“The campaign from Donetsk to liberate Odessa will result in our losses in 4/5”

Vladimir Zelensky still has a chance to change Ukraine and end the war. To do this, he needs a power resource, which can be provided by both internal allies and external players. If Zelensky does not do this, then in the near future he will be removed from power, and in the long term he will take his place in the dock along with Petro Poroshenko.

Alexander Kazakov, ex-adviser of the deceased head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko, told the ever-arguing and objecting PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov whether Zelensky has a desire to change something, whether it is possible to change the Nazi regime in Kiev, and why this whole circus cannot simply be dispersed. .

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

Valentin Filippov:  Over the past weeks, we have heard a lot of unflattering comments about the new Ukrainian President Zelensky. But there are people who are willing to give him a chance, still willing to give him a chance. One of these people is our guest today – Alexander Kazakov.

Alexander Kazakov: Hello. As I understand it, such a preview sounds all the more strange because the adviser to the tragically deceased Alexander Zakharchenko is a person who is ready to give Zelensky a chance.

Valentin Filippov: Well, I don't know what kind of chance it is. Maybe this is a chance to run through a minefield.

Alexander Kazakov: No, for this we have other characters. There are many of them, but we also have a lot of minefields, including, unfortunately, unmapped ones, so there is enough for everyone.

Valentin Filippov: And we invite this entire company across the demarcation line. At night.

Alexander Kazakov: It would be possible to invite the entire company to negotiate on our side on foot. 

Valentin Filippov: I remember how Shamanov once spoke about Basayev when the “Czechs” were blown up in a minefield. “A heroic FSB officer sold Basayev a map for $100 to follow.”

Alexander Kazakov: By the way, recently, according to various estimates, but close to reality, more than half of the soldiers who died on that side were blown up by mines. Moreover, not only on ours, but also on our own, since, and this, unfortunately, is a well-known fact, more than half of the minefields do not have maps.

The reality is that the war, firstly, is civil, and secondly, in the fourteenth year (less than in the fifteenth year), when there was already a clear localization in Debaltsevo, there were certain fronts, but in the fourteenth year there were no fronts: all military formations walked back and forth, came in, walked around each other, sometimes without noticing, from the rear. There was such a Brownian movement, and when we stayed for the night, in the parking lot, everything around was mined, then shelling - they left, leaving everything.

In XNUMX, if my memory serves me right, three combine tractor drivers were blown up in the fields. It’s just that no one imagined that there might be mines there - this was our deep rear.

But now this is the front line, and then there were stripes, but even now the militants of the National Battalions are especially distinguished by this - they do not bother themselves with such details as maps of minefields. They know that we are standing here, they are standing there, they set them up so that our scouts would not get them, and then they were rotated, and they left. So laughter is laughter, but here there is laughter through tears.

Valentin Filippov: Let's get back to serious things. You decided to give Zelensky a chance. In general, does he have any powers, capabilities and resources to try to use the chance that Alexander Kazakov gave him?

Alexander Kazakov: In any case, Zelensky is not Poroshenko. It's like a physiological fact.

Valentin Filippov: It’s much easier to hit Poroshenko with a grenade launcher.

Alexander Kazakov: For now, yes. But, as I understand it, he will now begin to lose weight. Therefore, based on this physiological fact, it is possible to draw a line of their political difference.

On the one hand, even Putin reproaches Zelensky that he said some things before the elections and the opposite ones after the elections, and some he still hasn’t said after the elections.

For me, this is not surprising, simply because he spoke during the election campaign about a special status. I saw such things perfectly well, that he simply does not understand what he is talking about, and, moreover, when he spoke about a special status for Donbass, for him this topic existed completely separately.

Here we have Donbass, let’s give it a special one... No, it’s not necessary, why, considering the voters there and so on…. He did not read the Minsk agreements.

Valentin Filippov: Well, there's only one page.

Alexander Kazakov: I am absolutely sure that Zelensky did not even follow the political agenda during these 5 years.

Valentin Filippov: KVN members always follow the political agenda, because they constantly joke about this topic. He wrote out, worked, studied the roles, he played the role of Zakharchenko, by the way. He was aware, because in order to joke about something, you need to know something about it.

Alexander Kazakov: Here, Valentin, I will remind you of Putin’s words at the St. Petersburg forum and will not agree with him. Well, more precisely, I problematize his position when he said that Zelensky was a good professional in his past life, that is, a good actor.

I can give a specific example from Soviet cinema: Innokenty Smoktunovsky, who played Hamlet, before going on the set, read a bunch of literature about that time; other actors who were offered historical roles, or, for example, the role of a miner, they only read the script , they do not immerse themselves, although this is exactly the Soviet school - immersion in work.

Valentin Filippov: Don't confuse it with the stage.

