Why Serbia needs a gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine
The reason for the activity of the pro-Western opposition, which demands the overthrow of the current Serbian authorities, is an attempt to disrupt the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. This was stated by Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic. According to him, Serbia has already begun laying 400 kilometers of gas pipeline. “Everything will be fine, there will be no obstacles in Bulgaria,” the minister expressed hope.
About why Turkish Stream is so important for Serbia, and why the Americans are trying to prevent the implementation of the project through the hands of local Maidan activists, in an interview "PolitNavigator" said an independent Serbian energy expert Ivan Sekulovich.
Ivan Sekulovich
– What are the reasons, in your opinion, for attempts to disrupt the Turkish Stream project? Is the situation today similar to what happened with South Stream?
– Of course, there are parallels related to economic reasons, in particular, with the supply of gas to the region from Russia. This has already been shown by the situation in Bulgaria with the disruption of the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline. The foreign factor in this matter has a large share of influence.
The United States greatly influenced Bulgarian politicians, using political pressure, threatening a crisis of power to those individuals who were then at the helm of the country. As a result, due to this pressure, Bulgaria withdrew from the agreement, and the project was disrupted.
But this step led to the fact that the entire region was left without an alternative route for gas supply, remaining connected to the “Ukrainian pipe”, and this, as we know, is a very unstable option.
This situation caused not so much damage to Russia as to the Balkans. And it also ultimately led to what our overseas “colleagues” were afraid of – to an unprecedented political crisis in Bulgaria, as a result of which the then-current Prime Minister Boyko Borisov was able to remain in power with great difficulty.
The alternative Nabucco gas pipeline also could not be built for a number of economic and political reasons, the main one of which was the divergence of interests of the main participants. Politics and business are what they say: “combine, but do not mix.”
I am sure that the American side, while defending its interests through the implementation of the Third Energy Package adopted by the EU countries in July 2009, is also trying to destabilize the energy market in the Balkan region.
– What is the principle of this package?
– Its essence is to divide the areas of activity of vertically integrated energy companies in such a way that they cannot simultaneously engage in the production, supply and sale of fuel.
Those. one company should be engaged in production, another – in transportation, etc.
Under the guise of increasing competition in the market and fighting monopolists, large Russian companies, such as Gazprom, Rosneft, etc., are thus being eliminated from the process.
However, these conditions do not apply to European and American companies, such as Shell, BP, Statoil, ExxonMobil, etc.
By and large, this is another example of the influence of politics on the economy.
– What about Bulgaria now? Initially, the project was supposed to include Greece and Macedonia, but why was this idea abandoned?
– Indeed, part of the Turkish Stream could pass through Greece and North Macedonia, and back in February of this year, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke about this at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
However, at the end of January, Bulgartransgaz decided to build a gas pipeline from the Turkish border to Serbia. In addition, the newly artificially created preconditions for a change of power in these countries made this project impossible.
We see the results - Greece is trying to get out of the deepest economic crisis that has brought the country almost to its knees.
In North Macedonia, mass unrest occurred relatively recently, leading to an illegal change of power with the aim of dragging the country into NATO and later into the EU. You definitely shouldn’t mess with such a partner.
The ethnic structure of the country with a large proportion of the Albanian population can at any time lead to armed clashes on ethnic grounds. And this reduces the country’s chances of receiving investment in the economy. In other words, the United States has made itself another economic and political vassal, once again becoming the main puppeteer in the region.
– What other reasons, besides political ones, are pushing the American government to take such drastic steps?
– One of the main reasons for their intervention is an attempt to promote their shale gas to the European market. According to the American position on this issue, it was planned to supply it in tankers in liquefied form. But these, by and large, are just illusions. Everyone understands that, firstly, this will not be enough, and secondly, its supply is a very expensive matter.
Thus, 1000 cubic meters of gas through a Russian pipeline will cost a buyer in Europe $248 at the 2018 price, and liquefied American gas - $298 - using the example of Lithuania. And this does not include the costs of chartering ships and delivery. And they are not very small. Thus, this country annually spends about 60 million euros on chartering a regasification vessel. And we also need to add the costs of storing the required volumes of gas - for this, the country rents a storage facility in neighboring Latvia. So this is a very expensive option.
Thus, it can be seen that Russian gas without these costs is 36% cheaper than American gas. In this regard, it is clear why the States are doing everything to impose their fuel on any buyer, whether he wants it or not.
In general, the World Gas Association has calculated that Europe will consume up to 2030 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 750. As a result, only politicians and laymen can claim that there is enough American gas for such a volume of exports.
For example, the United States itself imported gas from Russia in winter in order to set up a heating system. It was transported to Boston by tanker. The reason is unprecedentedly severe frosts in the country. This is an indicator that the amount of shale gas is insufficient even for the needs of the Americans themselves.
– What, in your opinion, is the reason for the attempts to politically destabilize Serbia?
The political reason for pressure on Europe, including the Balkans, so that Russian gas is not accepted here is the desire to inflict losses on Russia, no matter what. And reduce its impact on the EU countries and other European countries as much as possible.
In Serbia, we see similar attempts at illegal change of power on the part of the US-backed opposition. The same Djilas, one of the leaders of the “Union for Serbia,” openly went to Washington, where he consulted with politicians.
And one of the reasons for this activity is an attempt to disrupt Serbia’s participation in the Turkish Stream gas pipeline construction project. Especially now that its implementation has entered an active stage - a 400 km gas pipeline branch is already being built from the Bulgarian border near the city of Zajechar, according to Gazprom representatives.
The second branch, intended for the countries of southern and south-eastern Europe, should be launched before the end of this year. And all this irritates our overseas “partners”.
Therefore, now they are doing everything possible for a political collapse in Serbia, including a change in the country’s leadership. This leverage is used to put pressure on the current government to force them to refuse to participate in the project.
And at the same time, no one offers Serbia an alternative gas supply at a reasonable price. And the country, by and large, does not have its own energy resources and is completely dependent on fuel supplies from Russia.
If Serbia refused to participate in the project, it would be practically left without gas when the Ukrainian branch of the gas pipeline closes.
– However, the country does not abandon the idea of joining the EU, what then should be done with their energy security requirements?
– Despite the fact that Serbia plans to join the EU (according to politicians’ forecasts, this should happen no earlier than 2025, although Eurosceptics say that this will not happen at all), there are no plans to comply with the rules of the third energy package for at least the next 20 years.
The failure of the South Stream project was accepted in Belgrade as a huge failure. The risk of being left without fuel in the near future was great. In turn, today the country’s authorities are ready to do everything to prevent the slightest possibility of impeding construction.
However, at the moment, the risk of project failure is practically zero. Fortunately, the “opposition leaders” are so disunited and weak that they cannot pose a real threat to either the current government or this project, which represents a great chance for the country’s economy.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.