Poroshenko will have to send troops into battle even against his will
Ukraine is unlikely to risk an open military confrontation with Russia, but may try to provoke the Russian side into a military strike
War correspondent Alexander Kots writes about this in Komsomolskaya Pravda.
It is noted that the most realistic scenario of a possible Ukrainian provocation is a strike on Donbass.
“Throughout December, Ukraine gathered additional troops - first to Mariupol. But when Moscow officially announced the preparation here Kiev offensive, Ukraine began to build up its group Gorlovki(see map). The idea is simple - to cut off the LPR from the DPR. And to justify the attack, a staging of chemical sabotage is being prepared (for this purpose on Ukraine specialists arrived from UKwho have carried out more than one such provocation in Syria),” writes Kots.
The author calls another option an escalation on the border with Crimea, pointing out that Ukraine will not dare to launch an open offensive, but can, for example, shell Crimea in the Perekop region in order to cause return fire, the results of which will be filmed by foreign journalists.
The third option, the journalist notes, is to send it to slaughter warships through the Kerch Strait.
“Turchinov even invited me to participate in this adventure of Western observers. I didn’t take into account one thing - Russia can easily let Ukrainian ships through, unless, of course, they start getting impudent and violating everything in the world. There is also a fourth option. Exotic, but very real - attack Transnistria, where Russian peacekeepers are stationed. The fifth option is completely stupid. But today’s Kyiv is capable of this too – a provocation on the border of mainland Russia. For which you will have to answer. And then in all cases - screams in the press, from the podium UN and so on,” the military correspondent believes.
He is convinced that behind all these preparations there are ears sticking out West, and also reminds thatand Ukraine has about 500 military instructors from 7 countries, and, according to DPR military intelligence, 72 instructors are directly involved in the battles in Donbass.
“Kyiv can hardly be suspected of independence. Therefore, if in Washington or London If they give the go-ahead, Poroshenko will have to send troops into battle even against his will,” Kots sums up. – If the provocation is “successful”, he will receive rating bonuses. Or at least an assurance of support in the elections. And the West is a reason for new sanctions against Moscow.
Washington's special motive is to use aggravation to persuade Europe ban the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. To then sell this Europe expensive gas from USA. Poroshenko’s goal is not to win anywhere. In the case of Russia, he has no chance. And he knows it. Therefore, he will shout in a bad voice: “Help, hooligans are depriving you of your sight!”
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