Alexander Kazakov: They are limited to the script and the director's explanations. And what it really means is that what they say on stage is not particularly important to them, they need to carry out the director’s command.

So I do not rule out that Zelensky played roles within the framework of a given script. Of course, he watched TV, but I don’t know what channels and what programs, so what’s important here is, by the way he talks about it, by the context, by his wording - I see that he was not in the subject.

Now, as I understand it, he is starting to get into the topic, not only the topic of Donbass, he is also starting to get into the others. I think that over time he will turn more and more into “Sad Pierrot”, because the information that he is now beginning to receive cannot please him. She cannot please any normal person.

But here it turned out to be a completely understandable transition to say a few words, as the elected president, he had a week. After this, a new election cycle began.

So based on the fact that before he became president, he was really out of the loop. In fact, from the point of view of Donbass, I don’t care whether he is for status or not for status – what difference does it make? In general, I proceed from the position that Zakharchenko has repeatedly declared, may he rest in heaven, that the Minsk agreements are only the first stage, or, more precisely, preparation for real negotiations. That is, this is not something that we did and relaxed, but this is a necessary stage to stop the war.

Valentin Filippov: I, too, may not be entirely on topic, but from my point of view, in general, the main thing is to stop the war. Everyone said that Donbass could become Transnistria. Sometimes it seems to me…

Alexander Kazakov: Maybe. It may turn out to be Transnistria.

Valentin Filippov: But Transnistria... I look at Moldova and Transnistria - they live quite peacefully with each other. The people are practically integrated into each other. That is, everything is fine with them, by and large. Compared to what is happening in Ukraine, everything is fine with them. They have a wonderful relationship, but sometimes they fight, yes, these recognized ones, these unrecognized ones.

Alexander Kazakov: The most important difference is that they do not expect military escalation every day.

Valentin Filippov: It doesn’t even occur to them that there could be some kind of military escalation. They serve in each other's army.

Alexander Kazakov: They trade, they travel, yes...

Valentin Filippov: They trade, they travel, they pass each other’s goods through them absolutely without any problems...

Alexander Kazakov: No, of course there are problems there, but they...

Valentin Filippov: Compared to what is happening in Ukraine. Compared to Ukraine, there is generally peace, tranquility and a single, indivisible Moldova.

Alexander Kazakov: Compared to Ukraine, yes. But, let’s say, even in comparison with Nagorno-Karabakh, in Transnistria there is peace and quiet and God’s grace, because in Karabakh there is also an escalation regularly every 2-3 months, even to the point of artillery, we just write less about it.

Valentin Filippov: From my point of view, if we could really stop shooting, really withdraw the armed forces to some distance from each other and simplify all the procedures for crossing the contact line, then, in general, everything would work out. We could have left it all like that, said: “Guys, we’ll leave it for 20 years.”

Alexander Kazakov: You can’t leave everything behind.

Valentin Filippov: Well, figuratively.

Alexander Kazakov: Even figuratively. Look, Valentin, what we have off the hook: firstly, the confrontation in Donbass is currently acute, it was acute yesterday and the day before yesterday. I mean fire contact, I mean casualties on both sides, including, unfortunately, casualties among civilians, only on our side.

This situation has never stopped since May, well, in Donetsk since May, and in the Donetsk region since April of the fourteenth year. It never stopped. That's why we have a hot conflict now. And it is understandably more difficult to stop a hot conflict than a sluggish conflict.

Now let's figure out what “stop the war” means. The most important thing was Zakharchenko’s achievement, for example, which was noted by everyone in Donetsk, in Russia, and in the West. In Ukraine, no, because they were generally in a crazy state and didn’t notice anything. By the end of the fourteenth year, Zakharchenko controlled his armed forces. That is, if Zakharchenko gave an order, then this order, as quickly as technical capabilities provided, spread vertically from top to bottom to the rank and file, and most importantly, it was carried out.

Now let's move to today. Let’s take this example, I already wrote about it somewhere: Zelensky cannot help but understand that the shelling of a Donetsk mosque on a Muslim holiday is a provocation against him. This had nothing to do with Donbass. This mosque has always been in the affected area. I drove past it several times because it’s not far from the airport, actually. That is, when you go down, then to the right you immediately go to the Iversky Monastery, which was smashed by the Nazis in XNUMX, and to the left you can see the mosque, even when the greenery is full. She was always in the killing zone.

Valentin Filippov: Logically, this is a provocation against the President of Ukraine?

Alexander Kazakov: Quite right.

Valentin Filippov: So, “Putin bombed.”

Alexander Kazakov: No, just a second. And he cannot help but understand this. Now let’s carry out the operation of relocation of souls - we’ll move into Zelensky’s head with you.

Valentin Filippov: So little space.

