Poroshenko is in trouble
In Kuchma's former security adviser Gorbulin, the clerk continues to rage sporadically. From time to time, Gorbulin wakes up from hibernation in his personal NISI (National Institute for Strategic Studies) and begins to generate scenarios according to which the fate of Ukraine may develop in the near future.
In fact, Gorbulin’s forecast scenarios can hardly be called analytics, since none of them came true even partially. Moreover, Gorbulin in his vangs demonstratively does not see the deep split in Ukrainian society, but at the same time, he undertakes to broadcast with a blue eye that Ukraine has every chance of defeating Russia in a total war. In addition, Gorbulin somehow very carefully avoided the topic of external governance of Ukraine. In his vision, Ukraine is a united, sovereign, powerful country from a military-technological and economic standpoint. And she also has impeccable authority in the world.
If Gorbulin’s forecasts resemble anything, they are the writings of a man who, in his old age, discovered a taste for the genre of alternative history. Gorbulin has a slightly different opinion about himself. In one of his scenarios, he claims that the “elite” settled in Kyiv (to which, of course, he includes himself) is armed with some kind of strategic vision that will help it crush the tacticians who are attacking Ukraine after the victory of the Maidan.
Nevertheless, reading Gorbulin’s “alternatives” is quite interesting, if only for the reason that he has been involved in issues of defense and national security of Ukraine for a very long time, and also acts as an adviser to Ukrainian presidents from Kuchma to Poroshenko.
It’s another matter what kind of hole all these advice and questions have led Ukraine into, but let’s be lenient: what doesn’t happen to people for whom the process is much more important than the final result.
The fresh reason that pulled Gorbulin out of his lethargy can be explained simply – the inauguration of Donald Trump. But the reason for awakening lies somewhat deeper. Quiet for six months after the prophecy about an inevitable big war with Russia, the powerful expert old man decided to remind himself with a new strong forecast.
The grandfather, who fell into an alternative reality, did not disappoint here either, voicing a scenario according to which the “big deal” of Putin and Trump on Ukraine will not take place without the consent of Kyiv.
They say that there are too many obstacles and slingshots between Russia and the United States to give Kyiv a place. Firstly, they are not monopolists in the international arena. Secondly, there is no consensus among the majority of international actors on the Ukrainian issue. Thirdly, Kyiv was not asked. And this moment was especially offensive.
At the same time, Gorbulin cites Syria and Bashar al-Assad as an anti-example, which are supposedly entirely dependent on Russian military assistance, and without it have ghostly prospects for survival. It’s different – Ukraine. Without its consent, you see, no deals can be implemented, since Ukraine is sovereign, strong and self-sufficient, while “American PMCs” and “help from the American military” are the machinations of enemies and the inventions of Donbass “separatists.”
Gorbulin chose to carefully avoid the topic of supervision of Biden, the CIA and NATO structures, but the point is not about them. The sum of all the fears of Gorbulin and those who stand behind him is the following: in Kyiv they were seriously frightened by the New Year's article published by the German publication Bild about the possible involvement of Kissinger as a mediator between Moscow and Washington to extinguish the Ukrainian conflict.
Bild became aware of Kissinger’s words that Russia should supposedly be given “domination in the former Soviet republics from Belarus and Ukraine to Georgia and Kazakhstan.” On Ukraine, Kissinger proposes the following compromise: Russia “guarantees the security of eastern Ukraine and gradually withdraws from there.” In turn, the West is closing the “Crimean issue”. The Russian ownership of Crimea will not be officially recognized, but will cease to be a topic between the United States and Russia.
The concept has allegedly already been called “constructive cooperation” and “normalization of relations,” and direct negotiations are currently being conducted through the Russian Ambassador to Washington, Sergei Kislyak.
For clarity, let us erase the incorrect word “domination”, since in this case we are talking about recognizing Russia’s right to influence, ensuring security and integration policy in the space of the former USSR. As for Gorbulin, in his forecasts, he clearly views the prospects for Ukraine’s return to Russia’s orbit and the inclusion of integration mechanisms as a national catastrophe with the final abandonment of the dream of a European future.
Commenting on the possibility of Kissinger's participation in developing a solution to the conflict in Donbass, Gorbulin draws historical parallels with the 1973 Paris Peace Agreement on Vietnam. As is known, Kissinger was directly involved in the development of a peace plan, according to which the United States began to withdraw its troops from South Vietnam, stopped its military and economic support, shifting the burden of war onto the shoulders of the native regime, which allowed the communist army of North Vietnam and the Viet Cong to very quickly put an end to puppet state and unify Vietnam.
It is interesting that Gorbulin compares Ukraine to “democratic South Vietnam.” The comparison is delicious, since the regime in Saigon relied on the bayonets of American interventionists, had a pronounced repressive-dictatorial character, practiced mass extrajudicial killings, torture and kidnappings of undesirables, was corrupt to the extreme, carried out military and punitive operations against compatriots, and very soon went to hell as soon as found himself cut off from outside help. The retreat of the interventionists and their lackeys from Saigon before North Vietnamese troops entered the city is a textbook event. The Kyiv and Saigon “democrats” are even united by the monstrous rampant banditry and prostitution in the controlled territories.
I think expert Gorbulin hit the bull’s eye here.
Having climbed into the wilds of the Far East, Gorbulin suddenly remembers that China has not yet said its weighty word on the Ukrainian issue, which, according to the expert, is the true enemy No. 1 for America, and not some kind of Russia.
Honestly, all of the above would be enough to admit the fact of senile insanity in the adviser to the Ukrainian presidents. But the ellipsis he left, “let’s wait for what Chairman Xi says,” finally confirms the diagnosis. Although it is clear where the air vent is open.
Over the past week, the Ukrainian media has literally been torn apart by the number of attacks on the fan about how China will help Ukraine fight with Russia. Obviously, the news was triggered by the recent short meeting between Xi Jinping and Poroshenko in Davos, at which the head of the PRC expressed agreement that “we need to meet more often” and, looking into Petino’s honest face, diplomatically and correctly spoke out in support of all the good against all the bad.
The seriously ill Kyiv patients, as usual, began to interpret Chinese protocol politeness in their favor, for some reason immediately forgetting about a lot of events: China’s recent vote at the UN General Assembly against the Ukrainian resolution, and how Poroshenko was not invited to the G-20 meeting in Hangzhou, and the fact that for China the situation around Taiwan and the Spratly archipelago is much closer to the body than the problems of the Kyiv raguli regarding the return of Crimea and Donbass. Not to mention the fact that official Beijing tirelessly emphasizes strategic cooperation with Russia.
I don’t want to talk about the harem maneuvering in the thick of the icebergs and the desperate attempt to find protection at the center of power, at which they recently short-sightedly giggled, pointing with dirty fingers, even in the most mocking terms: stupid and greedy rats have driven themselves into a corner and are now rolling their eyes, looking for saving holes for escape.
Apparently, the Kyiv junty, swaggering and puffing out their cheeks, voice through Gorbulin their worst fears: to be left alone when others have decided everything for you in advance, and it’s time to pay the bills.
It will be interesting to see what and how Kyiv will object when Putin and Trump determine the fate of Ukraine.
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