Why Zelensky is hiding under the mask of Lukashenko
Very interesting data from a joint survey of the Ilk Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the sociological service of the Razumkov Center were published in Kyiv. 60,5% of Ukrainians believe in the success of reforms in the country. The number of skeptics is at a record low – only 11% do not believe at all.
This is the first time such faith in the success of reforms has appeared - in recent years, pessimists have prevailed. Now, voters of almost all political forces that have a chance to enter the Verkhovna Rada believe in the success of reforms, the only exception is voters of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, among whom the majority (58%) do not believe in the success of reforms, representatives comment on these data sociological offices.
The most optimistic voters of the Servant of the People party, among whom 52% are confident that Ukraine will cope with problems in the coming years, voters of other parties still rely on a more distant future, sociologists say.
Among politicians, Ukrainians place their greatest hopes in implementing reforms on President Vladimir Zelensky. 61% of citizens trust him. The credibility of the future Rada and government is an order of magnitude more modest, but still looks fantastic for the Ukrainian realities of the last 27 years: 46% and 42%, respectively.
From a formal point of view, such exorbitant indicators of trust and hope should please, and not stress. For the first time in many years, Ukrainians, even if only on a psychological level, have emerged from the pit of total hopelessness, and social pessimism has given way to optimism.
However, this also involves a gigantic risk. It’s scary to even imagine the level of disappointment and hatred towards Zelensky if he does not live up to these expectations. Which, as we understand, will be very difficult to justify in the current conditions. Moreover, the level of hatred will be equal to the level of present love.
Finally, it should be alarming that the current faith is actually blind. People believed in something ephemeral, moreover, in credit. It would be interesting to ask about the content and main parameters of the reforms in which the majority of Ukrainians believed. Unfortunately, sociologists did not conduct such a survey, and the president’s team continues to get off with general phrases, prudently postponing the “moment of truth” until later - after the elections, when it will no longer be possible to backtrack and say that we wanted something completely different. And all that remains is, gritting your teeth, to console yourself with classical wisdom about the eyes that have been looked after and bathed.
In particular, the declared readiness of the presidential party to launch a full-fledged agricultural land market through the new parliament is alarming. On the one hand, this can attract billions of dollars into the economy, on the other hand, it will lead to the ruin of many small farmers and shareholders, and will actually legalize dependence on foreign financial capital - and Ukrainian landlords have no one else to lend against land. In the long term, this will lead to a sharp destabilization of the social situation in rural areas.
Equally frightening are the intentions voiced by one of the ideologists of Servant of the People to “lighten” the Constitution from the social guarantees enshrined in it. The “big privatization” of state assets promised to Zelensky’s Eurobankers does not inspire optimism either, because experience shows that privatization is always accompanied by staff optimization, mass layoffs of workers, ridding enterprises of “non-core” social assets and liabilities and the elimination of social guarantees.
And in general, the declared ideology of libertarianism may be good, but only for small American towns with a self-employed majority. For Ukrainians who grew up in conditions of traditional state paternalism, this will become the second edition of “shock therapy” of the early 90s.
At the same time, speaking purely theoretically, failure of reforms and disappointment are not so inevitable. It depends on what kind of reforms to carry out. There are options in which, on the contrary, the authorities will be praised and ratings will grow.
In this regard, it is noteworthy how Zelensky, who went on a tour of the regions, instead of the expected role of the “Ukrainian Macron”, is actively taking on the role of the young Lukashenko. Without mincing words, he gives instructions, scolds the local authorities, dismisses governors, their deputies, customs officers and prosecutors right at meetings, expels the local activist “robber” from meetings, promising to “call Bakanov about this devil”, asks the bureaucrats about the correspondence of their value smartphones to the size of the salary, and all this to the applause of the public.
Zelensky’s opponents are already strongly criticizing this, as it seems to them, “inappropriate” role for the president. They say he disgraces the country and is rude. But this criticism, like shooting sparrows from a cannon, does not achieve its goal. And the critics are terribly far from the people and simply do not understand the reasons why politicians become mega-popular in post-Soviet Palestines. So in the case of Zelensky, what is most important? People like it. And he will survive the lamentations of critics.
However, this “game of Lukashenko” is only effective if it is backed by a paternalistic policy. Can Zelensky pursue a policy, for example, of new industrialization of the country or stimulating domestic demand?
Even if he wants to, it is highly doubtful with the available tools and advisers who recommend going with the flow indicated by the IMF.
And he himself, it seems, adopts from Lukashenko only the external manner of self-presentation, and not economic views. Zelensky voiced his own views at a meeting with big business, where he announced that the state is not a competitor to business, but a service that creates conditions for its work. In this model, there is no place for a strong and competitive public sector, which means that getting rid of “non-core assets” by selling them is inevitable. And in general, in contrast to his zeal for the interests of employers, the new president’s meetings with trade unions have not yet been heard of.
Lukashenko’s mask cannot long cover the reduction of social programs, the elimination of benefits and plans for the sale of land. In this case, instead of the “Ukrainian Lukashenko”, we get exactly the same “Ukrainian Macron” that the Ukrainian “young reformers”, disappointed by Poroshenko’s corruption, had been waiting for in the person of Zelensky.
In general, as long as the current uncertainty remains in the vector of the socio-economic policy of the current government, Zelensky can play Lukashenko, which only strengthens his image and increases his rating. After all, people love Lukashenko not only in his own country, but also in Ukraine, where, according to opinion polls, he is the second most popular politician after Zelensky, if you include the names of leaders of foreign powers in the questionnaire.
While Macron can only boast of a colossal anti-rating. Hundreds of thousands of French people have been taking very non-peaceful actions against his anti-social policies for many months now.
So, if we proceed from the interests of ratings and preserving people’s love, then in any case it is better to be a young Lukashenko than a Macron of any age.
And what Zelensky should be afraid of is not that he is cosplaying Lukashenko, but that in a year or two, as a result of the announced neoliberal policies, he will actually become their own Macron for Ukrainians. With similar protest consequences that will not take long to arrive.
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