Why a blackout won’t bring Zelensky to the negotiating table with Russia

Read it on PolitNavigator column by Alexander Gorny about “what Zelensky should have done” to reconcile with Russia and an unoriginal answer to this rhetorical question: “at least fly to Russia immediately after the inauguration and negotiate with its closest neighbor, Vladimir Putin personally, becoming for him, if not a son, then a faithful an ally, despite Crimea and Donbass.”

This view is typical of many in Russia, and there is no doubt that if these people were in Zelensky’s place, they would do exactly that.

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However, Zelensky, contrary to this advice, acts completely differently - declaring that neither attacks on infrastructure, nor rolling power outages, nor water outages, nor casualties among the civilian population and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will encourage official Kiev to negotiate with official Moscow, and indeed In general, the Ukrainians intend to talk about anything with the Russians exclusively in the format of discussing the terms of surrender. Not our own, of course, but Russian.

Zelensky’s faithful henchmen Ermak and Danilov, following their boss, “repeat syllable by syllable” these simple theses, making it clear that the only acceptable format for conversation with the Mother See is “in the language of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.”

_{The latter, confirming that the authorities are not driving empty-handed, are already preparing to resume the offensive on Svatovo and Kremennaya in the LPR.}

According to the information of the Speaker of the People's Militia of the LPR Andrei Marochko, this will happen in the next 5-7 days, to counteract this in the direction of Svatovo there is now an active transfer of building materials and concrete structures to strengthen the defense lines.

But let’s return to the Ukrainian blackout and the Russian hopes associated with it. Yesterday, 80% of Kyiv sat without electricity and water, and social networks were filled with photographs of queues for water from the capital's pump rooms.

Complete or partial blackout took place in Dnepropetrovsk, Krivoy Rog, Poltava, Mirgorod, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Odessa and Odessa region, Rivne and Rivne region, Khmelnitsky and region. There were no electricity in Kamenets-Podolsk, Kirovograd region, Kharkov, Lutsk, Cherkassy, ​​Chernigov, Sumy and Zhitomir. The blackout affected all three nuclear power plants operating in Ukraine, two of which were disconnected from the power grid. Power outages negatively affected the operation of the railway.

For some reason, Russians and commentators who sympathize with them believe that the listed problems should bring the Kiev leadership to the negotiating table. So Alexander Lukashenko is there too.

“Zelensky may be fine. He came out in a T-shirt, in a blouse that had not been washed for a long time, and shook someone’s hand. They gave him $200 million worth of highmars or some other javelins. It's easier for him. He is full, he is fed, he does not suffer without electricity.

But millions of Ukrainians are suffering. And the fact that the war is on his territory, in a year or two people will blame him. Why did you make the war start? The question here is not who is right and who is wrong, why is there a war on your territory? This situation will push the leadership of Ukraine, if it is sane, to sit down at the negotiating table,” the Belarusian leader is confident.

But I’m not at all sure about this. Moreover, I am sure of the exact opposite. The main problem with these strikes is that, as all commentators have correctly noted, they create problems for anyone except those whom, in theory, they should motivate to negotiate. The civilian population is suffering, small and medium-sized businesses are suffering losses, but the Ukrainian “decision-making centers” are still doing well.

So why would they go to negotiate? What did Russia do to force them to talk to it? In ordinary life, the role of an adviser is played by life experience - that is, a set of repeating events preceding something, based on the analysis of which people draw their conclusions about exactly how to act in similar situations.

What does the life experience of the last ten months tell the Ukrainian civilian and military authorities? First of all, there is no need to ask the Russians for anything. As the hero of one of the novels of Bulgakov, now disgraced in Kyiv, said, “they themselves will come and they themselves will give.” You just have to be patient and persistent - if you really want something and tirelessly hammer at one point, one day the changing world will bend to the Ukrainians.