Alexander Kazakov: Let's agree. So, the first desire, natural, is to punish the one who staged a provocation against him, and suppose - I don’t know how it really happened, Zelensky gives the order to arrest to hell this idiot who gave the order, right there, on ground, by shelling of the mosque...

Valentin Filippov: And it turned out to be Koshevoy - bald.

Alexander Kazakov: And now the question arises: can he really arrest him? No. He physically cannot do this. If he gives such an order, the order will not be carried out. Because those who are on the front line will carry out the simplest operations and say: “Yes, there is. We'll go and arrest him now. Oh, you know, he’s not here, he’s gone somewhere.”

The order will not be carried out, because on the demarcation line, especially where the national battalions are stationed, and in fact, we know all the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including the one on which there is an order from Zakharchenko that has not been canceled - not to take anyone prisoner from it, for what they did in Donbass... We know the mood there. They will cover him, they will hide him, they will give him money to leave, the order will not be carried out.

Since Zelensky himself most likely understands this, that is, at the moment he has, and it’s good - so he gives the order - to arrest Svinarchuk...

Valentin Filippov: OK then…

Alexander Kazakov: Arrest Svinarchuk.

Valentin Filippov: Why then do we give him a chance if he is such a nobody?

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, let's not rush.

Valentin Filippov: Let's just watch, enjoy, laugh.

Alexander Kazakov: Let's take our time. So, look, in order to be able to implement his own orders, Zelensky currently lacks many things. But the main one is that he has no power resource. There is not a single unit, guardsmen, assassins, anyone, special forces, there, no matter who, to whom he will give the command to ensure the execution of the order. They will come and arrest you, regardless of their faces. He doesn't have such a resource.

If he gives the order to arrest Svinarchuk tomorrow, Svinarchuk will not be arrested. Because neither the Ministry of Internal Affairs, nor the SBU, nor the army are currently subordinate to Zelensky. Moreover, they all resist Zelensky.

What is the difference, say, between Zelensky and Trump in this sense? The administrative vertical, the FBI, but not the CIA or the army, opposed Trump. Trump immediately had a resource. When attempts began to organize Maidans against him there, he found a resource without any problems to wipe them off the face of the earth.

Zelensky, in principle, does not have it. By the way, I do not exclude this assumption, I do not exclude that negotiations are currently underway with Avakov about providing such a resource. Maybe that’s why there are so many facts...

Valentin Filippov: Do you think that Zelensky is generally concerned about this problem?

Alexander Kazakov: Yes, she worries him. Because…

Valentin Filippov: What for?

Alexander Kazakov: I'll tell you what for. Otherwise, he will not just be an under-president, he will be a patient, he will be for, if he’s lucky, then five years, and maybe several months, a person about whom everyone will wipe their feet and do it publicly.

Based on what is known about Zelensky, I don’t think that he is a person completely without self-love and without self-respect. And to let him so easily wipe his feet on himself every day... I don’t think it’s pleasant for him as a person.

And as for the president, and those people who combine around him... And now we already know that there are several teams around him, and competing teams, and often contradictory to each other, there is a kind of fight for Zelensky, but it’s really theirs internal matter. Here. But as far as I know, as far as peace is concerned, they have no contradictions regarding war.

Valentin Filippov: Here is Koshevoy's interview. He began to talk in a rather rude manner, posing as a punk, a gopnik. And he said that Vova is now involved in sports, he will have time, a meeting with Putin, and he will punch Putin in the face. Yes. And “we will record this on a smartphone, post it on YouTube, and there will be millions, hundreds of millions of views.” Here.

Not a bad idea actually. For a performer, for a clown, this is wonderful. Meet, come to the Normandy format, Putin will be there, and try to at least hit Putin. Yes? So that this is recorded on the smartphone.

Alexander Kazakov: It won’t work...

Valentin Filippov: Another variant. Listen...

Alexander Kazakov: This is a bad idea for a clown.

Valentin Filippov: Fine. We know the movie "Servant of the People", right? This series. What is he doing there, based on this series? He comes to the Verkhovna Rada, takes out two machine guns and starts shooting.

Alexander Kazakov: No, he’s dreaming.

Valentin Filippov: Oh, is he dreaming? But why not?

Alexander Kazakov: Maybe he’s dreaming like that now. We don't know.

Valentin Filippov: In fact, what’s it like... “The boy was on his way to success.” Here he is - a clown who has reached the maximum clown position - “President of Ukraine”. Now, if he really is now... well, fine, well, they’ll put him in jail. On the one hand, imagine, he will fire at the Verkhovna Rada with a machine gun and kill several people there, several deputies. Yes? In theory, it seems like he should be imprisoned, but he is the president, his immunity should be removed. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, the people will support. People will start collecting signatures so as not to bring Vladimir Zelensky to justice... This would be such an unexpected thing. Do you understand?

