Why the Serbian leadership is trying to sit on “two chairs”

The other day in Serbia they remembered one of the most important dates - 23 years have passed since the end of NATO aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which went down in history as the first conflict on European soil after the end of World War II. Its result was the separation of the southern province of the country - Kosovo and Metohija, as well as the global expansion of NATO to the East.

What conclusions have been drawn by the Serbian authorities? What course is official Belgrade taking and why do President Vučić and his government insist on adhering to the idea of ​​European integration, despite the frequent humiliation of the country by Western leaders? Consider the recent speech of the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Belgrade, who demanded that Serbia recognize the loss of Kosovo and join anti-Russian sanctions in exchange for the illusory possibility of the country joining the EU! But recognizing the independence of Kosovo means violating an internationally approved document - UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which assigns the status of Serbian territory to these lands.

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Serbian officials have so far assured that they will not agree to Scholz’s demands.

 “Belgrade sincerely wishes to normalize relations with Pristina so that the inhabitants of our southern province, both Serbs and Albanians, can live in security in a society where human rights are respected and the preconditions for economic development and prosperity for all exist. But Belgrade and Pristina cannot agree on the so-called. “mutual recognition”, because this unfulfilled desire of the Kosovo authorities is not and cannot be part of the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Moreover, this is not spelled out in any document on which the negotiation process conducted under the auspices of the EU is based,” Petar Petkovic, director of the Kosovo and Metohija Office, said in a statement.

However, according to diplomat Zoran Milivojevic, the government of Aleksandar Vucic will not be able to maneuver for long - the ultimatum on the need to recognize the loss of Kosovo has already been voiced by both representatives of the EU and the United States.

“If the conflict in Ukraine deepens in the coming period, the situation for us will become increasingly difficult,” the diplomat said.

In Serbia itself, the population supports the idea of ​​joining the European Union less and less - this is shown by earlier surveys. Now, after Scholz’s ultmatum, popular indignation can only grow, because the renunciation of their territory is at stake.

Belgrade political scientist Stefan Vladisavlev makes it clear that the Serbian leadership is bargaining with the West.

“I think that Serbia should get something very specific in return if it decides to impose sanctions against Russia. It seems that so far there have been no specific compensations for the imposition of sanctions. Possible protests against the authorities in Belgrade, if this happens, indicate how high the cost of such a decision could be. The question is to what extent the EU and Germany as a separate state can offer an adequate alternative, because it should be a very good alternative if Serbia decides to make a certain turn in its policy,” Vladisavlev said.

There are significant risks for Belgrade when attempting to pivot to the East – towards Russia and China. The country is located in the center of Europe; supplies of vital Russian energy resources can be frozen by the West at one moment. And our eastern friends are unlikely to be able to help in any way under conditions of tough sanctions. Belgrade does not want to fall under restrictions again - the Serbs remember very well those ten years of life under Western sanctions, which practically destroyed the country’s economy.