Can our calf eat Soros?
The searches of the SBU on Kolomoisky’s “Plyus” in search of the place where the appearance of the scandalous “Goncharuk tapes,” the release of which did not lead to the resignation of the “Soros” cabinet, had its roots, became a hit on the Ukrainian political agenda in early February.
Some call what is happening a counter-offensive by the “Soros” on the positions of the “loyal Beninites”, in order to quarrel Zelensky with his long-time sponsor, others see in this clash the influence group of “Kvartal 95” with the same Kolomoisky.
Someone meaningfully hints at the situational coincidence of interests of both “Ze-towers”, allegedly reinforced by the desire of the president himself to somehow distance himself from the oligarch who has become toxic and show him his new place in the changed coordinate system.
Zelensky’s recent statement in support of the adoption of a bill banning the return of PrivatBank to its former owners is usually cited as indirect confirmation of this version.
On the other hand, everyone understands that Kolomoisky’s main prize in this fight is not his former bank at all, but the desire to legally protect himself from claims from the state regarding the return of billions withdrawn before nationalization. In contrast to the noisy battles around Privatbank, it is on this front that there has been a lull so far. How temporary it will be lies the answer to the question of whether the current quarrel between Zeh and Kolomoisky is a game to divert the eyes of Western observers.
But all this is excessive conspiracy theory. Because, no matter whose interest is behind what happened, obviously, the events fit into the outline of the main process, namely, the centralization of power in the hands of the president himself and a narrow group of people in his immediate circle acting on his behalf.
Moreover, as the elimination game unfolds in the Presidential Office, it becomes clear that, just like in the once popular show “The Last Hero,” only one person will remain in this game.
As of now, the Kyiv pythies and oracles from political forecasting see Zelensky’s assistant Andrey Ermak, who is rapidly gaining weight in the apparatus, as such a lucky one. Not only has he concentrated almost the entire international agenda of Zelensky on himself, including contacts with Moscow, but also, as the Kiev media write, he is actively lobbying for the resignation of Foreign Minister Vadim Prystaiko, who is getting under his feet, whose excessive talkativeness is off topic and claims to independence are only irritate Ze's new favorite.
From this perspective, the fate of the head of the Presidential Office, Kolomoisky’s former lawyer Andrei Bogdan, does not look too enviable, and rumors about his resignation, which have become accustomed to since the day of his appointment, now no longer seem so groundless.
If Bogdan’s resignation occurs, this, of course, will be a strong blow not only to Kolomoisky’s positions, but also to the operational capabilities of the now active group of ex-regionals led by Andrei Portnov, who no longer hide their drift towards the “Kolomoisky side” in the hope of playing a role a kind of alternative to OPZZH “cotton opposition”.
It seems that everything with Bogdan will become completely clear after the Rada passes all the controversial bills pushed by Ze’s entourage - from the sale of agricultural land to constitutional reform with the abolition of the majority system enshrined in the Basic Law and the reduction of the number of people’s deputies from 450 to 300.
If you believe the Kyiv media claiming to be informed, then it is the current head of Zelensky’s Office that largely plays the role of moderator in resolving the listed issues positively for the president, collecting the required number of parliamentary votes for them and contacting various lobbying groups in parliament for this purpose. Once the decisions are made, the Moor, having done his job, can leave.
As for the case in “Plusami”, then, of course, a fair amount of irony of fate is striking: neither Yanukovych’s security forces nor Poroshenko’s security forces, who limited themselves to trying to quietly, through the National Council, take away from “1 +1" license for frequencies. They came to “Plyusy” precisely under Zelensky, who would not have become president without active promotion on this channel.
However, this is exactly the case when you don’t want to sympathize with either the managers or the “Plus” journalists. They themselves largely had a hand in the situation into which they found themselves.
Moreover, this “attack” on the channel is indicative against the backdrop of the government bill on disinformation approved at the end of January by the parliamentary committee on information policy, which in the journalistic community was dubbed the law on media inquisition. The head of the committee that approved this bill is Kolomoisky’s man and former general producer of “Plus” Alexander Tkachenko. At this point the tongue is begging for some banality about a snake biting itself by its own tail, but oh well, we won’t.