Alexander Kazakov: As I understand it, Valentin, the figure of Zelensky provokes you to be creative.

Valentin Filippov: He is a man himself, in general, from a creative environment, from KVN members. But I won’t forgive him anything and never will, just as I won’t forgive them all. But at the same time, why don’t we look this way? You are all wondering how he will find some security officials...

Alexander Kazakov: No, no, Valentin, just the opposite...

Valentin Filippov: This is a clown. He doesn't need security forces.

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, just the opposite. The majority argue exactly as you do – they are both creative and kidding. And a much smaller number of people, perhaps simply more noticeable, are trying to reason seriously.

Well, look, today we seem to be talking in different registers, you are joking, but I am talking seriously. But let's, in fact, you can talk seriously about jokes, or you can joke about serious things. Let me try to talk seriously about how and what you are making fun of.

This is your position - that the clown became president. And I really don’t give a damn who he was before. Loader, artist, singer. What's the difference? Deputy, minister, oligarch. What difference does it make to me? In this case, I look at the situation through statuses. Because politics is not a DC stage. Politics is the interaction of statuses.

He has the status of President of Ukraine, and therefore I am interested in him in this capacity. Who he was before is reflected in his current behavior, in his actions, but I don’t care. I perceive him at the current moment as the current president of Ukraine. He interests me in this capacity.

And in this capacity, for now, here I agree with Putin, I do not agree with him that Zelensky is a good actor, but I agree with Putin that he has not yet said or done anything that irrevocably crosses him out from a possible dialogue.

He hasn't said or done anything like that yet. Yes, we are on an emotional, as it were, background and in a propaganda, in the best sense of the word, in a propaganda march of this kind, we are now presenting to it the blood of those people who suffered after the inauguration. But in fact, we understand perfectly well that there is no front line before or after the inauguration. On the front line, the death of Zakharchenko, when it did not lead to a sharp escalation on our part, and then the appearance of Pushilin did not affect the situation in any way.

And therefore, even such events, and even more so, there, before the inauguration, after, elections to the Verkhovna Rada... The front lives its own life. And that's why I don't care who he was.

But now, at the current moment, since he is not tied by blood, and was not a participant in that mutual responsibility that was tied to the entire previous party, and now it is all sitting in its place, all these Nazis, there, Parubi, there , ministers, most of the deputies, they are all in their places now.

When we say that this is just an election campaign, we are lying. This is not an election campaign for them. Like Poroshenko, the elections were not an election fight, but a struggle for life or death. For them, they perceive it the same way. Therefore, one should not be surprised that they openly, brazenly, and defiantly sabotage the decision of their president. They can't do it any other way. They are fighting, and they are not fighting for power, they are fighting for the life, freedom and well-being of themselves, their children and grandchildren.

Although Bandera’s followers need to be imprisoned along with their children and grandchildren. There is no need to make such a mistake a second time, as Khrushchev did in his time. And for life, by the way, without the right to parole.

So, at the moment, the window of opportunity for Zelensky is open. Putin said this, and I agree with him. He confirmed this, by the way, in an interview with the Mir television company, once again confirming it. And I agree with him.

But now the question is different. Can Zelensky himself, in the combination that is now taking shape in Kyiv, take real power into his own hands? Today I don’t see such chances for him. Any power resource that he can obtain will be delegated to him, and accordingly will make him a debtor. The position of president is not the best position, so to speak.

If he takes the power resource from Avakov, well, really, with Avakov they have already played with two hands in the elections, and under the strict control of the Washington regional committee... With this, even now I... do not bother the Washington regional committee... Under Poroshenko, the Washington regional committee was perceived by me, for example, as the absolute evil in this story. But not now. Because now in Ukraine there must be a situation that will allow us to stop the war and, most importantly for me personally, so that Donbass will not be forced to capitulate.

And this situation is possible only on the condition that a full-fledged government sits in Kyiv, which is not responsible for the sins of its predecessors, that is, it is not the same power in essence, which has a free hand in order to negotiate and untie the knots. And this can really be ensured today by the Washington regional committee.

Valentin Filippov: Why do they need this?

Alexander Kazakov: Well, it's actually very simple here. The situation for Zelensky, and anyone else in his place, is in this sense hopeless. Without waging a struggle, not a war, I emphasize, but a struggle for the return of Donbass to Ukraine, any president in Kyiv is a political suicide bomber. He can't help but do this. Because otherwise...

The point is not that the Nazis will call him a capitulator, some kind of prisoner, no, that’s not the point... This applies to any other country, be it Sweden, Canada, the United States, Russia, Georgia... Well, it can’t now in The Georgian president will go to the elections in order to agree that South Ossetia and Abkhazia have left.

Valentin Filippov: You can disagree, but you don’t have to do anything stupid.

