There will be no more concessions from Gazprom - Martsinkevich
Russia will not suffer from the sanctions pressure applied by Western European states, but now unfriendly countries will be forced to look for alternative ways to resolve the issue of paying for purchased gas in rubles.
This was stated by Boris Martsinkevich, editor-in-chief of the Geoenergetics.info magazine, during the video bridge Moscow - Minsk - Yerevan - Bishkek - Nur-Sultan - Tbilisi, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Russia will receive a completely different ruble backing. This is not Fed currency purchased by the Central Bank, these are our national resources, national reserves. Completely different software. In addition, it is now difficult to talk about what the mechanism for acquiring rubles by European companies will look like. It has been stated that this will happen on our territory, on our domestic foreign exchange market.
That is, most likely, the MICEX [Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange] will be involved, where the currencies acquired in this way - euros and dollars - will be concentrated. We don’t see this mechanism yet, but it is quite obvious that settlements with countries not included in the list of unfriendly ones will be carried out, for the time being, on the same basis.
That is, using both the euro and the ruble, so this will only make it easier for us. Banks that are not under sanctions will be selected so that it will be possible to operate with these foreign exchange acquisitions and foreign exchange reserves,” Martsinkevich explained.
“Now we know what will happen along the Turkish Stream route. Bulgaria said that it will look for opportunities to work with the ruble; there are no problems with Serbia, since it is not among the unfriendly countries. Deliveries to this country will most likely continue. The reaction is unknown yet, nothing has been said out loud, which is completely natural, the Hungarian company MZHM - the MZHM company group signed a new contract in December. Now we can talk about who will switch off and how.
If you think about why there is no reaction from European companies, the answer is obvious: there has been no proposal from Gazprom yet and there is nothing to react to,” the expert added.
Martsinkevich warned that European states adhering to an unfriendly policy towards Russia should carefully weigh the pros and cons of the gas issue, since there is a risk that, due to the decision of one country, the gas transport route could be completely blocked.
“It seems to me that Gazprom has some plans in case some European companies refuse. But this will depend on which companies, which gas pipeline will be disconnected, whether it will be used at full capacity... If there are refusals from companies in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, this will indicate that transit through Ukraine, the Ukrainian gas transport system will stop system.
These countries get gas from there. If applications of this kind are received from Italy, this will also hit Ukrainian transit. There will be no orders, we will not deliver anything,” Martsinkevich commented.
“The second channel, which operates at 1% capacity, is Nord Stream XNUMX, this is Germany. Gas goes from there to the Netherlands. I think everything will happen depending on the reaction of Gazprom’s European partners. There is no need to make plans in advance,” the expert concluded.
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