Why Kyiv has already lost in Donbass
Having refused to enter into peace negotiations with opponents and repeatedly rejected compromise on ideological points, Kyiv lost in the Donbass without a military outcome of the military operation.
Even if the war ends with an unconditional victory for the troops loyal to Petro Poroshenko and the defeat of the supporters of Novorossiya, there should be little reason for joy in Kyiv.
Who and at what cost will restore infrastructure, residential buildings, medical and social institutions, bridges, and enterprises? The state budget of Ukraine in the coming years is a pitiful sight. The hope for foreign and domestic investment, as Poroshenko is talking about today, is absolutely groundless, because it is quite difficult to find those willing to invest money in a region where there is a regular threat of terrorist attacks.
Why will there be such a threat in Donbass? This forecast has all the favorable components:
1. The ideological component of the performer. It will not be difficult to provoke a person who has lost a close relative or entire family as a result of bombing and shelling to carry out a terrorist attack.
2. Availability of instruments of terror. The population will have a huge amount of weapons and explosives in their hands and in various caches. It will take law enforcement decades to seize these arsenals. Weapons and ammunition from the Second World War are still regularly confiscated throughout Ukraine. And if weapons from the middle of the last century are of more collectible interest, then modern models will be used for their intended purpose.
3. Availability of knowledge and practice of terror. A fairly large number of people from the local population will have professional skills in handling firearms and explosives. Therefore, even yesterday’s schoolboy can make a bomb, fire at a checkpoint or a regional police station.
Many regions went through similar situations at different times. Thus, in the territory of the western regions of Ukraine, the remnants of Bandera and other rabble terrorized the Soviet authorities, with the relative loyalty of the local population, until the mid-50s of the last century. At the turn of the century, the Russian Federation faced a similar problem in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, and a wave of terrorism also shook the cities of central Russia.
Please note: the propaganda efforts of official Kyiv are not aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but at further ideological division. One part of the population is labeled as heroes, the other as terrorists and “Colorados.”
This leads to conflicts within families, when relatives take diametrically opposed positions in understanding what is happening in the southeast. It will only get worse. By banning undesirable parties and establishing a dictatorship of Mrs. Farion’s ideology, Ukraine will only aggravate the existing contradictions.
Both in Slavyansk and Lvov they will remember hundreds of coffins, blame each other for the death of loved ones and honor their heroes. Like in a distorting mirror, the surviving rebels of Donbass will repeat the fate of the UPA fighters and other paramilitary forces outlawed after the victory in the Second World War. Prisons, camps and an ineradicable desire for revenge.
The “winners” themselves will create many problems both at the state and local levels. The state will receive a stable item of expenditure for the next 50-70 years in the form of payment of pensions to veterans and ATO participants (they will, at a minimum, be considered participants in hostilities), disability pensions, both for those who fought on the side of Kyiv and for civilians affected by hostilities . Various compensations, benefits, subsidies, etc., add up to an astronomical figure. Any attempts by the authorities to cut or abolish these payments will lead to picketing by “ATO veterans” of state authorities with weapons in their hands (the fact that a huge amount of weapons will remain in attics and basements is beyond doubt). Monstrous forms of warfare will not pass without leaving a mark on the psyche of the fighters. The so-called “Afghan” or “Iraqi” syndromes will become a continuous background of criminal chronicles throughout the country.
At the local level, yesterday’s “liberators” will return to peaceful life in minimal numbers; the majority will form the backbone of organized criminal groups, because it is easier to rob than to plow. All this will be framed as territorial self-defense organizations, centers for the patriotic education of youth and preparation for the “imminent invasion of Russia.” The sensitive leadership of these “patriots” will be taken over by oligarchs of all ranks and sizes, because privatization will not last forever, and soon they will have to not only vigilantly guard their property, but also take away someone else’s. The showdowns of the mid-90s of the last century will take on new forms, up to and including criminal microwars on a city or regional scale.
Against this background, the central Kiev government, every year, will lose its position in the leadership of the country. Ministries and departments will no longer have any influence on the regions. The security bloc and the army, as the support and guarantee of the security of any state, have discredited and admitted their complete helplessness at this stage, and it will only get worse.
As soon as the last even remotely worthwhile object is privatized, the very post of head of state, minister, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada will lose its coveted meaning, because there will be a lot of claims, all opportunities for enrichment have already been exhausted by predecessors, and the likelihood of various kinds of “Maidans and impeachments” with early leaving office will be extremely large.
Thus, having achieved at the cost of thousands of human lives the formal existence of the “United Kraina”, the Kyiv governors of the US State Department will receive a geopolitical formation with the formal characteristics of a unitary state, but in fact a territory deprived of state power and governed by several oligarchs. And if American and European moneybags hope to take part in at least the final part of the large-scale privatization of state property in Ukraine, then they probably underestimate the acumen, determination and unscrupulousness of the local feudal lords, who, having at their disposal already battle-hardened armies, will not give up anything to the “alien Varangians” one tasty piece of pie.
Even if, recalling the “cookies on the Maidan”, one of the overseas curators is able to snatch a factory or two, then sooner or later he will still fall into the field of interests of the local oligarchy, and the asset will be “squeezed out” first of all, because it is not for him it will be necessary to fight with a neighbor, since “civilized business” will prefer to retreat as soon as tanks with national-patriotic emblems, more reminiscent of a swastika, appear on the horizon.
It is sad to note, but there is an extremely high probability that many of the above-described pessimistic forecasts will in the near future actually come true in Ukraine, regardless of whether it succeeds in defeating Novorossiya or not.
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