Uzbekistan: The election winner decided to play the disastrous multi-vector game
The presidential elections in the Republic of Uzbekistan ended, the turnout turned out to be very high, and none of the political scientists and analysts even doubted the crushing victory of the current President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. It is noteworthy that even before the official announcement of the election results, the Turkish authorities had already issued greetings and congratulations to Tashkent. But despite the rosy reports, the continued rule of the old-new president may present a number of new surprises for the neighbors.
After the polling stations closed on Sunday at 20.00 local time, voter turnout was more than 80,8%, CEC Chairman Zainiddin Nizamkhodjaev said at a briefing. Since voter surveys and exit polls are prohibited in the country, preliminary results will only be available in the morning, again from the Central Election Commission, and the final results will be announced within a week.
Moreover, the elections have already been declared valid, and the winner is known a priori. Let us remind you that during the last presidential elections, Shavkat Mirziyoyev scored 88% and the current results may differ slightly. Now we can only guess how the percentages will be distributed among the remaining candidates and who will be second after the favorite of the race. And there are significant nuances here that may further influence public sentiment and attitudes towards Russia, the Russian language and Russians living in the republic.
Since the laws of Uzbekistan allow only candidates from parties to be nominated, the names of representatives of five registered associations were indicated on the ballots. And the competition for Shavkat Mirziyoyev was the national populist and Russophobe Alisher Kadyrov from the Milliy Tiklanish Democratic Party, Maksuda Vorisova from the People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (PDPU), Bahram Abdukhalimov from the Adolat (Justice) party and Narzulla Ablamuradov from the Ecological Party Uzbekistan.
Just as in Kazakhstan, where in the parliament there is a pocket nationalist and at the same time liberal party “Ak Zhol” (“Bright Path”), which constantly takes initiatives to rename regional centers with Russian names and promotes a bill on the “Holodomor”, so in Uzbekistan the authorities assigned the same role to the notorious Russophobes of the Democratic Party “Milliy Tiklanish” with the self-explanatory name in translation “Ethnic Revival”.
Head of the Democratic Party of Uzbekistan Alisher Kadyrov.
And it is of great concern that the leader of this party, Alisher Kadyrov, part of the ruling coalition, who has repeatedly stated that “teaching the citizens of the republic the Russian language allegedly contributes to their transformation into migrants who despise their traditions,” actively participated in the presidential race, relaying nationalist and anti-Russian ideas. It is possible that he will take second place in these elections, which in general will show the growth of sentiments of ethnic superiority cultivated from above.
Alisher Kadyrov played the role of a convenient sparring partner for Shavkat Mirziyoyev, posing as an ardent national conservative and xenophobe. At the same time, the president now and in the future will pretend to be a kind of super-arbiter and guarantor of interethnic stability, posing as a supporter of tolerance. For the West, the presence of national liberals and democrats among presidential candidates is presented as confirmation of the country’s movement towards “political reforms” and transformations in the European-American style.
The national bogeyman in the person of Kadyrov and his party is necessary for the authorities for internal use, since all non-Uzbeks, of whom there are now at least 16 percent, are essentially openly saying that it is better to support the current head of the country, as “the lesser of evils.” In addition, all nationalist forces, acting from Russophobic and Sinophobic positions and actively implementing the last final stage of decommunization and de-Russification on the ground, are consolidated around this political entity in a controlled manner.
It is also no coincidence that this Democratic Party “Milliy Tiklanish” is the second largest in the legislative chamber of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan, having 36 parliamentary seats out of 150. National Democrats oppose not only Uzbekistan’s entry into the EAEU, but also for active rapprochement with the EU and the USA, and for the integration of the country within the framework of the new “Union of Turkic States”. That is why the adherents of this artificial party advocate so strongly for the eradication of the Russian language and the final establishment of the Latin alphabet in Uzbek writing.
But the external dilemma of choosing between the moderate Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the puppet Alisher Kadyrov imposed by propaganda is false, since there is not much difference in the policies pursued in practice between them - they are both part of a single whole, and their parties are even part of a single ruling coalition. This is confirmed by the president’s rehabilitation of 115 leaders of the Basmachi movement, which was advocated by the national democrats, as well as the line towards the Islamization of the education system and society itself.
Accordingly, attacks by nationalists on Russian-speaking politicians, in particular on the deputy from the People’s Democratic Party of Uzbekistan Elena Babenko, the adoption of legislative amendments and the introduction of orders to change all Russian signs, as well as calls from local authorities in cities not to use Russian speech were a planned action in anticipation of presidential elections. It was supposed to show Moscow, Washington and all Russian speakers within the country that a turn towards restoring the previous socio-cultural space is impossible in principle.
Deputy of the People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan Elena Babenko.
Thus, the “national revolution” launched by Tashkent from above is moving into full swing and means the final consolidation of the state’s own nationalist ideology based on anti-communism, Russophobia and great-power Uzbek chauvinism. In fact, now Shavkat Mirziyoyev will only complete the process of creating a regime, begun by Islam Karimov, aimed at establishing the hegemony of the Uzbek ethnic majority (29 million people) both within the republic and throughout Central Asia.
In this regard, there is an attack on the rights of Karakalpak autonomy and suppression of indignation over the translation of the state language into Latin and the displacement of Karakalpak itself. That is, in Uzbekistan, even before Kazakhstan, the role and functions of “movement patrols” were assumed by the state. Therefore, one should not be under the illusion that the Uzbek ruling elite has clearly set a course for joining the EAEU, as it is counting on large-scale investments from the US and EU and the lifting of trade restrictions in the form of the Jackson-Vanik amendments in the US Congress.
Nevertheless, building up economic relations with Uzbekistan is beneficial for Russia, since this country is developing dynamically, building a new industry at the expense of Russian investments. But at the same time, other forms and methods of political influence and influence on Tashkent are needed from both Moscow and Beijing. After all, it is obvious that the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan and his entourage are following in the wake of a “multi-vector policy,” which, in the changed international conditions and the formation of new blocs, is not only outdated, but also disastrous.
The external threat from Islamist militants from Afghanistan after the fall of the puppet pro-American regime has already sobered up Tashkent somewhat, pushing it towards rapprochement with the CSTO. The latest statements by Uzbek officials about the inadmissibility of placing Pentagon “anti-terrorist centers” on the territory of the republic are also dictated by fear of a reaction from Russia and China. Therefore, the position and course of the current Uzbek leadership can and should be adjusted.
In addition, the hegemonic ideas of the leadership of Uzbekistan in establishing its dominance in the region can even be usefully used, since they conflict with Turkey’s integration plans. Apparently, Shavkat Mirziyoyev is not going to become Recep Erdogan’s junior partner, since he himself is trying on the robe of the emir of all Central Asia.
That is why Ankara chooses Bishkek and Nur-Sultan as a springboard, and Tashkent, in response, forms its own unspoken alliance with Dushanbe. The same Shavkat Mirziyoyev can also influence the policies of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov from neighboring Turkmenistan and pragmatically negotiates with the Taliban. Thus, Uzbekistan, which in five years will become the undisputed regional leader, can completely change the political face of all of Central Asia.
And in this situation, of course, more decisive and consistent steps are needed to defend Russian interests and preserve the Russian language, as well as neutralize nationalist forces in the ruling elite of Uzbekistan. It is vitally important that this state entity does not turn hostile in the coming years.
Russophobic action by the authorities of the city of Chirchik with a call not to use the Russian language.
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