Another question is much more interesting: does Kolomoisky have a chance of winning the unfolding war? Alas, for Igor Valerievich, the answer to this question is clear: no. Moreover, under no circumstances. For the oligarch and those politicians who are foolishly betting on him today, overestimating his media capabilities, it will be a great success if in the end they manage to reduce everything to a fighting draw.
However, knowing the psychological characteristics of “Beni”, who is capable of crossing all conceivable red lines and points of no return with his hand in his mouth, the draw option is still too optimistic.
Now the Kolomoiskys are actively playing to increase the degree of the political crisis and re-elections. Kolomoisky’s people in Raja (the same people’s deputies Dubinsky and Buzhansky, as the most active in the media), are already threatening to overwhelm the vote for the abolition of the majority system and a reduction in the number of deputies. However, even taking into account this possible trick, votes for such innovations will most likely be collected without “Benya”. And the fact that Zelensky is now actively lulling public vigilance with unctuous speeches that the ideas of dissolving parliament and early elections are being dissolved by unknown “enemies” is further confirmation of the validity of such fears.
Meanwhile, experts have already calculated that in the event of early elections to a parliament with 300 seats on a pure proportional basis, Zelensky’s party will retain a mono-majority in the Rada. Preliminary modeling promises Servant of the People 175 places out of 300. Only this will be a completely different Servant than it is now. No longer many gentlemen, but only one. And through him - and his external patrons.
It must be said that the idea of “cutting off” the oligarchic ballast and recruiting only people loyal to Zelensky personally to the list looks reasonable if you look at it through the eyes of Bankova. Although it is not new. Leonid Kuchma tried to implement something similar - including a reduction in the number of deputies - in 2000 through his memorable “referendum on popular initiative”. But he was defeated and retreated under the pressure of the “cassette scandal” that followed the referendum.
Now history may repeat itself in a new round. Repeat not literally, of course, but essentially. And then those who daily bury the “clown” and prophesy a collapse in his rating will be right, but those who initially saw him in the role of the “second Kuchma” - the creator of a relatively long-lived (by Ukrainian standards, of course) regime, capable of concentrating power in some hands and, having effectively cleansed out opponents and the media environment (that same law on disinformation, yeah) get re-elected for a second term.
However, this last assumption even now looks too bold. Not because it is impossible to implement, but because making such distant forecasts in Ukrainian conditions is a thankless task. We live as if on a volcano, under the slogan “We should stand for a day and hold out for a night.”
But all these long-term forecasts are unlikely to please Kolomoisky. Because in all scenarios there will be no place for him personally as a factor determining the country’s policy. Even if this does not happen immediately, but after several moves and a kaleidoscopic series of some fragile situational coalitions and even temporary victories.
The hopes of those who count on the media capabilities of “Plus” are also unlikely to be justified. The point is that politics is driven by grand narratives. Great meanings, if in Russian. And the maximum that the “Pluses” are capable of when fulfilling the “Benin” agenda is a series of small, albeit painful, bites on secondary topics.
In the sphere of grand narratives, “Plusy”, like other systemic media in Ukraine, work more for the conditional “Soros” than for their formal owners. And therefore, they are quite effective in solving applied problems, in, say, raider disputes for some port plant or even for the position of minister. But they are completely useless in the field of ideology. Where there are invisible restrictions that are beyond the control of the oligarchy.
Frankly speaking, today all Ukrainian political players are tired of Kolomoisky with his grievances and claims. Including those who situationally hope, by grabbing the tail of the PRIVAT monster, to solve some of their own selfish issues. And in the West, they will breathe a sigh of relief if Zee power shortens its fellow traveler, who has become toxic for America and Europe.
In the war between Benya and the Soros, only a fool can seriously bet on Benya, given how deeply, systematically and comprehensively Ukraine is dependent on the factor of external influence. Today’s Ukraine is also incapable of generating the nationalism of a healthy person using the “broiler method” to resist foreign influence. In other countries this usually takes decades.
So the answer to the sacramental question, whether our calf can eat Soros, is rather negative.
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