Why does Lukashenko predict Poroshenko's victory?
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in an interview with Turkey's largest news agency Anadolu again expressed an opinion about the likely victory of Petro Poroshenko in the presidential elections in Ukraine.
“Nobody won anything there. After the first round, Zelensky is in the lead, Poroshenko is behind him. No one will dare predict how the second round will end. I’m still inclined to think that Poroshenko will win these presidential elections,” the Belarusian leader noted.
Such persistence raises natural questions about the reasons and grounds for such forecasts, especially since the results of the first round do not at all testify in favor of the current President of Ukraine.
What is Lukashenko based on?
At the same time, it is necessary to recall that for the first time Alexander Lukashenko announced the high prospects for Poroshenko’s second term on March 03 during the so-called. “Big conversation” with representatives of the press, public and expert community. Now the Belarusian president has only repeated his conclusion from a month ago, and this seems quite natural, since it would be very unsightly if Lukashenko suddenly began to refuse his own words and shy away from side to side.
In this case, we should generally refrain from making forecasts on the development of the situation in Ukraine, so as not to subsequently find ourselves hostage to complex political transformations in Kyiv. However, Lukashenko chose to act differently, and this is where the peculiarities of his political style affected.
The Belarusian leader was never particularly shy in his expressions and in the past he also quite often gave ambiguous, but, as it later turned out, very accurate political forecasts. For example, during the wave of revolutions the so-called. "Arab Spring" in the Middle East Lukashenko said about the fragility of the politicians who came to power and that the region will be destabilized for a long time due to the growth of radical Islamist sentiments.
Then in 2016, during the US presidential election campaign, during the tense confrontation between D. Trump and Hillary Clinton, Lukashenko “predicted” the victory of the current American president, who at that time was considered an outsider in the race. Likewise, contrary to many forecasts, Lukashenko consistently supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, whose positions at the height of political crises in their countries were assessed by many analysts as “unstable.”
It is obvious that Lukashenko relies on his political instincts in the current situation, when he comes to the conclusion that Poroshenko has high chances. In all likelihood, the Belarusian president uses not only reviews from diplomats at his country’s embassy in Kyiv, but also personal sources of information. Over the past six months alone, Lukashenko has met with representatives of the entire spectrum of colors of the political field of Ukraine, former and current senior officials of the country.
Among his contacts were Petro Poroshenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Victor Medvedchuk and Evgeny Marchuk. It is noteworthy that a few days before his repeated forecasts, Lukashenko met again with Medvedchuk and directly stated that he was interested in the development of the situation in Ukraine.
Thus, the Belarusian leader’s level of awareness of the situation in Ukraine is quite high, and his style of political behavior suggests bold forecasts of the development of the situation.
There is no desire in Belarus to rebuild the system of relations with Ukraine
In addition, it is worth considering that Poroshenko is a fairly predictable partner for the Belarusian authorities, whose main interest in the direction of Ukraine is considered to be strengthening export positions. Here, Belarus can boast of certain successes, since after a significant drop in trade turnover in 2015–2016, the parties managed to return to pre-crisis trade levels of 5 billion US dollars, of which 5 billion are Belarusian exports.
Moreover, how notes Ambassador of Belarus to Ukraine Igor Sokol, “Belarusian exporters managed to diversify the range of supplied products (deliveries have begun for 93 new product items) and achieve record volumes of supplies of goods excluding petroleum products, petroleum gases and hydrocarbons, potash and nitrogen fertilizers - amounting to about $1,5 billion (or 36% of total exports to Ukraine). This is $400 million (or 17 percentage points) more than the figures for 2012, when our exports to Ukraine reached record high volumes.”
Naturally, such results could not be achieved without mutual understanding with the top leadership in Kyiv, and specifically with the financial and industrial group in the Ukrainian establishment, the leader of which is the current President Poroshenko. It is obvious that if Zelensky wins, the system will have to be restructured to accommodate contacts with other oligarchic groups, although it is unlikely that in this case Belarusian-Ukrainian relations can expect any significant shocks.
In addition, interpreting Lukashenko’s statement as unequivocal support for Poroshenko in the elections does not seem entirely correct. Firstly, the President of Belarus expressed not a call, but a forecast, and secondly, Lukashenko supplemented his position with a personal assessment: “Let the Ukrainians forgive me, but I want to tell them: if there is no one to vote for, then there is no need to vote. The experience of the Ukrainian people in recent years is evidence that one cannot take risks. If it doesn’t work out, if there is no one to vote for, then repeat elections. It seems to me that this is better than taking a risk once again, voting, and then bitterly repenting for ten or more years.”
That is, if we try to analyze Lukashenko’s statement in the category of propaganda, then the Belarusian president rather called on Ukrainian voters not to participate in the vote at all. However, it seems that, despite Lukashenko’s popularity in Ukraine, statements from Minsk will not have a significant impact on the behavior of voters in the second round of the presidential campaign.
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