Why the USA will suit any of the leaders of the race in Ukraine
There is a month left before the presidential elections in Ukraine. The period is short, but, as the practice of previous campaigns and world experience shows, during this time many more “black swans” can take off, which will break the current game and radically rewrite the already outlined plot on the canvas. However, if we adhere to the conservative scenario and assume that the remaining four weeks everything will be approximately as it is now, adjusted for the long-awaited “homework” from the headquarters of the race leaders, the result of the elections can be predicted with a high degree of probability now.
Moreover, most likely, the composition of contenders for the mace will not change. March 1st is the deadline by which candidates can withdraw their candidacies in favor of someone else. So far no one has expressed such a desire. There remains intrigue about whether Vladimir Zelensky’s campaign will be “merged,” but judging by the unexpectedly high result of his protégé, Igor Kolomoisky is unlikely to voluntarily throw the joker he got in the game into the trash.
The other two leaders of the race, Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, are doing much worse. And if Poroshenko’s are simply bad, then Yulia Vladimirovna’s are truly terrible. After the catastrophic mistakes of past years, blowing on the water, Yulia Vladimirovna is conducting an extremely cautious campaign that does not shine with either new technological moves or new meanings. Counting not to snatch victory in battle, but to “inherit” power from the weakening hands of the “assailant”, she kept in the shadow of Poroshenko all the way, like an echo repeating all his theses about enemies, about victories, about tomos, army and language. Her “New Deal,” ironically called “new bite” by evil tongues, is so vague that it is practically indistinguishable from the messages of the current guarantor. In fact, Tymoshenko tells the voter that under her it will be “like under grandma,” that is, like under Petro Poroshenko, only the places of the closest hangers-on, instead of the current Kononenok, Berezenok, Granovsky and other Gerasimovs, will be taken by people from “Batkivshina.” And the country will rush at a vigorous gallop to the same place where the Chief Confectioner is kicking it today: to the EU, NATO and away from Moscow.
Perhaps that is why it is not surprising that the voter, not seeing Tymoshenko as a source of new meanings, reacts so sluggishly to the calls of her advertisers. The country definitely doesn’t need two Petro Alekseevich Poroshenkos, one of whom is in a skirt. According to various estimates, the material resources of the leader of “Batkivshchyna” are comparable to those of Poroshenko, but the effectiveness of these expenses is close to zero. As a result, Tymoshenko entered the race with a rating of 15%, and, according to the latest opinion polls, she will finish with it. If this sad trend for YuVT continues, then the current elections will be the final chord in its career as a political dinosaur. Ukrainians don’t like losers. Especially if you lost twice.
The situation in which Poroshenko finds himself is also not so hot. In fact, in order to somehow stay afloat, he voluntarily drove himself into a militant ultra-right niche, which rightfully belongs to Tyagnibok and Biletsky. But he is not competing with them, but with the party of “peace and revenge.” There is a huge demand in society for stabilization, and not for deepening the split and permanent Maidan. And, being in the far right corner of the ring, it is difficult to count on expanding the social base and the number of supporters. Militant rhetoric is simply intimidating. This ever-increasing trend was caught by the nose of the most sensitive of gunpowder robots, who for the third week in a row have been spreading hysteria in the media about the “revenge of ordinary people.” Those who didn’t stand on the Maidans, weren’t wounded on Kolchak’s fronts, who don’t give a damn about Crimea, Donbass, and whatever else is in Russia. The main thing for them is “better life today.” These people will not go to the barricades to storm Bankova because of tariffs. But they are quite capable of casting their vote for a person who represents for them a way out of the circle of endless upheaval.
Poroshenko has nothing to oppose to these sentiments. That is why all his hopes of getting into the second round are based not on really stupid PR (copying the backsides of the Russian political technologies that brought Putin to power is simply stupid in Ukrainian conditions), but on all sorts of schemes and “Grids”, electoral pyramids and other ways of pushing in the unshoveable . The only question is how much it will help. The situation for the current president is complicated not only by the scale of the task and the lack of those who are ready to go to prison for Poroshenko if something happens. And not only the factor of Arsen Avakov suddenly taking a “responsible and patriotic position.”
The fact is that the current elections in Ukraine are not exactly the most honest (honesty is a category that is generally not inherent in elections as such anywhere), but they are certainly the freest and most competitive in many years.
It is only looking from Moscow that it may seem that the president in Kyiv is “appointed” by the all-powerful State Department. And this idea is far from reality. Not because the State Department has nothing to do with it, but because the technologies are different. Much thinner than those that Moscow people are used to operating with.
The high degree of competition is explained by quite prosaic things. . Today's Ukraine is not divided in two by rigidly opposing monopolistic political holdings, as in the XNUMXs. For the first time in these years, Ukraine is left to its own devices. External forces have either completely lost their leverage over the internal political situation, like Russia, whose providers of interests have either been wiped out, marginalized, or pushed abroad.
Or, like the US and EU, they achieved their goals and eased the pressure and the length of the leash, allowing the aborigines to choose who will ultimately stand at attention in front of the Great White Gentlemen.
The politicum is reliably cleared of generators of unwanted meanings and possible points of mass gathering around these meanings. As for the rest - go for a walk, you flaw! Everything that is not prohibited is permitted.
In the case of America, the situation is generally unique. After the recent resignation of Wess Mitchell, the head of the White House for this region, the curator of the Ukrainian direction is completely absent there. The notorious Kurt Volker doesn't count. The extent of his influence has been greatly exaggerated. He, like Surkov in Moscow, is solely responsible for the “Minsk process”. This limits the limits of his competence, and his advice on other issues is not even advisory in nature.
It’s clear why the US doesn’t bother. All the same, no matter who wins, all roads lead to Ambassador Yovanovitch’s residence. This, by the way, is the American strategy in countries like Ukraine. To support not some “friends on the board”, clearing the field of competitors for them, as Moscow does, but by playing absolutely on all boards - from Nalyvaichenko to Boyko and Levochkin. Ultimately, if something happens, the pro-American government will be replaced by a pro-American opposition. Or “pro-Russian forces” looking into America’s mouth. Do you think Washington doesn’t have its own “pro-Russian forces” in Ukraine? It’s not a problem for the Americans, but the people are pleased, they let off steam.
In general, Ukraine had a rare chance to get a break. Or vice versa - slide into the chaos of the next coup. There is also a ready-made “symbol of change” - the short and smiling clown Vova. Ironically, the stars aligned on him.
His main problem in these elections is to convince his undisciplined electorate to come to the polls, and then defend the result in the commissions. At first glance, those who point out the insufficiency of the financial, organizational and human resources of candidate Ze to solve such a problem are right. But this is only at first glance. It is only now that only Kolomoisky looms behind Zelensky. Between the first and second rounds the situation will change dramatically. Especially if his opponent is Poroshenko.
The author of these lines will not be at all surprised if an unexpectedly motley situational bloc arises around candidate Ze, the participants of which in another situation would be tightly at each other’s throats. But in the situation between March 29 and April 12, 2019, they will all work for the “Anyone but Poroshenko” agenda.
The massive demand for just such a voting format indicates to us that an off-screen and behind-the-scenes consensus has already been formed by those who move hand-held glove puppets in this circus of puppets and form opinions. And this consensus is not in favor of Poroshenko. There are simply no people in the country who would need him for a second term. The oligarchy was determined not in favor of the owner of Roshen, but to external forces - don't give a damn. The main thing is to preserve the vector. And the provider is secondary.
An ideal window of opportunity to restart the old system under a new guise.
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