Poroshenko is betting on Russian passivity
To re-elect Petro Poroshenko for a second term, his staff will rely on the low turnout and passivity of the Russian electorate. In these conditions, it will be enough for Poroshenko to gain the votes of the nationalist minority, having previously mobilized it with even more radical anti-Russian actions.
This opinion was expressed at a press conference in Kyiv by the director of the Agency for Social Communications, Sergei Belashko, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
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“It is already obvious that Poroshenko will rely on the “patriotic” electorate due to its activity and sufficient mobilization. But Poroshenko will mobilize in his favor through conflicts, divisions, oppositions,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, there are two systemic conflicts that will allow this to be done.
“The first is Ukrainization. Since Ukrainization, decommunization, etc. have already been carried out, there will be some attempts to artificially continue this process. For example, all education has already been translated into Ukrainian. Now they will carry out repeated Ukrainization - introduce lessons in patriotism, etc. They will pump up the target electoral audience with such actions.
Perhaps there will be a third wave of Ukrainization, de-Russification, “the fight against the imperial legacy.” If during the first wave they renamed streets named after the “executioners of the Ukrainian people”, the second - streets that were somehow connected with the Soviet period of Ukrainian history, now they will rename the streets of Tolstoy, Pushkin, Herzen, Chernyshevsky, etc.,” says expert.
The second conflict is attacks on the Orthodox Church.
“During the New Year period, there was a whole series of coordinated provocations, behind which the SBU stood; they used the so-called radicals, who are under the cover of the SBU.
I think that this trend - the formation of an image of the enemy, stories about “Moscow drinkers”, which “promote the Russian world and separatism”, will be used to form and maintain conflict lines in Ukrainian society. And thanks to these conflict lines, the “patriotic” electorate will be mobilized, which can give these 10%, which will turn into 20-25% (I do not rule out that the turnout will not exceed 40%).
And the former electorate of the Party of Regions will increasingly leave politics,” says Sergei Belashko.
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