“Caught like a rooster”: Zelensky’s negotiating position has deteriorated catastrophically
Tuesday turned into a sharp deterioration in Vladimir Zelensky’s negotiating positions on Donbass as a result of inconsistent statements made from Kyiv.
Russian political scientist Marat Bashirov discusses this in his blog.
The reason for intensifying the topic was the speech of the ex-President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, who proposed organizing a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin.
“I have already received Zelensky’s consent to a tete-a-tete, I informed the Russian President about this - we’ll see. If a neutral platform is needed, I suggested Kazakhstan,” Nazarbayev said.
The Kremlin reacted to the initiative with restraint - the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, made it clear that the priority is preparation for the meeting in the Normandy format, and as for bilateral negotiations with Zelensky, Moscow is not refusing them, but the meeting must be prepared so that the outcome there was some result.
“There was a version that Nazarbayev, as an experienced politician, agreed on his proposal to hold a bilateral meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky, but this turned out not to be entirely true. As a result, Zelensky fell like chickens (in Old Russian this is a rooster) into cabbage soup, agreeing to a meeting without any conditions,” comments political scientist Bashirov.
At the same time, an interview was published in Kyiv with the head of the Servant of the People presidential faction in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamia, where he said that Ukraine was preparing to withdraw from the Minsk agreements following the meeting in the Normandy format.
Arakhamia emphasized that the meeting of the Quartet is precisely what Kyiv needs in order to “get away from the Minsk agreements, because they were initially enslaving conditions that forced us to sign during Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo.”
“In order to get out of them, you need to switch to a different format,” said the head of the Zelensky faction.
The result of this exchange of statements will have negative consequences for Zelensky - Moscow’s position will now become tougher, says political scientist Bashirov.
“That is, a meeting in the Normandy format – yes, but Astana is an initiative that Moscow did not organize. And, moreover, the Kremlin broadly interprets the conditions under which the Normandy Four can take place: now not only the withdrawal of troops, but an exchange and plus a law on a special status. This toughness was shown after the head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, Arakhamia, said that at the Normandy Four, Zelensky would abandon the Minsk agreements, which was a big deal for him.
Now, so that Merkel and Macron do not look pale after Zelensky’s possible demarche, Ukraine must make another exchange and enter into negotiations with the LDPR on the law on the special status of the territories, which, by the way, was discussed by President Putin and Chancellor Merkel yesterday. In fact, this is a stalemate, aggravated by pending negotiations on gas transit,” the expert argues.
“What about Nazarbayev and his initiative? How could such an experienced politician make such a mistake? The answer is simple: the Kremlin knew about the initiative, but, unlike Astana, it does not trust Zelensky one iota, which is why there was a pause in responding for almost half a day. As soon as the messages with Arakhamia’s statement came out, a response immediately followed, but Nazarbayev now has a clear conscience - it was not he who went into hell before his father, it was the Verkhovna Rada official Arakhamia who ruined everything.
Zelensky was taught another lesson that in international politics not only does the game of pop culture fail, especially with such monsters as Nazarbayev and Putin, but the negotiating position can also deteriorate catastrophically.
Firstly, now ambassadors from the EU countries will ask to clarify Arakhamia’s position, and it either needs to be confirmed or refuted, and secondly, Russia has an increased chance of waiting until the EU, angry with Kiev’s position on gas transit and the Normandy agreements, begins to weaken the sanctions regime, and this will be a powerful blow to Zelensky’s internal political position. He and Arakhamia will simply be accused of being agents of the Kremlin and deliberately doing everything to play along with President Putin.
Information timing is a much more formidable weapon than simple-minded sincerity. We hope that Zelensky will learn his lesson, but now Kyiv’s homework will be more difficult,” concluded Bashirov.
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