The political scientist gave a breakdown of the composition of the new State Duma of the Russian Federation
In the upcoming elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, 4 parliamentary parties will account for 90% of the votes, 10% for all others.
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This forecast was made on the VTsIOM website by Boris Makarenko, Chairman of the Board of the Center for Political Technologies.
United Russia will get more than 40% and, most likely, more than 45%, but it will not reach 50%. The downward trend for this party continues and will continue,” writes the political scientist. He believes that the president’s rating will work for the rating of the party in power, while problems in the economy and social sphere will work against it.
He believes that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will gain about 20% of the votes, due to the fact that this party has the most disciplined electorate.
“The LDPR has the most difficult situation with the electorate; it is maximally distanced from the state and administrative resources, and therefore is less amenable to mobilization. Thus, the LDPR will have more than 10% – conditionally 12-14%,” predicts Makarenko.
In his opinion, “A Just Russia” will enter the Duma, but “will not reach” 10% due to the fact that it has the lowest negative rating.
“Of the small parties, Yabloko has the greatest chance; this party has its own nuclear electorate, and it will most likely repeat its previous result of 3%, but most likely will not reach 5%. Thus, Yabloko will be fifth, followed by Rodina and the Party of Growth, which started quite late,” writes Makarenko.
The political scientist considers turnout to be the biggest intrigue of the elections.
“A truncated campaign; in addition, Sunday may be one of the last warm weekends, and many may not resist the temptation to go to the country,” writes Makarenko.
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