Alexander Kazakov: Moreover, he will promise to fight for the return of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. What he will do is another question. This comes later, after the elections. But he must promise it.

The same goes for Zelensky, and anyone else, even Ivanov, Petrov, Sidorov, in his place in Kyiv, will have to promise to fight for Donbass. God grant that during the march they will be able to put the story with Crimea out of the equation, and for now they won’t talk about it... because, well, it’s a mine that always explodes.

Therefore, this route is not closed for Zelensky now, but he is absolutely not ready to start moving along this route, precisely because he has no real power.

Now the question is - where can I get it? More precisely, how to take it? You can take it with someone's help. Help can be internal, it can be external.

Valentin Filippov: That is, the DPR is ready, you think, to place security forces at Zelensky’s disposal in order to restore order in Kyiv.

Alexander Kazakov: That is, you return me to the register of clowning. Let's. I will even support you and refer to the statement of Alexander Vladimirovich Zakharchenko, may God bless my memory, it was in 17, when he said that if some political force stages a coup in Ukraine, it will not be Bandera’s, and there will not be cope, then the DPR is ready to help. Zakharchenko said this.

So, we are returning from clownery to political reality.

Valentin Filippov: So it wasn't a clownery. I also meant that, in the end...

Alexander Kazakov: First of all, yes, we are ready. But in this case, in order to obtain a power resource from the DPR/LPR, Zelensky needs to do much more. This requires very big steps and there should be a lot of them. In the meantime, at the current moment, let's not guess what will happen next, literally today, literally today, who can help Zelensky so that he takes power into his own hands?

Firstly, these are internal players. But there are very few of them. If he tries to find such a resource in the army, it will actually lead to a split in the army. And the army will do something that it has not done since December 13 - the army will enter the political space. With unpredictable consequences.

Because now the army is in fact out of politics. It carries out the orders of politicians, but the army itself is outside politics. I'm not talking about the National Battalions, I'm talking about the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

If he tries to rely on part of the army, then the second part will come into conflict with this part. That is, it is unreasonable from the point of view of governing the country.

The second resource where you can get it is the SBU. At the moment, the SBU, as far as I know from my secret interlocutors in Kyiv, who, of course, I have, the SBU, they told me this back in 17, is an absolutely controlled structure. The only question is who is at the top of this structure and gives orders. Change these, there will be other orders, and another play will be performed. But this is a manageable structure. It is important.

But now she doesn't obey. Bakanov, with the rank of deputy, cannot do anything, because he simply will not be allowed into those offices where real decisions are made. It’s not that they will kick him out - no, they won’t risk it, of course, this is, well, a challenge to the president, why risk it, then in two days they will cut off his head, and not today, but this is through simple manipulations and other things.

He will be cut off from real decision-making levers, so for now, yes, he is there, but the SBU does not report to Zelensky now.

In the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Avakov is a person who has shown that he can negotiate, and the elections, it’s already common knowledge, the elections took place without fire and blood thanks to Avakov. In fact, Zelensky won largely thanks to Avakov. Avakov, of course, now has the right to demand some kind of payment for this.

But, if Zelensky or those next to him are smart people, and they are next to him, behave competently, then they will simply tell Avakov that it is too early to ask. That is, yes, I received a mandate, but I am not provided with anything, I will lose this mandate in 3 months, and all your bonuses will end up in the same cesspool as my mandate.

Therefore, Avakov can actually provide Zelensky with a power resource, special forces, for example, so that, now I’m not kidding, if Zelensky gives the command: “Okay, I’m dissolving the Verkhovna Rada,” and the special forces go to the Verkhovna Rada and say: “The guard is tired” , and simply does not allow them into the building of the Verkhovna Rada. This is not even very much beyond the boundaries of the legal field. On the border, but not even yet, because beyond the borders is the introduction of martial law.

And, by the way, this option remains with Zelensky, and the state of emergency, and then he receives direct command of the army, then you can use the army resource without splitting the army, without provoking civil war 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and a war of all against all.

They are opposed by the Nazis’ power resource, which is quite manageable: these are those who were under Avakov, and those who were under Poroshenko through the SBU, these are many people, well armed, who are actually spread throughout the entire territory of Ukraine, except ours. So this is not a joke at all. These are internal resources.

Let's look at the external ones: here, in fact, there are only two options - option one is the United States of America, option two is the Russian Federation. This is not even going into the register of clownery, because we know several countries on the globe that, when their leaders found themselves in a difficult situation, did not publicly turn to the Russian Federation for help. The Russian Federation, as it is called, provided security. Provides for 10 people, 100, 200, that’s how many you need.

What's happening now? Now a story is happening that has been repeated tens of thousands of times and in 99,9% of cases ended equally badly. This is when a new person tries to implement his ideas according to rules that were not written by him, but they were written so that he could not do anything.

