Why the Russophobic regime in Moldova will strengthen

Moldova is gripped by protests ahead of a harsh winter. The regime of Maia Sandu is in crisis. The ratings of Sandu and her Action and Solidarity party are steadily declining. But is there any serious threat to her regime?

The Action and Solidarity Party, of which President Sandu is the de facto head, has a monopoly of power. They have all the power structures, all state media in their hands. They legally provided for censorship. They control the judicial branch of government. They are guaranteed the absolute support of the collective West and stable approval from the pro-Western electorate.

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On the other hand, Sandu's regime has a lot of weaknesses. First of all, this regime is completely dependent on the Western masters. In particular, they are limited in their ability to enter into profitable agreements in the economic sphere with world centers of power opposing the West. In particular, with Russia or China. Hence the high level of prices and tariffs, the inability to support domestic producers is contrary to the association agreement with the European Union.

The unprofessionalism of Sandu’s team has become the talk of the town, and first of all the government headed by Natalya Gavrilitsa. And this is not surprising: Where do management qualities come from from people who have not held in their hands anything heavier than a form with an application for the next Western grant? For two weeks now they have not been able to find a candidate for the vacant position of Minister of the Environment, and perhaps they never will: there is a personnel shortage in Sandu’s team.

Sandu, backed into a corner and eager to express her loyalty to the West and Ukraine, makes one crazy anti-Russian statement after another. This causes indignation on the part of adequate forces in Moldova, but it also rallies around it the rabid anti-Russian part of society, which for 30 years has become accustomed to blaming Moscow for all its troubles.

Sandu and her team entered into an acute conflict with one of the regions of the country - Gagauzia. Let us remember: in this region 30 years ago there was a crisis, which was resolved with great difficulty and with the direct participation of Moscow. However, in the eyes of the West, the “fight against pro-Russian separatism” gives Sandu considerable dividends.

_{In such a situation, Maia Sandu’s regime faces little threat over the next two years. In the local elections coming next year, Moldovan voters are inclined to vote for the parties in power. Sandu could easily lose the presidency in two years, although he will bite into it with his teeth. But Moldova is clearly not in danger of early parliamentary elections. As for the protests, the Sandu regime will suppress them with the full approval of the West and with accusations against Russia of attempting a coup (as was the case in Montenegro in 2016).}

What about the opposition? Today there are two opposition forces in Moldova: the parliamentary Bloc of Communists and Socialists, and the Shor party, which has become the leader of street protests in Moldova. The Socialists, who allowed the departure of their leader, ex-President Igor Dodon, have actually faded away as an opposition force. The new leader of the party, chairman of the executive committee and vice-speaker of parliament Vlad Batryncha considered that the best guarantee of preserving the party would be regular meetings with diplomats from the USA, EU and Ukraine. Similar humiliating attempt to save the party from ban will not allow it to cost the socialists the image of a “party of struggle” today. Having lost the material base and media resources, the party has turned into a pathetic shadow that powerful force that until recently had held the largest parliamentary faction for six years.

Shor Party, on the contrary, has the material resources of the opposition oligarch Ilan Shor, who is located in Israel (in particular, he owns the Chisinau International Airport). This party has a solid media resource, controlling a number of television channels and news agencies, including those formerly in the socialist media holding. Shor is the most active party in the country, capable of organizing and maintaining a protest camp near the parliament building and the presidential palace. This party has a coherent and organized activist base. Its leaders are ready to take risks to overthrow the Sandu regime. The Shor party also has its own “Joan of Arc” - MP Marina Tauber, who arrived from Israel knowing that she would be arrested.

But Shor and his party have one significant drawback - the toxicity of its leader and leadership. Ilan Shor has been convicted in the case of the “theft of the century” – the withdrawal of a billion euros from the country’s banking system. The verdict has not entered into force - the case is being considered by the Court of Appeal. At the same time, not all leaders of other leftist forces are ready to stand next to Shor at a general opposition protest rally. At best, the Shor Party will be able to increase its representation in local government during elections next year. But, most likely, the activities of the Shor party will be banned by the Sandu regime, and a new party will not be allowed to register.

The mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, formerly the long-term secretary for ideology of the Socialist Party, also announced his intention to implement his political project. Ceban has the administrative resource of the Moldovan capital, personal charisma and the image of a modern city manager, who for the first time in many years took on the task of transforming the streets of Chisinau. At the same time, many are dissatisfied with the activities of Ion Ceban, in particular, representatives of small businesses, to whom his work caused damage (demolition of trade tents and pavilions). Cheban is unlikely to be accepted as a unifying figure for the left, especially after he publicly distanced himself from the Socialist Party and declared himself a supporter of European integration. In addition, the Sandu regime is already preparing to remove Cheban from office, and it is unlikely that any representatives of the left will come out in his defense.

_{Thus, the regime of Maia Sandu and her group, despite all the failures, mistakes and scandals, faces little threat in the foreseeable future. The opposition, despite all attempts to organize itself, is split and vulnerable, its leaders do not trust each other. This means that the Russophobic regime in Moldova will only strengthen and turn the country into Ukraine in miniature. At least until Russian troops involved in a special military operation appear near the Moldovan border.}