Poroshenko cannot afford to delay the issue of Donbass until the fall – experts
Moscow - Kyiv, July 7 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The likelihood of protracted fighting in the Donbass is approximately the same as the likelihood of a quick suppression of the militias, according to military experts interviewed by Kommersant. At the same time, Petro Poroshenko can hardly afford to stretch out the operation until the fall.
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“There is an influential group of hardliners around the president. Even if Poroshenko wanted to follow the path of compromises, concessions and half-measures, these people would not allow him to do this, especially now,” says Ukrainian political scientist Dmitry Ponamarchuk.
However, an assault on Donetsk with a population of millions using artillery and aviation could turn into a humanitarian catastrophe with a huge number of civilian casualties. If the militias themselves do not leave Donetsk and Lugansk, the Ukrainian army will probably have to take these cities according to the Slavyansk scenario - a long siege, cutoff of communications, cessation of supplies, evacuation of most of the population. Moreover, even to capture Slavyansk with its (initially) 110 population it took two months.
But Petro Poroshenko can hardly afford to drag out the operation until the fall. And this gives a chance to resume dialogue both within Ukraine and in the international arena - within the contact group and in other formats.
Thus, in the current situation, Moscow seems to be banking on a political and diplomatic settlement in Ukraine. Judging by the position of the foreign ministers of Germany and France, key European powers are inclined to do the same. And both the militia leaders and Kyiv will have to reckon with this. The first will have to abandon calls for Russian military intervention, the second will have to give up hope of suppressing resistance in the east solely by force, experts say.
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