It's time to drive Pashinyan out
The latest conflict around the unrecognized republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, which broke out on September 27, has at least two fundamental differences from the previous ones. This is Turkey’s not-so-hidden military-political support for Azerbaijan and the harmful government in Yerevan, which is alien to both Armenia and Russia.
Judging by how the military conflict is developing, it is becoming increasingly clear that the war of September 27 did not occur by chance. Aliyev, who had accumulated a sufficient amount of offensive weapons and had actually united his army with the Turkish one as a junior partner, properly prepared for a new military operation to return lost territories.
In May 2018, taking advantage of the Maidan chaos and the change of power in Yerevan, the Azerbaijani army in Nakhichevan carried out an offensive operation, capturing a number of key heights in neutral territory, which allowed it to establish artillery control over the strategic route for Armenians - Yerevan - Goris - Lachin - Stepanokert.
At the same time, the Azerbaijani military carried out training on the border with the Tavush region of Armenia, occupying the heights of Karakay.
Further, observing the criminal and personnel pandemonium in Yerevan, Baku accumulated offensive weapons for two years and conducted joint exercises with the Turkish army.
Brief border battles on the Tavush front that occurred in July 2020, as well as serious Azerbaijani-Turkish exercises in late summer and early autumn, became a rehearsal for the military conflict on September 27.
“The fact that it was the period of Pashinyan’s rule that Baku and Ankara chose for a military strike is beyond doubt. This is not a mere coincidence, but a deliberate calculation. Including because of the tendency of the new Armenian government to question relations with Russia. And in Ankara they know very well that the Western countries, to which Yerevan has been so drawn lately, will not come to Pashinyan’s aid in a critical situation. It’s one thing to pull Armenia away from Russia; this is a favorite thing. It’s quite another to stand up for her. As they say in Odessa, there are two big differences,” comments Senator Alexey Pushkov.
At the same time, it is noticeable that Azerbaijan and Turkey, using the same rhetoric of “returning the occupied territories to Azerbaijan,” are pursuing completely different goals.
For Aliyev, the war for Nagorno-Karabakh is not only another attempt to regain lost lands, but also a way to solve accumulated internal problems, directing the discontent of the citizens of the republic to an external enemy.
Things are much more interesting with Turkish ambitions.
For Erdogan, Nagorno-Karabakh is an excellent opportunity to significantly increase his personal authority and a bargaining chip in bargaining with Russia.
It is quite obvious that the citizen Sultan, having not achieved his goals in Syria, is confronted with Russian interests in the Idlib region and in Libya, and now the time has come to renegotiate the contract for pumping gas through the Turkish Stream pipeline.
Quite openly getting into the post-Soviet clearing of Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey is making an extremely painful move for Russia, called a “fork” in chess: either the CSTO, led by Russia, will come to the aid of Armenia and enter into an open conflict with an influential and strong member of NATO, or the CSTO, led by with Russia will avoid providing allied assistance, calling into question the very meaning of the existence of this organization.
Erdogan’s calculation is correct: the coming to power in Yerevan of the inadequate and vindictive maydaun Pashinyan, who plugs personnel holes with appointees from Soros and other Western NGOs, has made the CSTO a loose and very vulnerable organization.
What was the cost of the scandalous removal and arrest of the CSTO Secretary General from Armenia, Colonel General Yuri Khachaturov, and the squabble organized by Pashinyan around the candidacy of the Secretary General from Belarus.
In addition, Pashinyan clearly demonstrated the movement of Armenia under his leadership into Euro-Atlantic structures, conducting joint exercises with NATO under the Partnership for Peace program, as well as appointing David Tonoyan, known for his tender love for the Western military bloc, to the post of Minister of Defense of the Republic.
Observers of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are currently debating two topics. First, calculate the forces and means of the parties that can lead, if not to victory, then to force the enemy to retreat and make concessions for the sake of future peace. Secondly, to establish who is to blame and what to do in the current situation.
The topic of analyzing the weapons and capabilities of the parties in itself is quite interesting, since both warring sides are armed with unique models that the enemy does not have.