Valentin Filippov: Does he actually want to do something, does he need it? Well, now he has taken full power, he has all the resources, why should he do anything? Well, I understand - getting rich, stealing something, helping Kolomoisky...

Alexander Kazakov: Answer me one question. Here is your personal opinion. Is Zelensky stupid or not?

Valentin Filippov: Well, a normal person...

Alexander Kazakov: Quite normal. You don't have to be a genius. If he is a normal person, not stupid, then even he himself cannot help but calculate not just the probabilities, but the obligatory scenario in case he doesn’t care. If he doesn’t care, it’s fun for him to be president, it’s fun for him to meet with journalists in the forest on ottomans and it’s all fun, and so on. If it’s just fun for him, then the following happens...

Valentin Filippov: Well, he will now create a parliamentary republic, he will be on ottomans, like Yushchenko met on ottomans. From time to time he will say: “It does not correspond to the spirit of the constitution,” and then go on to his own apiary.

Alexander Kazakov: What is the difference between Yushchenko and Zelensky? The one and most important thing?

Valentin Filippov: There is not enough dioxin in the blood.

Alexander Kazakov: This is not the most important thing. The most important thing is that Yushchenko was the president of a country that did not fight. And Zelensky is the president of a country that is now really at war every day and every night; it is at war right now, when we are talking to you. This is the main difference.

And therefore, here the scenario is calculated in an elementary way: if Zelensky is just having fun, then those forces that are tied in blood with all that it entails will very quickly, in a few months, bring the situation to real military action, large-scale, and at the same time Zelensky will be the president. And then he will sit on the bench of the future tribunal even ahead of Poroshenko.

And I don’t doubt for a second that he understands this perfectly. He does not want Poroshenko’s fate, but this is exactly what he will get, this will be provided to him. Because now, in fact, Zelensky’s vulnerability as a president is prohibitive.

A simple example, I hope that I will not suggest this idea to anyone, that they themselves know it - suddenly Zelensky today, tomorrow, in a week, in a month, after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, where he received at least a simple majority and reached an agreement with Tymoshenko and with the Opposition bloc, or the constitutional majority there, he suddenly really starts talking about peace negotiations?

What is the difference between today's Minsk and the peace negotiations - in Minsk they talk about anything except issues of war and peace, they do not have such a mandate. And then he says: “We are starting peace negotiations.”

That same evening, two dozen frostbitten Nazis on the front line are using a heavy machine gun to kill their own or their neighbors, preferably, of course, soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because this is a state to a greater extent than the Nazis, although they are also under the Ministry of Internal Affairs. They stupidly shoot them, then collect what is left of them, bring them to Kyiv and put them under the door on Bankova and say: “You, bitch, are having peace negotiations, but here are our brothers.”

Valentin Filippov: Well, they do it all the time. They do all this from the Maidan. They also carried this “heavenly hundred” back and forth – coffins around Kyiv. Well, this is their normal state, so what? The main thing is how to look at it.

Alexander Kazakov: How can you look at this? How might the President of Ukraine look at this? When the corpses of the murdered are placed under his door?

Valentin Filippov: "Those who drag the corpses of our “heroes” and throw them under the doors of Bankova - these people are, of course, looters, and they must be caught and imprisoned for huge sentences for mocking the most sacred.”

Alexander Kazakov: And now we are going back 5 minutes, and Zelensky today does not have the resource that will allow him to even detain them. And when they come, the National Corps will stand behind them - these are several hundred thugs armed to the teeth.

Valentin Filippov: And this man gives Zelensky a chance...

Alexander Kazakov: Where did we start? That he couldn't stop them. And of course, all of them should be punished for bullying. The rhetoric is correct, but what next? We are talking about consistency. There is nothing to neutralize even such a provocation. Therefore, we have at least outlined those who can help him provide a power resource, even the most incredible cases - the United States and the Russian Federation. Now to the question of whether anyone needs peace?

Valentin Filippov: Does anyone need it?

Alexander Kazakov: Well, look. This situation must be considered in each case with each player on two levels. Level one is a simple human level, level two is political, which never coincides with simple human and even sometimes with elementary common sense. For example, in Donbass.

Humanly speaking, all the residents of Donbass, all 4 million who are on our territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, of course, they all want the war to end. And only secondarily do they think about how and under what conditions.

But politicians first think on what conditions, and then whether to finish it or not. This has been the case for thousands of years of the development of human civilization. And therefore, when we talk about the political component even in Donbass, the situation does not look so clear.

Valentin Filippov:  It doesn’t look clear to me either. Okay, they’ve already forgotten about my native Odessa, I remember about Mariupol.

Oh, excuse me, but does Ukraine need peace? Here political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko says: “the main task of the Ukraine project is to fight with Russia and get money for it.” What, this project is no longer needed?

