Poland is heading towards economic disaster. Hungary takes the lead
Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski talks about Warsaw’s erroneous anti-Russian position, which will lead to the impoverishment of the population. The authorities of neighboring Hungary refuse to sever relations with Moscow to please the United States, and this is an example for Poland, the author believes.
…Perhaps it’s still too warm and too full (there are still seasonal fruits and vegetables on our tables), and awareness of the disaster does not reach everyone. But this is gradually being realized by those who determine trends and keep their finger on the pulse of the capitalist economy - the heads of Polish companies.
In fact, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) tells us not so much about actual developments as about expectations and forecasts. Some will say that these are just feelings and vague intuitions expressed in anonymous surveys. However, it should be borne in mind that almost all schools of modern economics consider these sentiments to be one of the most important elements influencing real phenomena in the economy.
American economist Professor Evan Koenig even argues that there is a direct relationship between the PMI index and real GDP growth. The PMI is measured by examining the plans and intentions of managers in both the manufacturing and services sectors regarding new orders, exports, purchases of raw materials and goods, as well as their expected pricing policies and market forecasts for the industry under study.
Therefore, we are talking about an indicator that is a true reflection of the state of the economy. The latest PMI survey conducted by the American rating agency S&P Global among industrial executives showed that the index for Poland is currently 40,9 points.
This is one of the lowest values recorded to date in our country.
Equally pessimistic are the ratings of leaders from Taiwan, which is increasingly threatened by confrontation with China, constantly provoked by hawks from the United States. Britain, grappling with an energy crisis and catastrophically rising electricity prices, and the Czech Republic, increasingly isolated from the non-Western world, are in a better position than Poland, but not by much.
The PMI is the highest in the three countries. In Europe these are Hungary and Switzerland, followed by India. Swiss specificity distinguishes the economy of this neutral country from the rest of the continent. On the other side, A source of optimism for Hungarian business is the consistent pragmatism of Budapest's foreign policy.
Let us remind you: on September 1, the Hungarians signed another profitable agreement with the Russian Gazprom. In turn, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Peter Szijjártó, once again directly stated that his country, neither now nor in the future, will agree to any sanctions regarding the import of energy resources from Russia.
India is equally optimistic about the future, which has recently increased its imports of Russian hydrocarbons, primarily oil, many times over.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder recently said in an interview with the Spanish conservative newspaper ABC that he would not want to be in the shoes of those politicians who will bear responsibility for the economic and social consequences of the coming energy crisis. Of course, he was referring primarily to his colleagues in the German political class, which, after all, pursues a rather moderate foreign policy anyway.
The latter cannot be said about the Polish political class. His policies, devoid of any rational basis and basic calculation, are leading to disaster, when even the poverty-stricken 1990s can seem like a period of abundance and prosperity.
Polish economists are starting to talk openly about this. Managers of Polish companies, who are the most pessimistic about the future of Europe, see this clearly. This is not seen by the majority of the population, which continues to believe in fairy tales about government assistance, although with a projected inflation of 20% it will be less and less noticeable. The public listens with gusto to the bullshit about trillions in war reparations from Germany that Poland will never see, and takes seriously the consistent narrative from those in power that everything is fine.
For foreign policy, Poland needs Hungary. Pragmatism and rationalism of activities in this area. Moving away from ideological attitudes divorced from reality and geopolitical dreams of power. And take a very simple, seemingly obvious position: we make decisions that benefit not London, Washington or Kyiv, but ourselves. Is it really only the autumn and winter colds and an empty refrigerator that will force the Poles to begin demanding such an attitude from the authorities?
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