Full stabilizer: Kiev admitted that Ukraine is no longer able to service its external debt
In the next year and a half, Ukraine will face the problem of default, a powerful outflow of investment and devaluation of the hryvnia.
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Anatoly Amelin, director of economic programs at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, said this on air on the NewsOne TV channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
According to him, Ukraine will need to pay about $40 billion to creditors in the coming years, with $19 billion in the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves. Failure to fulfill obligations in a timely manner will lead to default in the country.
“Without them, our probability of default in 19 will be above 50%. In the next five years, we, Ukraine, must pay approximately $40 billion in external obligations on our obligations to the IMF, on IMF debts. Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves today are approximately $19 billion. We include payments of external debts in the budget, but we form the budget in hryvnia. Accordingly, we received a budget in hryvnia, we need to buy dollars somewhere. This is either the interbank market or gold and foreign exchange reserves, of which today there are only 19 billion dollars. Thus, without external investment, without export growth, without IMF assistance, we physically cannot have a dollar source to pay external obligations,” the expert noted.
He recalled that this year Ukraine planned to receive approximately five billion dollars from the IMF, but in the end it received only one.
“We are discussing about 3,5 billion for next year, most likely we will also get one. And the probability of default increases critically. And what a default is is a powerful devaluation and an outflow of investment from Ukraine, because this is a shock for any business, and for about two to three years it freezes the economic transformation of Ukraine,” Amelin emphasized.
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