Why Kyiv urgently needs to negotiate with the DPR and LPR
The proclaimed Novorossiya is not just a hot spot or a gray zone, as is always the case with self-proclaimed states. At the moment, it is the world's largest point of attraction for weapons, adventurers and bloody capital. Even military suppression of one of the parties will not solve, but will multiply the problems of both the long-suffering population and the state as a whole.
Who benefits from war?
“Who benefits from this” has been a key policy question since ancient Rome. The continuation and escalation of the armed conflict is beneficial to the United States. Thus, it will be possible to finally quarrel between Europe and Russia, which will provide America with a market that will save them from the crisis of overproduction. First of all, this is the energy market.
A war with scorched earth tactics is beneficial to Europe and Kyiv. The ATO zone contains rich shale gas deposits. All Eurozone states have abandoned its production on their territories, since its production technology leads to a terrible environmental disaster. There can be no talk of any agriculture in the poisoned and eroded territories. After the ATO, either there will be no one to protest, or state terror will suppress any protest movements.
Even the oligarchs who own high-tech enterprises also benefit from the war in the ATO zone. Over the years of independence, they pumped out enough money to build new ones, and even Europe promises to “insure” with its loans. In any case, it will not be them who will pay off the loans, but the impoverished population for the next twenty years, earning money on the outskirts of Europe. It is no secret that the country has so far been saved from default by the money of labor migrants, who invest about 10% of GDP annually in the Ukraine project. The outflow of capital was a little less, so the economy grew.
Even the calm, “peaceful” part of Ukraine is happy. Orders for the defense industry, military affairs and near-political fuss promise to ease unemployment.
Split within the state as a principle of management
Poroshenko’s rhetoric, which focuses on attracting “effective managers” to govern the state, became clear when reading his project to amend the Constitution. By introducing parallel power structures, it splits society, turning even peaceful regions into areas of cold civil war. Not to mention the fact that the civil war in the hot phase in Novorossiya provides ample opportunities for any manipulation. A creative class of managers is needed in order to balance on the razor's edge, pitting opposing sides against each other and not allowing either to win. In addition to evidence of the weakness of the government, the polarization of society indicates the defenselessness of the state against any external enemy.
Mercenaries and private armies
The insolvency of its own army was revealed during the first and second waves of mobilization. Hostilities had to be led by mercenaries, both local and foreign. Foreign and oligarchic private armies, fortunately, have not yet been able to find a common language with each other. But the number of diverse armed groups is unknown. It is unknown how many marauders and armed gangs of adventurers from all over the world operate on the territory of Novorossiya. So, Strelkov’s first business was in Donetsk determined the fight against saboteurs and looters inside the city.
Should you be afraid of a man with a gun?
The medieval truth that an armed man will never submit to an unarmed man has evolved in a completely unexpected way in the twenty-first century. A situation in which one decides to live or die to another is a difficult moral choice. It either irreparably deforms the personality, giving birth to a criminal or a fanatic, or it forces one to rise above oneself, giving birth to an ideological, convinced, independent-minded person, ready to go to the very end. In any case, Novorossia, through military art and force of arms, proved its right to independently choose the path of state building. Not only the authorities of Kyiv, but also some political forces within Russia found this fact threatening. This is indirectly evidenced by the recent demarche regarding Strelkov Kurginyan. There is no doubt that it was not caused by the actions of the commander-in-chief of the DPR during the retreat from Slavyansk, but by some hidden ideological contradictions. Most likely, Strelkov’s extraordinary organizational potential and ability to make independent decisions gives rise not only to envy, but also to fears among political players in Russia itself. True, another option is possible here.
Peace is the only alternative
Kurginyan’s hysterical tricks and the non-recognition of statehood by Russia indicate that even complete victory of Novorossiya forces over Kyiv will force it to exist for a long time in a state of siege in a ring of enemies, as was the case with the young Country of the Soviets.
The victory of Kyiv will give Kyiv itself into the hands of the occupying troops, with the help of which it won. You don't have to look far for examples. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya are sovereign states in name only.
Only a truce and a compromise will force the mercenaries to leave the territory of Ukraine without slurping and embody the ideas of a strong, truly independent state built on the principles of social justice of those who are ready to die for them. And this will be beneficial to both the people of Donbass and the people of Ukraine.
But, apparently, this is just my sincere desire...
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