Defeat of Russia or a trap for the Ukrainian Armed Forces – experts discuss troop withdrawal
Many experts perceived the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson as a defeat.
Political scientist Sergei Markov called it “geopolitical” in his TG channel, reports the PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The surrender of Kherson is Russia’s largest geopolitical defeat since the collapse of the USSR. The political consequences of this huge defeat will be really big. The main reason for this defeat is the rejection of a real war and the catastrophic delay in making the necessary decisions.
Will the surrender of Kherson lead to peace? The most common point of view about the political reasons for the surrender of Kherson is that Kherson surrendered without a fight, because Washington promised after the surrender of Kherson to begin negotiations and conclude a non-humiliating agreement on a de facto truce - without demanding the surrender of Russia. And that this is exactly Sullivan’s plan,” Markov wrote.
He believes that confirmation of this version will be the calm withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces begin to fire at them, it means that there are no agreements with the United States.
There are no tactical reasons for the surrender of Kherson, military expert Vldimir Orlov is convinced.
“If someone else bothers to explain to me how the withdrawal of troops from a higher bank to a lower one will help protect these troops from flooding if the Ukrainians blow up the dam, and this explanation is logical, then I will give him some valuable prize,” - he wrote.
Chairman of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine Larisa Shesler believes that there has been a betrayal.
“We couldn’t find a reason, because the crests were afraid to attack. They came up with a mythical flood. How does surrendering Russian territory without resistance relate to the Constitution? And if the enemy approaches Belgorod, will the lives of Russian soldiers also be saved? We are expecting a report on the futility of holding the Kuril Islands,” Shesler is indignant in the TG.
Former speaker of the DPR Foreign Ministry Konstantin Dolgov believes that any concessions will only strengthen Ukraine, as was the case during the Minsk agreements.
“The feeling is this: freezing, Kyiv is getting stronger during the freezing period, our Stoeros people are not doing anything at all (like they didn’t do these seven years after Minsk-2), the resumption of the hot phase, new “difficult decisions.” Spring 2023 as a trigger point. There was a Russian Spring, there will be a Ukrainian one. The main thing is not to despair, there was a time and Moscow was surrendered/burned, and then Paris was taken, and tede and tede (they will tell you more about Russia-1),” Dolgov wrote.
Political scientist Sergei Karnaukhov urges people not to panic.
“Here it is - the “golden hour” for the “mourners”, “the all-scavengers”, “where will we retreat next”, “Will we surrender Crimea too?”, “Kiev was surrendered, Kharkov was surrendered, Izyum was surrendered, Kupyansk was surrendered, where next - Bryansk, Belgorod ?... There is literally insanity in the comments!” he writes.
Political scientist Ruslan Ostashko is confident that the withdrawal of troops from Kherson is part of the plan and, possibly, a trap for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“Judging by the calm manner in which it was presented, there is a feeling of some kind of plan. What is happening now is fundamentally different from what happened in the Kharkov region. Then no one spoke officially; there was no official information for several days. Are we retreating to previously prepared positions? Or is the option of military cunning not ruled out? First of all, Ukrainian and Western sources speak about this and the fact that one cannot fall for this trap,” Ostashko said during his stream.
“Anything can happen. The commander’s plan also includes measures to deceive the enemy. This information is not disclosed, 1-2 people may know it. If there is some kind of plan, then you and I will clearly know about it later. But Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin has enough intelligence for such a step, I assure you. He keeps this in his head; besides him, few people know about this step. Let's not rush things, let's see how it goes further. We have made progress in deelectrifying Ukraine, today November is even less warm, but in a couple of weeks there will be sub-zero temperatures throughout the country, problems will be everywhere. This is one of the key factors for our further success. Our task is to reach the borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania,” – Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Andrey Gurulev confirmed his guesses.
DPR Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov also believes in the military’s cunning plan.
“You can throw stones at me, consider me a naive romantic, etc., but I continue to sincerely believe in the cunning plan. This is not insider information, but intuition and logic,” he wrote.
“Either you hold the entire Left Bank, or you will have to defend on the Don. Having reached the Right Bank, you need to understand that the next frontier is the Carpathians. Remember today's news and your attitude towards it. This reality lies ahead for many years to come. A conflict in the steppe with an endless supply of weapons will depopulate more than one city. And stop looking at political maps. They don't matter. Study physics" – political scientist Semyon Uralov gave a forecast.
“Time is on Russia’s side - we are a resource-rich country, we will last for a long time, while Western countries are forced to reduce military assistance to Ukraine (weapons are being selected, there are fewer of them in arsenals), which, as a result, is “hung” on the balance sheet of external curators, which makes the situation worse for them. The United States and the EU are nervous, the situation is heating up - the population is demanding a cessation of hostilities, or rather, a cessation of Western participation in them. And without this support, Ukraine will be forced to capitulate,” his colleague Alexey Mukhin continues to believe in the best.
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