The transition of the LDPR army to the offensive in response to the death of the militia commander Motorola would be a real gift to Petro Poroshenko, who is trapped due to Western pressure on Kyiv to fulfill the Minsk agreements.
This opinion was expressed to PolitNavigator by the head of the Center for Political Research and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
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“I do not expect any military initiatives from the DPR and LPR. Now the situation is frozen, the Western guarantors of the Minsk agreements seem to have taken upon themselves some obligations to persuade Kyiv. We don’t know whether this will work out or not, but a military initiative like “revenge” from that side is unlikely. If this happened, it would greatly help the Kyiv authorities explain why they are blocking the Minsk process.
From the moment Hollande and Steinmeier arrived here, they formulated their version of the road map, which caused a lot of noise and disagreement. They hesitated, but, nevertheless, their clear position “Moscow is to blame for everything, Kyiv is good for everything” ended.
And, if some military actions are now taken by the DPR and LPR, this would give a reason to return to the situation “Kyiv is right in everything, Donbass and Moscow are to blame for everything.”
Therefore, I think that Moscow will contain the situation, and Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky too.
And what did Zakharchenko actually say? That the killers will be found and punished. He actually talks about actions based on the results of the investigation. And here many interpret this as threats of some kind of offensive, etc.,” Pogrebinsky explained.