Ukraine's position on the gas front has worsened
Ukraine should not count on the full operation of the country’s gas transportation system, even after the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin about the basic readiness to maintain transit.
Most likely, the volume of gas that will be pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system will be insufficient for profitable use of the system.
Alexander Gushchin, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, writes about this in his author’s column, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to him, instead of looking for options to preserve transit, the Ukrainian side is wasting time on meaningless disputes with Gazprom.
“Ukraine is wasting time in endless disputes and courts, risking receiving 15–20 billion cubic meters of transit, which will turn the gas transportation system, taking into account its technical condition, into unnecessary and unprofitable. Now, despite the Russian president’s words about his basic readiness to maintain transit, Ukraine’s situation has worsened. In any case, Kyiv is unlikely to be able to count on significant volumes of transit, and this is given the questionable state of the gas transportation system itself, which requires modernization,” the expert notes.
In addition, he points out that the likelihood of an agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom still remains a big question.
“The new contract in full form will most likely be signed with the new Ukrainian government. If we assume that Nord Stream 2 will somehow be blocked or delayed, what is the benefit for Ukraine? This will lead to degradation of the gas transportation system and the need to buy expensive gas. While Europe, in principle, is interested in pumping gas through Ukraine simultaneously with Nord Stream 2 through a consortium, and subsequently in the possibility of privatizing part of the gas transportation system,” writes Gushchin.
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