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, every state, especially one that is located at a crossroads of different roads and can trade with its very location, there is always the possibility of different projects ahead. The one you named is one of the projects that has been implemented over the past 5 years. But there are others.

Valentin Filippov: What others?

Firstly, Russia will not cooperate. Well, who will let her go? Well, here I am, for example, I am categorically against it. I believe that Ukraine should not be given gas. I believe that Ukraine should be put under blockade, and another fleet should be sent, so that they don’t get out of here, to Transnistria and generally land on the border with Poland - and set up a blockade for them there. Let them die there, just like that.

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, how many people should die? 20 million?

Valentin Filippov: Why 20 million? We will leave the gate, maybe they will come to us to eat. We will check documents, who we will feed and who we won’t.

Alexander Kazakov: And what will be in the documents? Citizen of Ukraine, and that’s it.

Valentin Filippov: Fingerprints and cross-examination.

Alexander Kazakov: It turns out something like this. Fingers and fingerprints are now taken from Donetsk residents, not Ukrainians, in order to issue a passport. There's fingerprinting and everything else.

Valentin Filippov: Well, they took it from me.

Alexander Kazakov: I understand, but these are isolated cases, this is a thin stream, but here we were talking about a full-flowing river. 3 million people. A thin stream. 50 people per day. Even 5000 a day. 5000 – okay, 500 a day, 3 million. But last time we already talked about this.

Valentin Filippov: They talked.

Alexander Kazakov: So, look. When you talk about Russia, about the “deep people”...

Valentin Filippov:  And the “deep state”...

Alexander Kazakov: In this case, about the “deep people”, about the silent Putin majority, which only sometimes speaks out, and then only within the framework of a social survey, then if we now move to Moscow and speak from this point of view, then we have two ways.

The first way is to escalate the conflict.

Valentin Filippov: Нравится.

Alexander Kazakov: Competent escalation, by someone else’s hands. With all subsequent actions as in Syria.

Valentin Filippov: Нравится.

Alexander Kazakov: The only difference is that, most likely, we are not ensuring the security of the current president, but a new one is being proposed. When the Nazis put up a sign, I liked the one they stuck to Bankovaya, “Governor of Little Russia”, the administration of the Governor of Little Russia, I liked the idea of ​​the Nazis, I thought - maybe the General Government, after all, is a fraternal people. And, accordingly, after the escalation of the conflict, a quick military solution to this issue.

Valentin Filippov: I like. Here is a simple scheme, with a minimum number of participants, without taking into account the fantasies of distant neighbors.

Alexander Kazakov: When we considered that it was very possible with the military, with professionals, highly qualified professionals, to march from Donetsk to liberate Odessa along the coast, then in any, most favorable scenarios, it turned out that, of course, we would take Odessa, but losses on our part would be four-fifths . Four-fifths. It was a conversation between professionals, I was just present there, I am not a professional. And when it turned out that as a result of such a campaign... And by the way, a realistic assessment said that along the way very few people would join our army. And four-fifths, Valentin, is an unacceptable loss.

Valentin Filippov: I know that.

Alexander Kazakov: And, among other things, we will not hold this Odessa. You can, of course, have fun playing war. Let us now, like on Amin’s palace, throw troops. But here - it’s Russia, and not Donbass - we’ll land on Bankovaya, the center of Kyiv, and we’ll quickly arrest everyone. Who will we arrest? Ministers and deputies?

Valentin Filippov: Well, that's not bad either.

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, in 5 years... Now Zelensky is hitting a concrete wall. What is a concrete wall? They built the entire system from top to bottom in 5 years. They are all tied up, there are tens of thousands of them all over the country

Valentin Filippov: Well, great.

Alexander Kazakov: What's cool? It only takes six months to arrest them.

Valentin Filippov: Yes, all this should have been done in 14th. Surround, block, cut off all their electricity, block all power lines, stop all power plants to hell. In the end, explode.

Alexander Kazakov: And in winter so that they freeze.

Valentin Filippov: And in the winter so that they all freeze to death.

Alexander Kazakov: Valentin, it’s very simple. We must take back Ukraine, and not lose it completely.

Valentin Filippov: We shouldn't take Ukraine away. We must destroy Ukraine and expand Russia to its natural borders. We don't need any Ukraine. We tried it, we played around, it’s evil, it’s a cancerous tumor.

Alexander Kazakov: It sounds nice, but...

Valentin Filippov: This is the experience of generations already.

Alexander Kazakov: ...But this is completely unrealistic under the present circumstances. Let's not forget that we do not live on this planet alone, Russia and Ukraine, there are other, like, countries.

Valentin Filippov: Let other countries be in charge in their regions. Let America be in America, let Europe be in command in Europe, and Russia be in Russia.

