“The victory of Novorossiya lies in casuistry”

There will be no concessions to official Kyiv from Russia or Donbass following the Normandy Four meeting in Paris. On the contrary, Petro Poroshenko’s situation is catastrophic. Having become convinced that the Ukrainian president is lying, Germany and France are now putting pressure on him simultaneously. And Russia will soon begin issuing passports to residents of Donbass. About this in an interview with a columnist “PolitNavigator” to Valentin Filippov said a Russian political scientist close to the Kremlin Oleg Bondarenko.

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Valentin Filippov: Hello, Oleg!

Oleg Bondarenko: Hello!   

Valentin Filippov:  However, they decided to postpone the elections in the DPR and LPR. They will take place according to Ukrainian legislation, but, apparently, according to the one that will be agreed upon in contact groups. What is the main difference between the version that the Republics want to see? LPR and DPR.  

Oleg Bondarenko:  Well, firstly, the law that currently exists on local elections is precisely the law of the LPR and DPR. Which was proposed back in May, but was conveniently ignored by Kiev. According to this law, local elections can be held on the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics without the participation of political parties in principle. Not to mention those parties, activists, and media that advocated the so-called anti-terrorist operation.

Thus, only representatives of public organizations can take part in them.

But we should start with something else. Because the postponement of the date of local elections is secondary to the postponement of the Minsk Agreements, which is extremely important for both Moscow and the People’s Republics.

Why? Let me explain, when the Minsk Agreements were concluded, they insisted that the validity period be limited to one year. Until the end of 2015. The Americans adhered to the same position. Which every time said that Moscow should (and the People's Republics should) take into account the deadline of the Minsk Agreements.

Now that Europe is convinced that Poroshenko is sabotaging the Minsk Agreements, all summer we have been watching Poroshenko’s skillful imitation of constitutional reform. Everyone realized that it was no longer possible to simply implement these Minsk Agreements, it was simply physically impossible. Moreover, Poroshenko continues to sabotage them for now.

The idea arose back on September 22 in the Lugansk People's Republic to postpone the date of local elections, most of the local elections to February 21. Thus, extending the Minsk Agreements.

On October 2, French President Francois Hollande agreed with this position, and it became the position of the consolidated, I would say, Normandy Three. Because now, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, it is not Russia that finds itself alone and isolated, but Ukraine. For the first time we saw the consolidated position of Moscow, Berlin and Paris, and Poroshenko, who was extremely dissatisfied, as was noticeable in the photographs...

Valentin Filippov:  He might just have had a hangover.

Oleg Bondarenko: He was clearly upset about what was happening there.    

Valentin Filippov:  No, he thought it would start with a buffet :)

Oleg Bondarenko:  He was clearly upset by this 🙂 Because, it’s one thing to try to pose as a person who opposes the Russian president, and another thing to resist the pressure of the German chancellor.  

Valentin Filippov:  If the Republics decided to postpone the elections, it means that the Ukrainian side somehow made it clear that, after all, there will be direct dialogue and agreement on these laws on local self-government...   

Oleg Bondarenko:  I think it's the other way around. That the Ukrainian side was presented with a fact. Berlin, first of all. Paris and Moscow. Normandy's big three. She was presented with a fact. Look, we're giving you one more chance. Remember, like Blok:

“The last time for a friendly brotherly feast,

The barbarian lyre calls out...”

Here is the last opportunity, a second chance for Kyiv to implement the Minsk Agreements. And if this time Kyiv ignores them and does not fulfill them, then, firstly, it will become clear who is responsible for them, who is responsible for the failure of the Minsk Agreements. It will no longer be possible to shift this so easily to Moscow, Donetsk... And, secondly, certain sanctions and influences are already clear. And now these influences will not be directed against Moscow. They will be directed against Kyiv. And they will be directed in a consolidated manner by Russia and Europe.

If we take the most extreme option, that Poroshenko continues to sabotage the Minsk Agreements, then, obviously, the Republics will not wait long either. And they will be able to calmly, in accordance with their law, hold local elections. But the responsibility for the unilateral conduct of local elections then falls on Poroshenko.    

Valentin Filippov: And such a question about the wonderful Ukrainian side. When do you think the Ukrainian side will be able to implement the Minsk Agreements, or even just make contact? Does the government have to change?

Should this be a different Rada, a different President, a different Cabinet of Ministers?

Oleg Bondarenko:  Objectively, the Rada really needs to change. Because I can hardly imagine how Poroshenko gets three hundred votes for the special status of Donbass in the Constitution of Ukraine. In this Verkhovna Rada.    

Valentin Filippov:   What if three hundred million?

Oleg Bondarenko: She will most likely fly into the air. Faster. From some next grenades than this will happen. But, listen. Poroshenko made a commitment in Minsk. 12th of February. On October 2 in Paris, these commitments were confirmed to the Normandy Troika. And these are his problems, how he will solve these issues. Who will he re-elect there? Will he do it? This, by and large, no longer concerns Moscow, Berlin, or Paris. Let him do what he wants. But he committed to implement the Minsk Agreements.

If they are not fulfilled, due to his fault, then responsibility for this will fall on Poroshenko. And Europe will already know about this. First of all.

So here, you know, you can, of course, advise him on some things, but I’m not sure about the appropriateness of this advice, about their correctness, or something…. What should he do in order for these Agreements to actually be implemented?      

