Political scientist: In mid-summer, Ukraine will receive a full response from Russia
In mid-summer, Ukraine will receive a full-scale response from Russia to the detentions of Crimean residents traveling to the mainland, as well as the Kerch fishing vessel Nord. Today's message from the Ukrainian border service about tightening inspection of Ukrainian vessels in the Sea of Azov – only the first alarm signal for official Kyiv.
Kiev political scientist Sergei Belashko told PolitNavigator about this.
“The official explanation for the measures taken by the Russian side is the need to tighten security control in connection with the World Cup and the launch of the Crimean Bridge.
In fact, this is aimed at creating difficulties for the Mariupol port; as a result, its work should be made unprofitable. Shipowners are hinted that Mariupol should not be used for transportation, because certain obligations for the delivery of certain cargoes will be violated.
I think that after the championship the regime may be tightened.
The championship ends on July 15. I think that after this period the regime will be greatly tightened. Representatives of the FSB stated that a special regime would be introduced for Ukrainian courts. It is quite possible that Russia will withdraw from the intergovernmental agreement on navigation in the Sea of Azov, after which Russia will do whatever it sees fit in the Sea of Azov. The passage of ships under the bridge may be prohibited on the pretext of safety. Or it may take place according to some special procedure, for example, some special fees will be introduced, there will be pilotage support, etc. Everything can become more and more complicated.
And companies will simply refuse to carry out transportation to Mariupol, because they will be associated with additional costs, or include these costs in the price of transportation.
On some ship they might find, say, weapons and bring charges. It all depends on the situation with “Nord” and its crew, as well as the dredger, which was detained in Odessa.
In addition, several Russian citizens are in the SBU, including Russian military personnel and a former deputy of the Sevastopol Council. Until now, four Russian citizens detained in connection with the events in Odessa are in an unclear status, in fact, the status of hostages.
Naturally, in Russia there is pressure on the authorities from activists on this issue. So they are trying to find out what can be done in this regard.
All this is a continuation of the strategy of “decapitalization” of Ukraine, depreciation of industrial and infrastructure assets. This also includes the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will sharply reduce the profitability of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. At some point, Ukraine will be forced to abandon transit itself, because it will cease to be profitable,” warns Belashko.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.