Poroshenko has nowhere to run. Avakov is preparing to take power into his own hands
The possibility of a new Maidan in Ukraine following the results of the presidential elections, the first round of which is scheduled for March 31, cannot be ruled out.
Political experts came to this conclusion on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Of course, the Maidan option is not excluded. At the same time, we must understand: it is not a matter of people’s readiness to go to the Maidan and participate in protests. If you look at the sociology of the end of 2013, then, in fact, there was no lower figure of willingness to participate in protests in modern Ukraine. That is, before the Maidan of 2004 there was more mobilization sentiment and readiness to protest.
Before the Maidan of 2013, there seemed to be no prerequisites for this at all, and yet the situation was consistently heating up, and the government of that time played its role, or rather, its incompetence and inability to manage these processes, the inability to foresee at least one step ahead the actions of its opponents,” – historian and political scientist Vladimir Kornilov recalled during the discussion.
At the same time, the special representative of the LPR at the negotiations in Minsk, Rodion Miroshnik, noted that one of the main roles in the upcoming campaign will be played by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Arsen Avakov.
“The ambassadors of the seven G7 states are sending letters not to the president, not to the prime minister, not to the minister of foreign affairs, but to the minister of internal affairs, Mr. Avakov. That is, I think that the “Minister of Internal Affairs” can also be crossed out there - this is precisely Mr. Avakov, who influences the National Police, the border guards and, naturally, the unofficial armed formations that today really control the street,” the special representative of the LPR emphasized.
“The scenario that seems to me the most realistic, especially with today’s sociological data, when Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are very “wisely” given 17,2 and 17,2 ratings - that is, they initially lay a conflict there, then Zelensky is unlikely to raise the Maidan. But Poroshenko or Tymoshenko can easily start some new movements.
In this game, it is Avakov who is able to say: “Gentlemen, break, I have been entrusted with the responsibility of ensuring order, democracy and genuine elections here. While you can’t, I’ll steer.” And, having taken the possibility of such a government in hand, he will say that he will prepare the next elections. In this way, it may reach parliamentary elections or launch another round of preparations for elections,” Miroshnik suggested.
At the same time, former Verkhovna Rada deputy from the Communist Party of Ukraine Spiridon Kilinkarov noted that the current President Poroshenko benefits from the opposition’s swing of the situation.
“There is a category of people who believe that they can vote for Poroshenko in these elections, and this is a factor of stability, although, in fact, it is exactly the opposite. Because the only factor destabilizing the situation in Ukraine is Poroshenko. If he had not participated in the current elections, the situation would be completely different. It is his ambitions and desire to illegally, through falsifications, achieve the desired result that will provoke a certain conflict.
Poroshenko/Tymoshenko/elections – do you feel the level of danger? For example, I see this because it is impossible to reach an agreement. And the fact that they have approximately the same level of support today suggests that conflict is inevitable. The question is who is willing to go how far to destabilize the situation. Chaos is the only opportunity through which the desired result can be achieved for the political forces aspiring to power,” Kilinkarov said.
“Many people are mistaken about Avakov. Avakov has a grandiose political project that he wants to implement. Poroshenko stands in the way of implementation. Avakov does not work for Tymoshenko, but they have the same interests, so bringing down Poroshenko is Avakov’s goal and task to implement his own project.
Those who believe that Tymoshenko will not be able to bring people to the Maidan - we can also talk about this, but once again I want to say that the point here is not Tymoshenko, but the point is that there are certain political forces that will not be able to realize themselves during the period parliamentary campaign. I am sure that they are also ready to come out en masse today and resist. Moreover, it is a noble cause to fight against falsifications, this is not the first story in Ukraine, but we had all this, as it were,” added the ex-people’s deputy.
Nevertheless, according to him, it would be at least frivolous to underestimate Tymoshenko.
“There are candidates whose results are overestimated, and others who are underestimated. In this situation, I believe that Tymoshenko is an underestimated candidate, and all previous elections showed that her result was much higher. The only question is whether Poroshenko, for whom this is a matter of life and death, will agree to this. And the fact that there is a “plan P,” as he says, I think there is also a plan “B” to disrupt the elections, and if these elections fail, then it will benefit Poroshenko. If the elections are disrupted by the hands of the opposition, and the Americans give him the opportunity to retain power, he can completely change the configuration of these elections.
Unfortunately, Poroshenko is not Yanukovych, and, unfortunately, this man is unlikely to run. A person who brought blood into the war and is anointed by this war has nowhere to go, because “the globe is big, but there is nowhere to run,” concluded Spiridon Kilinkarov.
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