Valentin Filippov:  But sometimes, in order to understand our opponent, we need to try to put ourselves in his place. Having listened the day after the negotiations in the Normandy format, listening to Poroshenko speaking in front of girls, journalists, three, I understood that he had some kind of Normandy agreements of his own. Our Minsk Agreements.

They ignore the Minsk Agreements; in general, it seems like they haven’t read them, but that’s not the point.

I understand that he has no other choice.   

Oleg Bondarenko:  Many people from Poroshenko’s circle have only recently read the Minsk Agreements. And many still haven’t read it.  

Valentin Filippov:  Yes. So what am I saying? Poroshenko and his team are not the people who change the electoral field or the Verkhovna Rada to suit the configuration they need. These are the people who, as a rule, adjust and parasitize on what is.

And parasitizing on what is, I understand that without war, Ukraine, in the configuration in which it exists, it simply... It definitely needs a “war with Russia.” But not like in Syria, with Russia flying and bombing, but here is “war.” War is always needed, without war they will be thrown off and devoured. Moreover, there is also a default.

Don't you think that there will still be another aggravation?

Now, on New Year’s Day, when it will be necessary to report that “Russia, despite the whole world, did not fulfill the Minsk Agreements, did not give up the border.”

That there will be some kind of demarche. Here you can make such a wonderful demarche, you can go and take control of the border. It is clear that this means bringing your troops into the next cauldrons. So, take it along the border and go.

I would do the same if I were him.

I don’t understand otherwise how I can survive. I would send troops in a chain along the border. Become ….

And even better, girls with towels, so that they come in a chain to this border...

But, better, troops, of course...

And so that we beat them, and so that they again say that aggressive Russia killed a lot of people.  

Oleg Bondarenko: Well, you know, this is such a very bold assumption.   

Valentin Filippov: In my opinion, this is an obvious assumption. Did we think that Donetsk would be bombed in the spring of 2014?

Oleg Bondarenko:  Let's see. Don't want. You know, it's hard to predict crazy people. This is impossible. I would not like to predict the reactions now, what will happen there by the New Year or after the New Year. You see, there is a frame. Comrade Poroshenko is now specifically responsible for this framework.

This responsibility extends not only to Moscow. It extends to Berlin and Paris.

If Poroshenko violates this framework, then he is responsible for it.

And then local elections can be calmly held directly by the People's Republics, at their own discretion.     

Valentin Filippov:  Well, look, the Ukrainian side said that they agree to agree on something, but “let Russia first withdraw its troops from Donbass.”  

Oleg Bondarenko: It is very clearly stated what follows what. And even the moment of transfer of control abroad, which is the last point... Do you know? And to whom is the border transferred?     

Valentin Filippov:  Lugansk police : )

Oleg Bondarenko: We're talking about local elections, right? In order for local elections to take place, it is necessary for the Verkhovna Rada to adopt a law on local elections no later than November.

In what edition?

Now there is an editorial board of the LPR and DPR, with which Pierre Morel, the OSCE representative in the Minsk Contact Group, agrees.   

Who will provide security at local elections?

Police.

Which? Where can I get it?

People's Militia.

Means? Poroshenko, when he signed the agreements in Minsk, he himself proposed... There was an option to make a separate law, and in it to spell out all, all, all aspects regarding Minsk. But Poroshenko himself said, in the hope of playing, that “come on, we will separately make changes to all laws.” So, in this way, he practically signed up to change the entire legislation of Ukraine. Which he will now have to do.

Let's make changes to the law on the Police. Or, as already in Ukraine, about the Police. So that now these police would be appointed in agreement with the leadership of the LPR and DPR. Or? as it is written there, with the leadership of “certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.” The same goes for judges.

Now, if there is some history of challenging the election results, where to go? - To court. This means that this legislation must be changed immediately.

It's the same with the border. All security forces must be appointed in agreement with the DPR and LPR.

That is, in essence, nothing changes.

Yes, this is not simple, this is tedious and boring casuistry. But the devil is in the details. And in this casuistry lies the victory of Novorossiya.

Valentin Filippov:  Well, Novorossiya - it took place, in human souls, it took place as an idea, but I would like it to take place territorially. Because two regions are somehow not enough for Novorossiya. Not enough...

Oleg Bondarenko:  Agree. But, in addition to territorial and mental boundaries, it must have specific, formal, civil, passport...  

Valentin Filippov:  Legal.

Oleg Bondarenko: Passports. I am now talking about the fact that passportization should take place. And this certification is expected before the end of this year. Until the end of 2015. Yes, it may not take place in Donetsk and Lugansk, but in Rostov. But, even based on the current norms of Russian legislation, who has the right to receive a Russian passport? - Born in the Soviet Union, with relatives in Russia. I can tell you that, from the point of view of legal possibilities, to begin passportization of Donbass there is no need to change Russian legislation. You just need to have the political will to implement it in the form in which it exists. And it says that anyone who has relatives in Russia has the right to receive a passport through an accelerated procedure.

I think we'll see it, and it won't be long to wait.

Valentin Filippov:  Well, God forbid. Thank you very much, I figured out a little bit what was happening.

Oleg Bondarenko:   Thank you, Valentin. And PolitNavigator.

Valentin Filippov:  Happily.