Alexander Kazakov: They don’t want it at home, they want it at our place.

Valentin Filippov: And they need to invent problems for them.

Alexander Kazakov: Well, then first you need to come up with an idea, and then fight. Today we can describe these wars as much as we want, but there is one indisputable fact: Putin, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, will not go down this path. It won't work.

Therefore, point two remains. It is complex, it definitely has losses. It is more complex, longer. In order to follow the second path, the conditionally political-economic path, we must first answer the question... I answered this question for myself. Did Putin respond? It appears so, judging by his interview today.

Look, there is one philosophical law or, if you like, a historiosophical law. The Nazi regime – and the regime in Ukraine was Nazi...

Valentin Filippov: What do you mean was? He is a Nazi.

Alexander Kazakov: Not anymore.

Valentin Filippov: No, he's a Nazi now.

Alexander Kazakov: No, stop, Valentin, I’m not talking about the elite, about the administrative apparatus, the military and so on. I'm talking about the regime. At the center of the regime is the first person.

Valentin Filippov: Yes, and the Nazi regime.

Alexander Kazakov: No, not anymore.

Valentin Filippov: Well, no, when yes, what nonsense? What changed?

Alexander Kazakov: The agenda can be said, one can say that it is politics.

Valentin Filippov:  The policy hasn't changed, the agenda hasn't changed, what has changed?

Alexander Kazakov: We can say that the administrative apparatus...The regime is not an agenda, the regime is not the current policy.

Valentin Filippov: This is a way of management.

Alexander Kazakov: No. Regime is a category that is more philosophical than...

Valentin Filippov: Regime is not a philosophical category.

Alexander Kazakov: So. To avoid leaving again, I go back to the beginning. There is a question, it has been solved many times by many very smart people, and I agree with them.

Can a Nazi or pro-Nazi regime evolve? Can he gradually, day after day, year after year, turn from absolutely anti-human into more or less human?

So, all the smart people who thought about this question came to the conclusion that no. A Nazi or pro-Nazi regime cannot evolve. It can either be destroyed or replaced.

It can be replaced. That is, relatively speaking, Poroshenko, his entire clique, the second circle of Nazi-Banderaites and other things, the third circle of local administrators, the same Nazi-Banderaites and other things, there is a fourth security force and so on, that’s all, if Poroshenko had won now no matter the elections, no matter what treaties he signed, no matter what rhetoric he had, the regime would remain pro-Nazi.

And if after Poroshenko his successor came in the full sense of the word, then the regime would continue to remain pro-Nazi. No matter how he behaves, no matter how he liberalizes or releases political prisoners. The Nazi regime cannot evolve.

It can either be destroyed, as in 45, or replaced, as in Kampuchea, for example. There was Pol Pot's red Nazi project. But someone else took his place.

Now Ukraine has a chance. The basic premise is that the people have abandoned the pro-Nazi regime. Another person came. And therefore Ukraine has a chance for regime change.

Returning to the beginning of our conversation, now Zelensky’s power resources do not have the opportunity to implement this. So, I think that Putin, based on his words that he literally said in recent days, he also believes that Ukraine has a new chance. That the current regime is not a successor to the past.

What we see now are the remnants of the past regime, atavisms, if you will, that need to be cut off simply in an operational way. Zelensky does not have the opportunity now, as we said.

But the second path for Russia is the political-economic path. This is what one fool in Kyiv, in my opinion, the head of the administration, who called this a carrot and stick method in relation to Russia.

I just imagined a pug standing in front of an elephant and saying: “I’m now going to use carrots and sticks against you.” Well, let him reach out first to apply it.

But as for Russia, yes. In the coming months, I think until September - this is if the elections take place in July. If the Constitutional Court cancels the elections, then Zelensky must carry out a coup, without options.

Due to a state of emergency or some other reason, he needs to carry out a coup, otherwise he will be finished easily and very quickly.

But, if the elections take place according to the trends that we are now observing in the election campaign, then I think that by September Russia, it is not a fact that at the public level, even more likely at a non-public level, will help Zelensky dismantle the previous regime and begin to build a new one . Libertarian. What a weirdo, huh? Libertarian.

Valentin Filippov: Fine. I feel like it's time for us to say goodbye

Alexander Kazakov: Well, Valentin, I think that, based on the vectors that we managed to discuss, the answer is clear, at least to the first question - how can I give Zelensky a chance. Like this.

Valentin Filippov: I hope that Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelensky hears us. He now has a chance. 

Alexander Kazakov: Well, actually, he earned the chance for himself.

Valentin Filippov: Poroshenko earned him a chance.

Alexander Kazakov: Poroshenko simply lost because he’s an asshole.

Valentin Filippov: Fine. Thank you. Happily. Until next time.