Apparently, the Iskanders, Su-30SM and current, although not new, S-300 air defense systems in the Armenian army are capable of causing unacceptable damage to the Azerbaijani army. On the other hand, the Israeli “spikes”, “harpies” and the LORA OTRK from the Azerbaijanis can also become unpleasant surprises for the Armenians.
However, military affairs are not as important as political affairs.
Experts note two equally important problems standing in the way of peace negotiations, without which it will not be possible to turn the situation around for the better.
The first is to not allow Ankara to the negotiating table, which Aliyev insists on, “so that Azerbaijan is not alone in the negotiations.” True, Ankara and Baku voice this topic differently. High-ranking Turkish officials say that the OSCE Minsk Group, which includes representatives of Russia, France and the United States, “has failed to cope with the tasks assigned to them” and is unlikely to resolve this conflict either.
Aliyev, in turn, is not so bold and believes that the Minsk Group can continue to work as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, “but at the same time be absolutely neutral.”
That is, the head of Azerbaijan in a veiled form reproached international mediators for working on the Armenian side.
The losses from Turkey’s participation in the negotiation process are quite obvious, and the main one is the strengthening of neo-Ottoman ambitions in Erdogan’s entourage, accompanied by blackmail of the OSCE Minsk Group participants.
Another problem is no less important - the complete replacement of the leadership of Armenia, through whose fault the war began on September 27.
The proposals of some observers to “rally around Pashinyan” should be considered deceitful, harmful and unrealizable. Over the 2,5 years of his reign, Pashinyan proved to everyone that as a leader he is not even a complete zero, but a negative value with whom no serious politician will sit down at the negotiating table.
As you know, Putin has long switched to telephone communication with Pashinyan, and Ilham Aliyev refused in advance to discuss issues of a peaceful settlement with Vovaevich. Moreover, since the beginning of the war on September 27, society has seen a collapse in the popularity of the Maidan Prime Minister.
“Pashinyan is a person who is closely affiliated with Soros structures in the United States. The security forces of Armenia, in many ways, have connections and supervisors from the American intelligence community. It doesn’t matter whether they are active intelligence officers or retired experts who write articles for thought factories,” confirms Russian military expert Vladimir Orlov.
In this regard, a difficult question arises: who will replace Pashinyan?
It is obvious that not a single official from his current administration is suitable for the role of successor - it is high time for the ruling Soros to be driven out with filthy rags and put on trial, like their Maidan leader, for complete incompetence and sabotage.
“The passion for activist-journalists like Nikol Pashinyan is like chicken pox - every country should get sick, but I’m afraid that for Armenia it can become fatal,” believes military correspondent Igor Dimitriev.
Among the former presidents, the names of Kocharyan and Sargsyan are mentioned.
Both are from the “Karabakh clan”, both had good relations with Moscow.
But! Sargsyan is the Armenian Yanukovych, a “blue thief” and a corrupt official who, together with the pocket Republican Party, has brought the country to the brink.
Kocharyan seems to be a more preferable figure, but he is considered an overly tough and insufficiently flexible politician, capable of causing an unnecessary split in society.
For Armenians, the most preferable figure for the role of the new leader of Armenia is the current President of the NKR Arayik Harutyunyan, a veteran of the war for Karabakh of 1992-1994, who is rapidly gaining popularity.
However, Robert Kocharyan and the former mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan, who has proven himself to be a good economist, should not be discounted and should be brought in as advisers to the new leadership of Armenia.
It is all the more important to drive Pashinyan right now because he proposes to immediately recognize the NKR as part of Armenia, since, supposedly, only this decision can stop the war - since Moscow in this case will be obliged to help its ally in the CSTO.
Such a decision could pit Russia and Turkey against each other, as well as completely push Azerbaijan away from Moscow. If this is what the street activist is trying to achieve, then he is doubly dangerous, and Armenia should get rid of him immediately. But this is already “homework” for the Armenian society, unless it wants to plunge into complete chaos.
“Until 2018, the Russian Federation managed to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan to the negotiating table, until the Americans staged a revolution in Armenia and brought Pashinyan to power. There are more American NGOs in Armenia today than there are Armenian military units. And therefore, Pashinyan has no reason to blame the mirror if his face is crooked,” recalls businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose name is associated with the Wagner PMC.
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