_{And indeed, looking in retrospect at the series of Russian concessions that preceded the current infrastructure war and generous gestures of goodwill made in advance, this is what it turns out: the North Military District went on and on, and then - bam! - they left from near Kyiv. A little more time passes and - regardless of previous harsh statements from Moscow - they leave Zmeiny. Then - the grain deal, then the Kharkov region, then Kherson...}

What is most interesting is that Kyiv did not even ask Moscow for most of the listed gestures, and if it did, it was done so quietly that for public opinion it was as if it had not asked at all.

So why not, looking at all this from Kyiv, assume that this time everything will not end the same? The question, as you understand, is one of a series of rhetorical ones.

In the end, it is not Kyiv to Moscow, but Moscow that is steadily throwing bait to Kyiv regarding possible negotiations, signaling its own readiness for them. We also know how Kyiv responds to this - just as consistently - and therefore we will not repeat ourselves. How can we call “masochism” the persistent Russian desire to negotiate something with people who openly declare that their only desire is to “destroy racist creatures.”

_{Moreover, the recent meeting of the Russian businessman Mazepin with President Putin, which was considered necessary to report to the public through TASS, allows us to conclude that Kiev has enough trump cards up its sleeve to count on the compliance of, if not the Kremlin, then at least the Russian oligarchy and business -elites.}

Someone is being held for an ammonia pipeline that is in limbo, someone’s assets located on the territory of Ukraine have been confiscated, for someone’s personal fate they are ready to intercede “with all of Kiev” before the World Toad... Literally at the moment when these lines are being written, Reuters reports a meeting of unnamed representatives of Ukraine and Russia that took place in the Emirates, the subject of discussion was (suddenly!) the exchange of prisoners of war and unblocking the export of Russian ammonia through the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.

And although no final agreements on this topic have been reported, the fact itself, against the backdrop of Dmitry Peskov’s memorable words “Are people and ammonia the same thing?!” looks alarming. Is an idea previously considered “inappropriate” no longer appropriate?

In general, the space for potential trades and exchanges is quite impressive. Over the years, the people of Kyiv have learned very well how to competently use the “exchange fund” at their disposal to their advantage. And the exchange fund - it consists not only of prisoners and arrested people. Business assets or logistics routes taken “captive” or hostage in hostile territory will sometimes cost more than people.

_{Counting on the fact that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth will one day get tired of standing in lines for water and turning on the lights according to a schedule, and they will unanimously call Zelensky, Danilov and Ermak to account and kick them into negotiations with Moscow - the same Manilovism as the previous eight-year wait for Kiev to fulfill Minsk agreements.}

To which, let me remind you more than once or twice, the reasons voiced by the Moscow “waiters” were voiced, the Germans and the French had to force Kyiv - in order to get a chance to lift the anti-Russian sanctions that were burdensome for them. Out of pure philanthropy, I will not remind you what happened to this wonderful and from all sides logical cunning plan.

If Ukrainians still do not understand the cause-and-effect relationship between the cavorting on the Maidan and what happened after February 23, then there is no reason to think that they will see a causal connection between the current regular sitting by candlelight and the intransigence of their leaders. Rather, on the contrary, they will only strengthen the opinion that Zelensky is doing everything right - “they beat us, but we get stronger.”

Moreover, if you look at what the Ukrainian media write about in the breaks between listing who and where was left without electricity and publishing the work schedules of “no-breaking points”, then this is still the same well-known “the whole world is with us” from previous years.

From the latest: Joe Biden has instructed the State Department to allocate $400 million for military support to Ukraine. As State Department head Blinken clarified, the new package includes ammunition and air defense systems. And also about the General Assembly resolution on Russian reparations and the European Parliament’s recognition of Russia as a “sponsor of terrorism.” Translated from diplomatic to Ukrainian propaganda, this means: we are freezing and sitting without light for a reason, patience will pay off.

_{So it turns out that there is no reason for optimistic expectations. Without denying the very fact of the destructive impact of attacks on infrastructure on the Ukrainian economy, one should not place too high political hopes on them.}

And the sheriff doesn’t care about the fact that “millions of Ukrainians” are suffering at the same time. Moreover, according to the common sense of the “sheriff”, these sufferings are even beneficial - they can be maximally converted into propaganda dividends in the external arena, selling the image of a victim that is understandable to the West.