Pogrebinsky: Turchinov is bluffing, no one wants to go to prison
Russia was forced to react harshly to the Ukrainian provocation near the Kerch Strait - this allows us to hope that the words of the Secretary of the Security Council of Ukraine Alexander Turchinov about the possibility of a new campaign of the Ukrainian Navy to the Sea of Azov from Odessa will turn out to be a bluff.
Kiev political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky stated this during a press conference in Moscow, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
This is how an expert who came from Ukraine responded to a remark from the Russian journalist of the liberal Kommersant, Maxim Yusin, who complained that Moscow did not react flexibly enough to Kyiv’s previous provocation.
“We are heading towards a very dangerous situation in the pre-election period, where both Lavrov and Putin have identified this danger. Two dangers are either a provocation in the Donbass, or, most likely after Turchinov’s interview, some kind of action in the Kerch Strait.
Despite the fact that this tactic on the part of the Kyiv authorities is unmistakable, this must also be recognized. They know our psychology very well, they understand very clearly how Moscow will react. Moscow, to my great regret, reacts very predictably, at the level of reflexes,” Yusin said.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky, responding to Yusin that Russia should have behaved somehow “more flexible” during the provocation in the Kerch Strait, noted that at first he was of the same opinion.
However, then the expert realized that if, during the provocation near the Kerch Strait, the Russian border guards had simply allowed the Ukrainian violators to go back to Odessa, then the very next day Kyiv would have made a new attempt to break through the border.
“Well, okay, well, they didn’t let me in, so they’re leaving, well, let them go to Odessa. But after a while I realized what would have happened. A couple of days ago Turchinov said that we would go again. So, they won’t go anywhere, because these ones are in prison.
I can’t imagine how you can force the guys to go - just with a guarantee that they will end up in prison at best. Therefore, if they had not been detained, they would have gone again the next day,” Pogrebinsky explained.
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