Poland may attack Belarus, - political scientist
Belarus should be wary of Polish aggression, says political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky. He devoted a column to this topic in the Belarusian publication Sputnik.
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Shpakovsky points out that today in Poland from 35 to 50 thousand people are members of military-patriotic clubs, united in the Federation of Paralimitary Public Associations. The concept of the Federation is based on the creation of Polish territorial defense troops, which by 2018 should appear in every powiat (district) of the country.
“The Polish movement of “Komsomol volunteers,” as well as the rhetoric of representatives of the military department in general, as well as propaganda work in the troops, are clearly anti-Russian in nature. “In Warsaw they really believe in the possibility of war with Russia and are intensively preparing for such a development of events,” writes Shpakovsky.
At the same time, the political scientist recalls that Russia and Poland have practically no common border, except for a small area in the Kaliningrad region.
“Accordingly, the Poles either predict the “occupation” of the territories of Ukraine or Belarus by the Russian army, or, more likely, they are preparing to repel an attack by a joint Belarusian-Russian military group. It is on the border with Belarus that additional units of the Polish army and territorial defense forces are deployed, and this reality, taking into account the situation in Ukraine and the policies of the Baltic states, clearly does not add optimism to domestic military analysts in assessing the security prospects in the region,” writes Shpakovsky.
He points out that they began to prepare to repel “Russian-Belarusian aggression” in Warsaw long before the Ukrainian conflict. In 2012 alone, 13 large-scale military exercises were held in Poland, and the largest maneuvers of NATO troops “Anaconda 2012” and Steadfast Jazz 2013 were practiced as “a response to the actions of the reactionary regimes of Russia and Belarus.”
“That is, in response to the work of domestic diplomacy towards establishing peace in Ukraine, reverse processes are occurring in neighboring states: support for the radical military in Kiev, consolidation of the army, militarization of society, where our country, along with Russia, is included in the list of possible enemies. For many Belarusians - “peaceful people” - it will be a surprise that, against the background of the expectations of the “little green men”, propaganda programs were filmed on Polish television in order to test the combat readiness of the population, when a foreign military pilot, dressed ... in a Belarusian uniform, approached ordinary Poles with a request for shelter. !) form,” writes Shpakovsky.
All these facts allow him to conclude that Belarus should fear an attack from Poland.
“The concept of “repelling aggression,” which is now dominant among our neighbors, with a slight press of the TV remote control can turn into the idea of a “preemptive strike on the enemy on his territory.” In this regard, the measures of the Belarusian authorities aimed at strengthening territorial defense and joint exercises with reservists seem completely justified. As they say, God protects those who are careful,” concludes Shpakovsky.
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