyone.
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